Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271912
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CDT TUE APR 27 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW OFF TO TH SOUTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND IS NOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS
OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX AS THE RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT A CHILLY LATE APRIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED...AS LOWS SHOULD DROP
WELL INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW AREAS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BEHIND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WARMER TREND WILL THEN OCCUR AS HIGHS WARM
INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AND INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS
WILL REALLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 45
MPH AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GFS...WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO
THE WEST UNTIL FRIDAY.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME TOGETHER SINCE YESTERDAY... AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AMPLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL AS GOOD SURFACE
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND SATURDAY.
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK GENERALLY UNSETTLED IN BOTH
SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS. INTO MONDAY... THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE MAIN SUPPORTING TROUGH QUICKLY DEAMPLIFYING AND
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST... THUS CLEARING OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTIONS DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE SIMPLY IS NO STRONG SIGNAL BEYOND THE WEEKEND TO
PUT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES... NONE OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME THAT WOULD SUPPORT LARGE SWINGS IN
OVERALL TEMPERATURES.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
REMAINS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL HOOVER
AROUND THE 3000 FOOT RANGE FOR A COUPLE AREAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WILDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS HIGHS PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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