Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 261850
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
150 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES. CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEE CONFINED ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAS IN PLACE. THE LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT SEEMED TO BE THE INHIBITING FACTORS TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MORE FOCUSED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A LINGERING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. A VORTICITY LOBE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI EASTWARD. HOWEVER THE OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN OUTSIDE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OZARKS.
THIS WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
HAVE ONLY MODEST IMPACTS ON DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. THIS MAY CAUSE A WEAK FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR
MEMORIAL DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON MEMORIAL DAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AERODROMES IS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED STORMS MAY
INITIATE ALONG THE OZARK PLATEAU...BUT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. A
DRYING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS
DRYING AND THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY WILL LIMIT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT.
MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD. BRANSON WILL HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR FOG
AS THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS HAVE MORE LOCAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FROM THE NEARBY LAKES.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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