Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302019
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

A LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH. NO SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAIN ABSENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...A 45 - 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ASSUME A
POSITION DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS. MEANWHILE...NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 20 TO 28
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARNING HERE. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED OR BRIEFLY MET THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF 65 AND NORTH OF THE PLATEAU.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW MINOR
DIFFERENCES. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME. AM
THEREFORE EXPECTING SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY SERVICE...THE DEPARTMENT OF
CONSERVATION...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...WE DECIDED TO HOIST A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A
VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE. FINER FUELS SUCH AS
PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE
GROWTH.

THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINER FUELS ACROSS THE
FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN
AND SNOWFALL. FUEL LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-
102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com