Monday, May 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LAGGING A BIT AS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ERODE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

WILL STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SHORT LIVED STORMS. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE STORMS...FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
STALLS TONIGHT AND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS HINT AS
SOME NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SO THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION.
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL OZARKS THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PERSISTS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY/TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PROGRESSIVELY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT I DO NOT WANT TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE PERSISTS AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

BELIEVE SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE TO RADIATING COOLING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADDED INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING (INCREASING WEST TO EAST) AS WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

WISE/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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