Monday, March 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEALS WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...LEAVING
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARDS THE AREA BUT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE LOW
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...AND WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL
OUTPUT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING
IS BETTER AGREED UPON. STILL PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING RIDGE WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST IS THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR LATER ON TUESDAY. WHILE
SHEAR VALUES MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP NEARING 18Z AT JLN...THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IMPACT LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com