Sunday, April 25, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250809
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
309 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW
NOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE
REGION. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER...ALBEIT
WEAKER...UPPER LOW RIDES SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WITH
THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW MOVING OVER THE
OZARKS...CANT RULE OUT CONTINUED SHOWERS AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AND NO REAL FORCING OTHER THAN THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PROVIDED BY THE LOW ITSELF...SHOULD SEE JUST SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AS CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. AS A RESULT WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S.

THE REGION WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK WHEN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THE RIDGE MOVE INTO
THE AREA...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WARMER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DO STILL HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND LATER RUNS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO HELP
PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
REGION...THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH PLACEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
EASTERN STATES WILL MAKE THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE DIFFICULT.
THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WOULD FORCE GULF
MOISTURE TO TAKE THE LONG ROUTE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOK LIKE IT WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS
PANS OUT THOUGH AND WHAT WEATHER THIS WILL BRING TO THE OZARKS.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXACT TIMING OF ONSET IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT ALL SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TAF SITES SOMEWHERE IN THE 11Z TO
16Z TIME RANGE. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS BEGINNING TO COME UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DID INCLUDE VCSH IN PREVAILING GROUP AT KSGF INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS LIGHT SHOWERS PUSH OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND INTO THE
GENERAL VICINITY. BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com