Monday, May 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310523
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTIVITY
WAS SUPPORTED BY A MOISTURE PLUME THAT ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. A VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDED
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
13. THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT BEST AS LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR IS IN PLACE. LOCALLY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SOME MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.

SOME QUESTION EXISTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. A SIGNAL EXIST FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR AT LEAST
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN MIGRATE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE 90 DEGREE
MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS. CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

FOSTER

&&

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COOL AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA
KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FOG. ALREADY SEEING VISIBILITIES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
VFR CATEGORY AT KSGF AND KJLN DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH KBBG ALREADY HITTING MVFR CRITERIA. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING DUE TO A DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...DID INCLUDE IFR LATER TONIGHT AT KBBG.
STUCK WITH MVFR AT KJLN AND KSGF. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE LATER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI ALONG OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...SO HAVE JUST MAINTAINED VCTS AND CB
MENTION IN PREVAILING GROUPS. THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY STORMS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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