Friday, November 5, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 051046
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WITH A NICE WARM UP TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS ARE CO-LOCATED
BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NEBRASKA...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S
IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER BUT STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOOVER AROUND FREEZING HERE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO CREATE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY WEAKEN TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SPREADING INTO THE AREA
WITH THIS COLDER AIR MASS. DESPITE TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND WILL BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS THEY HELP TO USHER THE
WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AND FEEL MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN RETURNING
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE UNDER-CUT MODEL DEW POINT
VALUES BY QUITE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS AND ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. AGAIN SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OVER THE CWA TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL OF GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AT
SGF/BBG ONCE MIXING BEGINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A WEAK INVERSION
MIXES OUT AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...LIKELY LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER TOO AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS THESE HUMIDITIES ARE REALIZED.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO
QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 25
PERCENT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SCHAUMANN/WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 050806
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WITH A NICE WARM UP TO END THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS ARE CO-LOCATED
BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NEBRASKA...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S
IN THESE LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER BUT STILL ON
THE COOL SIDE TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING.
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOOVER AROUND FREEZING HERE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TO CREATE SOME GUSTY
WINDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY WEAKEN TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HIGH PUSHES INTO
THE AREA. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SPREADING INTO THE AREA
WITH THIS COLDER AIR MASS. DESPITE TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A VERY COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOME LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS THESE AREAS WILL RECEIVE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND WILL BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY AS THEY HELP TO USHER THE
WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...AND FEEL MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN RETURNING
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE UNDER-CUT MODEL DEW POINT
VALUES BY QUITE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE WARM AND DRY AIRMASS AND ALONG WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. AGAIN SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE EXACT TRACK...TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010/

FOR THE 05/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ABOVE A FAIRLY WEAK SFC
INVERSION TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ONCE THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT AFTER 05/1400Z...BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AS A WEAK INVERSION
MIXES OUT AFTER 9 AM THIS MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY...LIKELY LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER TOO AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AS THESE HUMIDITIES ARE REALIZED.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO
QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND OR BELOW 25
PERCENT WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SCHAUMANN/WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 050500
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT FRI NOV 5 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT EVENTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH GIVEN
MODEL RUN TO RUN AND 12Z MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER
COLUMN INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...RESULTING IN
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH SUNSET. SHORT FUSE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT WHERE NORTHERN TRAJECTORIES AND
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO LIKELY END GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...THOUGH FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED A HARD
FREEZE A WEEK AGO.

STILL COLDER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CERTAINTY FOR
THE SEASONAL END OF ALL UNPROTECTED PLANT GROWTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED ON FRIDAY AS WEAKER WINDS
AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OFFSET DRY CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT THOUGH
WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARMING HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MEAN TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED
EARLIER FORECAST THINKING THAT SLOWED THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRY AFTERNOON RH INTO THE LOWER 20S
WHILE SURFACE WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH...ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT ON
SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS KICKED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.

OVERALL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS CONVERGING ON A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH...THOUGH AM LEFT WONDERING HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010/

FOR THE 05/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ABOVE A FAIRLY WEAK SFC
INVERSION TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ONCE THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT AFTER 05/1400Z...BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC HIGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...BUT GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH
RELATIVELY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ONCE A WEAK INVERSION MIXES OUT
AFTER 9 AM. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS WILL
QUITE LOW ON FRIDAY...LIKELY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOO.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY
WERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO
QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN/DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 042327
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT EVENTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH GIVEN
MODEL RUN TO RUN AND 12Z MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER
COLUMN INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...RESULTING IN
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH SUNSET. SHORT FUSE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT WHERE NORTHERN TRAJECTORIES AND
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO LIKELY END GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...THOUGH FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED A HARD
FREEZE A WEEK AGO.

STILL COLDER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CERTAINTY FOR
THE SEASONAL END OF ALL UNPROTECTED PLANT GROWTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED ON FRIDAY AS WEAKER WINDS
AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OFFSET DRY CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT THOUGH
WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARMING HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MEAN TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED
EARLIER FORECAST THINKING THAT SLOWED THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRY AFTERNOON RH INTO THE LOWER 20S
WHILE SURFACE WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH...ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT ON
SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS KICKED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.

