Saturday, April 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242031
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
331 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRONG LINE OF
STORMS HAS DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM PLEASANT HOPE TO GROVESPRING
THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ALTON. DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ALONG THIS LINE WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 6O MPH.

A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALLOWED
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 400 TO 800 J/KG RANGE. FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS PREVIOUS STORMS HAVE WORKED THE AREA
OVER...HOWEVER SOME INSTABILITY STILL EXISTS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE AND SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE AS
IT PUSHES EAST NORTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS THIS LINE PUSHES INTO THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE WILL BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THIS
LINE OF STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

EARLY THIS EVENING THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO THE SEVERE THREAT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WRAP
AROUND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA. WIDE SPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
INSTABLTIY WILL BE LIMITED SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...RETURNING HIGHS IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STRONG
STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA. DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM AND TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO BE ABLE TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

&&

AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
ENDS THE RAIN TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AND POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

CROWE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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