Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Wed Night forecast discussion

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
LAID OUT ACROSS MISSOURI AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN LIFT
ALONG THE FRONT...LIMITED CAPE IN THE 100 TO 300 JKG RANGE...SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM. EXPECT
THAT THE REGION WILL SEE FAIRLY GOOD RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL FALL ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY
THE WINTER STORM FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH IF INTERSTATE 44. SAW LITTLE
REASON TO ADJUST THIS AT THIS TIME THOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE STORM PROGRESSES.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY...AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.

HATCH

&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. GFS CONTINUES WITH A QUICKER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW AND OPENS UP THE WAVE BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN PLACE AND IT HANGS
AROUND MUCH LONGER WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING LONGER INTO THE
WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START
TO WARM BACK UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARKS THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA AND
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.