Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 252020
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

DISCUSSION...

PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TUESDAY WITHIN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH
TO SOUTH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MIXED LAYER CAPE WAS NEAR 2000
J/KG BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR AS TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE TYPE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO END THE WEEK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN AS EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A FRONT ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARCHING SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST WHICH DOMINATED THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WEAKENING OF THIS
RIDGE...A WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW GROUND FOG AND HAZE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

FOSTER/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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