Monday, May 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312337
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED
BY LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AND SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SEVERE RISK WITH THESE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
INTERCEPT THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER THE MID
EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

GAGAN

&&

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LAGGING A BIT AS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ERODE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

WILL STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SHORT LIVED STORMS. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE STORMS...FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
STALLS TONIGHT AND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS HINT AS
SOME NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SO THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION.
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS AS ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SGF AND BBG. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND INTO
OK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS THIS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MUCH
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTERNOON/EVENING CU ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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