Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 252345
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
TUESDAY WITHIN AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH
TO SOUTH SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MIXED LAYER CAPE WAS NEAR 2000
J/KG BUT THERE WAS VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THERE IS A
LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. LOCALIZED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES.

THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING. GIVEN THE MOIST CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED TODAY...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNDERNEATH THE HIGH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SIMILAR AS TODAY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE TYPE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO END THE WEEK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN AS EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A FRONT ATTEMPTS
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT THE KJLN SITE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF CB IN THE CLOUD
GROUP AT KJLN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT AFFECT THE KSGF AND KBBG
SITES THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT SOME LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GROUNDS ARE
NOT OVERLY MOIST AT THE SITES DUE TO THEM NOT SEEING A LOT OF
RAIN TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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