OVERALL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS CONVERGING ON A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH...THOUGH AM LEFT WONDERING HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TIME
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTS
SHOULD RELAX BY 02Z. INCLUDED SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED DECK AT 7K FEET WILL MOVE OUT BY 02Z.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY LESS THAN 10KTS AND CLEAR SKIES.

GRIFFIN

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DIPPED TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT. WINDS AND FUELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
CONDUCIVE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGINNING
TO CLIMB.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN THEY WERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS
REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010/

FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT EVENTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH GIVEN
MODEL RUN TO RUN AND 12Z MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER
COLUMN INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...RESULTING IN
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH SUNSET. SHORT FUSE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT WHERE NORTHERN TRAJECTORIES AND
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO LIKELY END GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...THOUGH FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED A HARD
FREEZE A WEEK AGO.

STILL COLDER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CERTAINTY FOR
THE SEASONAL END OF ALL UNPROTECTED PLANT GROWTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED ON FRIDAY AS WEAKER WINDS
AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OFFSET DRY CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT THOUGH
WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARMING HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MEAN TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED
EARLIER FORECAST THINKING THAT SLOWED THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRY AFTERNOON RH INTO THE LOWER 20S
WHILE SURFACE WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH...ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT ON
SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS KICKED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.

OVERALL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS CONVERGING ON A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH...THOUGH AM LEFT WONDERING HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

RUNNELS

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-082-
088-093>097-101>105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 042049
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT EVENTS. CONFIDENCE HIGH GIVEN
MODEL RUN TO RUN AND 12Z MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY CONTINUES TO DRAW COOLER AND DRIER
COLUMN INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS DROPPED
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S...RESULTING IN
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20 TO 30 MPH SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES THROUGH SUNSET. SHORT FUSE RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT WHERE NORTHERN TRAJECTORIES AND
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO LIKELY END GROWING SEASON OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
AND RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...THOUGH FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY WITNESSED A HARD
FREEZE A WEEK AGO.

STILL COLDER READINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH APPROACHES WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CERTAINTY FOR
THE SEASONAL END OF ALL UNPROTECTED PLANT GROWTH.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED ON FRIDAY AS WEAKER WINDS
AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES OFFSET DRY CONDITIONS. THIS THREAT THOUGH
WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WARMING HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SURFACE GRADIENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MEAN TROUGH. HAVE FOLLOWED
EARLIER FORECAST THINKING THAT SLOWED THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRY AFTERNOON RH INTO THE LOWER 20S
WHILE SURFACE WINDS GUST TO 30 MPH...ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT ON
SUNDAY.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS KICKED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.

OVERALL GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION IS CONVERGING ON A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH THE MEAN TROUGH...THOUGH AM LEFT WONDERING HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT THAT IS NOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

SCHAUMANN

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DIPPED TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT. WINDS AND FUELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
CONDUCIVE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRES. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGINNING
TO CLIMB.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT
OVER MANY AREAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
THAN THEY WERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK TO BRING BACK MOISTURE IN THIS
REGIME...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-082-
088-093>097-101>105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 041718
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 PM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MIX TO DOWN TO CREATE GUST TO
AROUND 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THESE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 5 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO
WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT. EVEN WITH SOME WIND TONIGHT...FEEL
THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZE MARK TONIGHT. FEEL THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT YET EXPERIENCED A KILLING FROST OR FREEZE...WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZE MARK FOR FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SINCE THESE AREAS WILL BE BORDER LINE ON REACHING FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FREEZE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DO
NOT EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE TONIGHT THEY SHOULD FRIDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISES TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S OUT WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE GONE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED IN BY STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK AND FEEL
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.
THEREFORE I HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WARM...DRY AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO NOT FEEL THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA. IT MAY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME FOR MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
DEGREE OR COOLER ON MONDAY.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH
A FEW DAYS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE MOISTURE
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE QUESTION IS WITH THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN
ANY MODEL DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCY. FEEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE MEDIUM MODELS GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM MID EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

