Friday, May 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281656
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE AH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE OZARKS FOR MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH ORIGINATED IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKING FOR A
NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD INTO SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN RESPONSE TO COOLING
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

THIS INTERACTION WILL ACT TO PRODUCE A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WORK WEEK STARTING MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS
WAY THROUGH THE OZARKS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STALL
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
OZARKS INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS OCCURS...THE REGION COULD SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS IS PRETTY FAR INTO THE FUTURE HOWEVER AND WILL
NEED TO WAIT A BIT TO GET A CLEARER PITCHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR 1800Z TAFS...VFR WITH NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24H. WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG
UNDER CALM WINDS AROUND DAWN. SEASONALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SSW TOWARD TEXAS. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
TOPPLE EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD...ERODING THIS DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE SOMEWHAT.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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