Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260445
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

AS EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BUT ALL IN ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

WISE

&&

DISCUSSION...

PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TUESDAY WITHIN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH
TO SOUTH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MIXED LAYER CAPE WAS NEAR 2000
J/KG BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR AS TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE TYPE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO END THE WEEK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN AS EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A FRONT ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
PREDOMINANT AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO MITIGATE DENSE FOG
THREAT. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO IFR GROUP AT KBBG WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD IS ALREADY NIL. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING ON THESE
MAY BE A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS IN FROM
KANSAS AND SPARKS NEW ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THINK THE
MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND STORMS. INCLUDED CB IN PREVAILING FOR NOW UNTIL
TIMING AND PLACEMENT CAN BE BETTER DEFINED.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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