SCHAUMANN

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT 2OFT WINDS TO BE ABOVE 15 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 20FT WINDS OVER 20 MPH ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN THE THOSE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 27 TO 34 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 20FT WINDS WILL BE
RIGHT AT RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT RH APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OR THAT MID 20 DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DO NOT
ADVECT DOWN HERE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME WILL HIT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND FEEL THE MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN
RETURNING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HAVE UNDER CUT
MODEL DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY NOT
HAVE CUT THEM ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME FEEL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-
097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 041157
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MIX TO DOWN TO CREATE GUST TO
AROUND 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THESE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 5 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO
WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT. EVEN WITH SOME WIND TONIGHT...FEEL
THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZE MARK TONIGHT. FEEL THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT YET EXPERIENCED A KILLING FROST OR FREEZE...WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZE MARK FOR FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SINCE THESE AREAS WILL BE BORDER LINE ON REACHING FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FREEZE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DO
NOT EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE TONIGHT THEY SHOULD FRIDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISES TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S OUT WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE GONE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED IN BY STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK AND FEEL
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.
THEREFORE I HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WARM...DRY AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO NOT FEEL THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA. IT MAY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME FOR MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
DEGREE OR COOLER ON MONDAY.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH
A FEW DAYS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE MOISTURE
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE QUESTION IS WITH THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN
ANY MODEL DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCY. FEEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE MEDIUM MODELS GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010/

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS TODAY
WITH FREQENT SURFACE GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

FOSTER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT 2OFT WINDS TO BE ABOVE 15 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 20FT WINDS OVER 20 MPH ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN THE THOSE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 27 TO 34 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 20FT WINDS WILL BE
RIGHT AT RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT RH APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OR THAT MID 20 DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DO NOT
ADVECT DOWN HERE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME WILL HIT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND FEEL THE MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN
RETURNING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HAVE UNDER CUT
MODEL DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY NOT
HAVE CUT THEM ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME FEEL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-
097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 040845
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A NICE WARM UP SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING....AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD TIGHTENED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A
RESULT OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE TODAY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. A WINDY DAY IS IN STORE FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST WINDS COULD MIX TO DOWN TO CREATE GUST TO
AROUND 35 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THINK WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THESE WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE COLD AIRMASS SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 5 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO
WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM TONIGHT. EVEN WITH SOME WIND TONIGHT...FEEL
THE AIRMASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES TO AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZE MARK TONIGHT. FEEL THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT YET EXPERIENCED A KILLING FROST OR FREEZE...WILL BE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZE MARK FOR FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
SINCE THESE AREAS WILL BE BORDER LINE ON REACHING FREEZE WARNING
CRITERIA WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FREEZE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IF AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DO
NOT EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE TONIGHT THEY SHOULD FRIDAY NIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE AREA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A NICE WARM UP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISES TO SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S OUT WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE GONE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED IN BY STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK AND FEEL
MODELS ARE BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TOO FAST.
THEREFORE I HAVE DROPPED DEWPOINTS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WARM...DRY AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY FIRE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THEN OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
DO NOT FEEL THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE AREA. IT MAY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOME FOR MONDAY...SO TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
DEGREE OR COOLER ON MONDAY.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH
A FEW DAYS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO THE MOISTURE
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE QUESTION IS WITH THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DIFFER RUN TO RUN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF FAITH IN
ANY MODEL DUE TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED INCONSISTENCY. FEEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE MEDIUM MODELS GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

FOR THE 04/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND PROGS SUPPORT A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ABOVE A
WEAK NIGHTTIME INVERSION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04/14Z AS
THE INVERSION MIXES OUT. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT 2OFT WINDS TO BE ABOVE 15 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH 20FT WINDS OVER 20 MPH ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN THE THOSE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AREAS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 27 TO 34 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. 20FT WINDS WILL BE
RIGHT AT RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT RH APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO MAKE SURE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT A FEW DEGREES
WARMER OR THAT MID 20 DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DO NOT
ADVECT DOWN HERE QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME WILL HIT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW CRITERIA.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND FEEL THE MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN
RETURNING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. HAVE UNDER CUT
MODEL DEWPOINTS QUITE A BIT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY NOT
HAVE CUT THEM ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME FEEL AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE MET.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 040452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN THE CHANCES FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE GULF STATES. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OZARKS
AS WELL BRINGING A SUNNY SKY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND...WEAKER...TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
-4 DEGREES C...EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS TO BE SUB FREEZING WITH
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND FREEZING AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FRO A
KILLING FROST OR FREEZE FRO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD YET...IS FAIRLY GOOD AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL THE OZARKS CAN EXPECT RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT THE
REGION CAN REALIZE WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
RESPECTIVELY... HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT WE WILL SEE A LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE CLOSED LOW WOULD BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1151 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

