Friday, April 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301940
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

..OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.

..CURRENTLY...
12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP QUICKLY ERODED
DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z SOUNDING WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR WAS
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-400 M2/S2
HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY HAVE SEVERAL
DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER SHOWERS ON RADAR.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

..FORECAST...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST. ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF
JLN SHOULD AFFECT JLN AT THE ONSET OF THE 18Z TAFS AND SPREAD EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. HAVE DROPPED CEILINGS WITH
THE CONVECTION TO AROUND 2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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