Thursday, May 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CONVECTION IS DEFINITELY ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD...CLIPPING SOUTH CENTRAL MO...HOWEVER THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE SHRINKING IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR.
OUTSIDE OF A ROUGE SHRA...LOOKS LIKE THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE
DRY WITH SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.

GAGAN

&&

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES
TO CREEP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POP SO FAR TODAY...AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPS WARM. THE ONLY POSSIBLE ORGANIZED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MAY BE WITH A WELL DEFINED MCV DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THIS MCV WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE SGF CWA THROUGH PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WITH LITTLE ELSE TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AND THE 12Z SGF
AND TOP RAOBS SHOWING RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT...REALLY WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TODAY THAN
IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS...ANY STORMS THAT DO GET GOING WILL
HAVE THE CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A RISK...OWNING TO VERY
SLOW SOUTHERLY STORM MOTION.

ANY CONVECTION IN THE AREA SHOULD WANE PRETTY QUICKLY WITH SUNSET
AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TONIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEARING TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR BUILDING
INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF INTO THE
60S OVERNIGHT.

IT WOULD CERTAINLY APPEAR THAT THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR A
BEAUTIFUL FIRST HALF OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WITH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE NEAR CARBON COPIES OF EACH OTHER.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S DURING THE DAY...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 SHOULD BE THE
RULE BOTH DAYS.

BOXELL

&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SOLUTION OF A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THIS LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE AND
COULD EVEN RETROGRADE WEST WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL
CAP. WITH A WEAKENING OF THE CAP ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FURTHER WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIVING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS THE OZARKS. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE OZARKS WITH THE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND REMAINING A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

ANGLE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE
MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AT JLN/BBG...OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO EASTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CU DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE
LESS IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...STORM
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO CONSIDER FOR THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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