Saturday, April 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..SEVERE POTENTIAL UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT MIDDAY WITHIN A REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING AROUND
THIS TROUGH INTO ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS INHIBITED THE PRODUCTION OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVED OUT OF ARKANSAS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...THE OVERALL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS DIMINISHING.

A MUCH GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
BUT DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25 WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE AND
PROLONGED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
ENDS THE RAIN TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A LOWERING CLOUD DECK AND POSSIBLE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

CROWE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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