Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS THE REGION SQUARELY IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS HAVE STAYED BREEZY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS STILL NEARING 30 MPH IN THE
OSAGE PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES STAY QUITE MILD THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SPLENDID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME. THIS WILL
NOT COME WITHOUT ITS ON PERILS...HOWEVER...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTING CONTINUED CONCERNS FOR
TODAY. WILL STILL OBSERVED OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS...THOUGH THIS
WILL NOT LIMIT SUNSHINE MUCH IF AT ALL. 925/850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AREA WIDE. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...00Z MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKING DISTURBANCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING OR
INTENSITY IS NOTED. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
BLOSSOM ALONG A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND MORESO FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC
MOISTURE RECOVERY STILL LOOKING ON THE MEAGER SIDE...LOW/MID 50S
AT BEST...THUS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. STILL NEED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND IN MIND...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...EXITING STAGE
EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY ONWARD...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...WITH MID 70S
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH MID MORNING
AIDED BY AN 850MB SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ANGLE

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE AREA WILL STRADDLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MIN
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND
FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 7 PERCENT. WHILE 20 FT WINDS
LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA...GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP 30 MPH
ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE.
THIS PRIMARY CONCERN IS FINER FUELS...SUCH AS PRAIRIE GRASSES...
WHICH WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID AND INTENSE FIRE GROWTH.

PER THE REQUEST OF THE USFS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WILL REMAIN
UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT FINER FUELS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE LATEST INFO
FROM THE USFS INDICATES THAT SHRUB MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH VISUAL GREENNESS ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WHICH IS A LITTLE AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MIN RH VALUES WILL STRADDLE
CRITERIA IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH 20 FT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA. CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA
CONTINUE TO BE ANY PRAIRIE GRASSLANDS WHICH HAVE YET TO FULLY
GREEN AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH GIVEN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. INTERAGENCY AND WFO
COORDINATION WILL OCCUR AT START OF THE WORKDAY TO DETERMINE THE
NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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