Friday, April 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010355
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

UPDATE...

STRONG DEEP CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED. WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RESULTING
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP
QUICKLY ERODED DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z
SOUNDING WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER
SPEED SHEAR WAS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH
300-400 M2/S2 HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION
HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY
HAVE SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER
SHOWERS ON RADAR. DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

FORECAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES
INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST.
ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN STALL FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-
105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com