Thursday, April 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN AND IS BEING MET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY RELAX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND GULF MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MOISTURE IS SURGING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TOMORROW.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR CLOUD
COVER...ONE IS FROM CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER IS STRATUS POSSIBLY
FORMING AND SPREADING NORTH WITHIN THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY.

FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING THE CAP TO SOON...AND THE CAP
WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE
WILL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED THE EHWO SEVERE RISK LEVEL TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A SEVERE WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT....AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO GENERALLY
MOVE BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

WISE

&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. WHILE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA.
SHOULD ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE 80S.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT...WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN STRENGTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTER AND THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM INDUCE CONVECTIVE LIFT IN THE REGION.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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