Saturday, March 27, 2010

Saturday Morning forecast discussion

Early Saturday morning, here's the forecast discussion from the National
Weather Service:
Art


A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TODAY THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE
RETURN. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT REALLY ANY DEEP RICH GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AS THE GULF IS PRETTY SCOURED OUT FROM THE LAST SYSTEM
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DOES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A COLD CORE ALOFT. THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AND THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE LOCATION TO THE LOW. THERE WILL DEFINITELY
BE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF GOOD
MOISTURE...STORM BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH LIMITING ANY TORNADO
THREAT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS EVENING...A LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE NEARING THE MO/AR
BORDER...WHERE A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD OCCUR. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED FROM THE
RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION. THEREFORE...FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT WILL TAKE LITTLE RUNOFF TO HAVE RISES ON
AREA STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME AND COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.