Saturday, April 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241141
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS DRIVING THE SEVERE
WEATHER MACHINE THIS MORNING...CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING
THIS FEATURE EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TODAY AND
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS
STATE LINES. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS AND LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE OZARKS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...EASTERN KANSAS AND BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. CAPE VALUES AND BULK SHEAR REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70 TO 80KT 500MB JET...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FUEL A MCS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS STEERING MECHANISM AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AS THE MCS MOVES NORTH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 80 TO 85 KT RANGE ALONG WITH CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE MODES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL HELICITIES AND BACKING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WOULD ALSO MAKE THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL PLACE THE OZARKS ONCE AGAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL SHIFT EAST AND OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD BRING THE RETURN OF
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY
AND AFFECTS THE OZARKS REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. LIFR FOG WILL CONTINUE EARLY
THIS MORNING AT KBBG AHEAD OF THE RAIN. PREVAILING MVFR IS THEN
EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KSGF AND KBBG...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KJLN WILL
REMAIN VFR AS MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE RAIN WILL
THEN END THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AS TWO COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE
AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT SIGNAL FOR LOW STRATUS BEHIND
THE SECOND FRONT LATE TONIGHT. INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS FOR THIS
PERIOD.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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