Saturday, April 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 240807
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIVING THE SEVERE
WEATHER MACHINE THIS MORNING...CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING
THIS FEATURE EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY AND
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
STATE LINES. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS AND LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE OZARKS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EASTERN KANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. CAPE VALUES AND BULK SHEAR REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 TO 80KT 500MB JET...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FUEL A MCS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS STEERING MECHANISM AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AS THE MCS MOVES NORTH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 80 TO 85 KT RANGE ALONG WITH CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE MODES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AND BACKING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALSO MAKE THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE THE OZARKS ONCE AGAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING THE RETURN OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY
AND AFFECTS THE OZARKS REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
TIMING ANY TSRA...WITH AN INCREASE CONCERN FOR IFR CIGS AT BBG/SGF
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID/UPPER
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW. THE RISK FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
INCREASE AFTER 09Z AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS PRETTY SMALL AT JLN AS THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THROUGH THIS AERODROME AROUND SUNRISE. THE RISK FOR TSRA WILL
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AT SGF/BBG IN PERIODIC BOUTS. THE FIRST
BEING PRIOR TO SUNRISE...THE SECOND TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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