FOR THE 04/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND PROGS SUPPORT A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ABOVE A
WEAK NIGHTTIME INVERSION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04/14Z AS
THE INVERSION MIXES OUT. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 032348
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN THE CHANCES FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE GULF STATES. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OZARKS
AS WELL BRINGING A SUNNY SKY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND...WEAKER...TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
-4 DEGREES C...EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS TO BE SUB FREEZING WITH
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND FREEZING AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FRO A
KILLING FROST OR FREEZE FRO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD YET...IS FAIRLY GOOD AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL THE OZARKS CAN EXPECT RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT THE
REGION CAN REALIZE WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
RESPECTIVELY... HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT WE WILL SEE A LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE CLOSED LOW WOULD BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

FOR THE 04/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND PROGS SUPPORT A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KTS ABOVE A WEAK
NIGHTTIME INVERSION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 04/14Z AS THE
INVERSION MIXES OUT. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 032007
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST REMAIN THE CHANCES FOR COLD
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE GULF STATES. THE MOISTURE THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OZARKS
AS WELL BRINGING A SUNNY SKY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
60S THIS AFTERNOON.

A SECOND...WEAKER...TROUGH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING ADDITIONAL COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. THIS COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
-4 DEGREES C...EXPECT FRIDAY MORNING LOWS TO BE SUB FREEZING WITH
SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AROUND FREEZING AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FRO A
KILLING FROST OR FREEZE FRO AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH
HAS NOT HAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD YET...IS FAIRLY GOOD AT THIS
POINT. OVERALL THE OZARKS CAN EXPECT RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN OF WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN THAT THE
REGION CAN REALIZE WILL IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE GFS OR ECMWF
RESPECTIVELY... HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT WE WILL SEE A LINE OF STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT...THE CLOSED LOW WOULD BE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND BRING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 031750
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
NICE WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE NOTHING
MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT SPREADING INTO THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ON THURSDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A KILLING FREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS A RESULT A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THAT NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 031534
FTMSGF

MESSAGE DATE: NOV 03 2010 15:34:00

THE RADAR MAITENANCE HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND IS NOW BACK IN
SERVICE.

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 031447
FTMSGF

MESSAGE DATE: NOV 03 2010 14:47:00

THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH NOON AS MAITENANCE ON COMMUNICATION
LINES IS COMPLETED.

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 031145
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
NICE WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE NOTHING
MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT SPREADING INTO THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ON THURSDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A KILLING FREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS A RESULT A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THAT NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST SLIDES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 030748
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
NICE WARM UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THEREFORE NOTHING
MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH TODAY AND BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE COLDER AIR WILL LAG A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...NOT SPREADING INTO THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S ON THURSDAY.

FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP WINDS UP ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE A BETTER
SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST AND A KILLING FREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AS LOWS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AS A RESULT A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTEND FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED RIDE OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS
TROUGH MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THAT NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 030435
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
THE EFFECTS THEY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. THEN LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE QUITE A FEW BREAKS OUT THERE.
THINK THIS MAY LAST INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE EXPECT THE CLOUDS FOLLOW SUIT
AND FILL BACK NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT IS
A TOUGH CALL...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. DO THINK THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HIT CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES. FOG IS A TOUGHER CALL AS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. HAVE HELD OFF INSERTING INTO
FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM DEW
POINT/WIND TRENDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
IMPACT AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RATHER CHILLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE NOT CLEAR CUT...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES INTO THAT AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO POST AT THIS TIME AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS INDICATE A HIGHER ZONAL INDEX ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NORTH. THIS MEANS A BIG
WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THEN BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA STARTING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 022251
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
THE EFFECTS THEY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. THEN LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE QUITE A FEW BREAKS OUT THERE.
THINK THIS MAY LAST INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE EXPECT THE CLOUDS FOLLOW SUIT
AND FILL BACK NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT IS
A TOUGH CALL...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. DO THINK THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HIT CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES. FOG IS A TOUGHER CALL AS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. HAVE HELD OFF INSERTING INTO
FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM DEW
POINT/WIND TRENDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
IMPACT AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RATHER CHILLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE NOT CLEAR CUT...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES INTO THAT AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO POST AT THIS TIME AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS INDICATE A HIGHER ZONAL INDEX ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NORTH. THIS MEANS A BIG
WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THEN BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA STARTING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE TERMINALS
REMAIN ON THE FAR NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE SUSTAINED IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW GUSTS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 022012
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL INITIALLY BE CLOUDS TONIGHT...AND
THE EFFECTS THEY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WORRY
ABOUT THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO EXPERIENCE A
KILLING FROST/FREEZE THIS FALL SEASON. THEN LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN
CHANGE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE QUITE A FEW BREAKS OUT THERE.
THINK THIS MAY LAST INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE EXPECT THE CLOUDS FOLLOW SUIT
AND FILL BACK NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT IS
A TOUGH CALL...AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. DO THINK THERE IS SOME FROST
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
HIT CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES. FOG IS A TOUGHER CALL AS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG. HAVE HELD OFF INSERTING INTO
FORECAST FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM DEW
POINT/WIND TRENDS.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...PUSHING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE
IMPACT AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK RATHER CHILLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE NOT CLEAR CUT...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN KANSAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS THE
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY SETTLES INTO THAT AREA. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO POST AT THIS TIME AS
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN UP FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LONG WAVE CHARTS INDICATE A HIGHER ZONAL INDEX ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 WITH THE POLAR JET SHIFTING NORTH. THIS MEANS A BIG
WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED...SO EVEN CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THEN BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE AREA STARTING
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TRACKS AWAY AND TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME MOISTENING
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS NOT BEEN ANTICIPATED WELL BY THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTIONING OF FOG FOR BOTH THE
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AERODROMES. WILL MONITOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO SEE IF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH CAN TAKE CONTROL. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR FOG WOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 021705
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATTENTION
TURNS TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT TO
THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
TO THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL OCCUR. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE FELT
TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
CONDITIONS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A GOOD RATIONAL COOLING
SETUP SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
NICE WARM UP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE
CEILINGS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH TRACKS AWAY AND TO
THE EAST. RAINFALL THAT FELL OVERNIGHT HAS CAUSED SOME MOISTENING
TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS NOT BEEN ANTICIPATED WELL BY THE
MODELS. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTIONING OF FOG FOR BOTH THE
JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AERODROMES. WILL MONITOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS
TO SEE IF DRY ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH CAN TAKE CONTROL. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...THE CHANCES FOR FOG WOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 021519
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-078>083-088>096-101>105-021800-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-CEDAR-
POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...
HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
1019 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH
NOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IF YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A
CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
HATCH

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 021519
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-078>083-088>096-101>105-021800-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-CEDAR-
POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...
HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
1019 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH
NOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IF YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A
CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
HATCH

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 021450
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
950 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-088>098-101>106-021600-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
950 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH
NOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IF YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A
CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
HATCH

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 021450
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
950 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-088>098-101>106-021600-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
950 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH
NOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
IF YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A
CLOUDY SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
HATCH

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 021200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATTENTION
TURNS TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT TO
THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
TO THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL OCCUR. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE FELT
TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
CONDITIONS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A GOOD RATIONAL COOLING
SETUP SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
NICE WARM UP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010/

THE RAIN THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT
HAD MOSTLY ENDED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKED TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LINGERING MVFR
TO VFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY WEST OF SPRINGFIELD INCLUDING THE JOPLIN
TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE AT ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND DRIER ADVECTS INTO THE AREA ON
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 021149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
649 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. IF
YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. A
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 021149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
649 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
649 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. IF
YOU ARE HEADED OUT TO VOTE THIS MORNING...YOU CAN EXPECT A CLOUDY
SKY AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. A
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 020840
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-101>105-021100-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
340 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH 6 AM. THE RAIN
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO ROLLA AND FORT
LEONARD WOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO
ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 020840
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-089>092-094>098-101>105-021100-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
340 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH 6 AM. THE RAIN
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO ROLLA AND FORT
LEONARD WOOD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO
ONE HALF OF AN INCH.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 020815
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE NOV 2 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL DEAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
EARLY THIS MORNING AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATTENTION
TURNS TO EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. A NICE WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS
MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS A DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT TO
THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER SUNRISE WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
TO THE WEST.

MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL OCCUR. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TODAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL MAINLY BE FELT
TONIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 30S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER
CONDITIONS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A GOOD RATIONAL COOLING
SETUP SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A DRY AIRMASS...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS A RESULT CHILLY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE 20S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
NICE WARM UP AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT THE ONSET OF THE 06Z TAFS AT SGF/BBG WITH VCNTY
WORDING AT JLN. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
AS WELL WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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