Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282331
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WARM AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION...AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AND HAS INCREASED AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
REALLY START KICKING IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THESE WIND SPEEDS
ARE WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AS
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PULL
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FEEL MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AS THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN ANY CAP THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. COUPLE FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM INTO A MCS AND
DRIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASED. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA...AS VERY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASED. IF THESE
OCCUR A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL LIKELY...BUT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAYBE LESS LIKELY.

FEEL THERE WILL AT LEAST BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
SUPER CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK ON FRIDAY TO SIGNIFICANT IN
THE EHWO AND HWO ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE. AND HAVE LEFT AN ELEVATED RISK
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP A
SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT AS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE WARMUP.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

ALL PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY 45 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
PRIMARY DIRECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL BE
FROM 200 DEGREES.

THIS DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED CHANGE WITH HEIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF
THE JOPLIN...BRANSON...AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS.

NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

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