Monday, March 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292014
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FEATURE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON FIRE WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE ALREADY
HAVING AN IMPACT IN THE LOW LEVELS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS NOTED
INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CRANK UP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL ONLY INCREASE AND SPREAD
EAST AS WE GET TOWARDS MIDWEEK. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND. MODELS PROG 925 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE TEENS
CELSIUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PLATEAU. MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE. BUOYS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE LOWER 40 DEW POINTS WITH A
HOWLING NORTHWEST WIND. THUS THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SLUG
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IS THE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WE
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE DRY DAY THIS WEEKEND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING RIDGE WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST IS THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR LATER ON TUESDAY. WHILE
SHEAR VALUES MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP NEARING 18Z AT JLN...THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IMPACT LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

CCC

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN STARTING TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR. MODELS SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW
POINTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THIS AREA...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SECOND...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE MET FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AT BEST. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BIGGER DAY.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRAIRIE
GRASS. 10 HOUR FUEL STICKS EVEN TODAY ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS OVER
MANY AREAS. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...AN EVENTUAL WATCH AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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