Monday, May 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMP END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE SOLUTION OF
STALLING OR WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM INDICATING THAT
SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2300 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
AVAILABLE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION OF BETTER LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EASTERN KANSAS WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE SAGGING FRONT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WHILE THE INSTABILITY OUTPUT OF THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE A BIT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING STRONG TO
POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND THOSE OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST WEATHER ACTIVITY.

THE WASHED OUT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG IT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFFECT THE OZARKS.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND PUSHES ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. MODELS HANDEL THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
A BIT DIFFERENTLY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH AND LEANED
TOWARDS THE SREF/ECMWF DEPICTION WITH THE FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DEVELOPS A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL OZARKS THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PERSISTS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY/TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PROGRESSIVELY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT I DO NOT WANT TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE PERSISTS AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

BELIEVE SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE TO RADIATING COOLING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADDED INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING (INCREASING WEST TO EAST) AS WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

WISE/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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