Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 262326
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT
LAKES. CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEE CONFINED ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WAS IN PLACE. THE LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER ALOFT SEEMED TO BE THE INHIBITING FACTORS TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MORE FOCUSED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A LINGERING
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. A VORTICITY LOBE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI EASTWARD. HOWEVER THE OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN UNORGANIZED CONVECTION AND AN OUTSIDE
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OZARKS.
THIS WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT
HAVE ONLY MODEST IMPACTS ON DAY TIME TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. THIS MAY CAUSE A WEAK FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR
MEMORIAL DAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON MEMORIAL DAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY ON MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE
CONFIDENCE IN A TAF SITE BEING AFFECT IS LOW AND WILL JUT INCLUDED
VCTS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE KBBG SITE THAT A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AS BEEN ADDED.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TOMORROW...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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