Monday, April 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260555
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 AM CDT MON APR 26 2010

..UPDATE TO PUBLIC AND AVIATION...

UPDATE...

ADDED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 71. CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TO THE NORTH
WITH A FEW OBSERVING STATIONS INDICATING SOME OF THIS IS REACHING
THE GROUND

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER WESTERN INDIAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRACK OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER ENOUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS HERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO EMBEDDED WITH
IN THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEK
BRINGING WARMER WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
THERE STILL ARE DIFFERENCES WILL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE ALSO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.
THE 12Z GFS DID SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUN...HOWEVER IT STILL REMAINS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTIVITY PERIOD LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

AT THIS TIME EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHERE IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND REMAIN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
PUSH AND HOW QUICKLY GOOD QUALITY GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN TO
REALLY DETERMINE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD
ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT STALLS AND ENERGY FROM
THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHES ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME FEEL
THIS WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS LIFTS TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND WAIT
FOR BETTER DETAILS ON THE TRACK...TIMING AND SMALL SCALE FEATURES
TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS ON THE AREA.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AT KSGF AS A
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. ADDED VCSH AT KSGF AS PATCHY
DRIZZLE PERSISTS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES SOMEWHAT IN MVFR POTENTIAL
AT KJLN AND KBBG AS THEY WILL TEND TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE BEST
MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KJLN WILL HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR...SO HAVE GONE THE TEMPO GROUP ROUTE. MVFR SHOULD BE MORE
PREVAILING IN NATURE AT KBBG...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE
WERE BOUTS OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP MONDAY EVENING...BUT
ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THIS SCENARIO FURTHER WITH INCOMING MODEL DATA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com