Friday, April 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302300
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

..OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.

..CURRENTLY...
12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP QUICKLY ERODED
DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z SOUNDING WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR WAS
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-400 M2/S2
HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY HAVE SEVERAL
DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER SHOWERS ON RADAR.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

..FORECAST...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST. ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND
AM NOT EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT THE SITES TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE BBG SITE AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BBG DURING THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-
105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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