Sunday, October 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010451
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1151 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATE MON-TUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

IT HAS BEEN A NICE HALLOWEEN SO FAR...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT
GOOD WEATHER WON'T CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ACTUALLY...A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP NORTH OF A STALLED SFC FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM OK INTO AR...WITH READINGS ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST AR. SOME
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO BUT LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

A SHORTWAVE OVER WA/OR/ID WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON
NIGHT THEN INTO EAST TX BY TUE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES VERY MERIDIONAL BY THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS BY THU EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 6 DEGREES TO THE MO/AR LINE ON FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD CORRESPOND TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
40S. SHADED A LITTLE WARMER WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING AT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK. A DECENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF MOVING THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH SFC FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS FOR KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME IS CREATING ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10 KNOTS AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
START TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING IN DURING THE MORNING AND LOWER
CEILINGS BKN050 AFTER 18Z.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312322
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATE MON-TUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

IT HAS BEEN A NICE HALLOWEEN SO FAR...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT
GOOD WEATHER WON'T CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ACTUALLY...A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP NORTH OF A STALLED SFC FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM OK INTO AR...WITH READINGS ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST AR. SOME
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO BUT LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

A SHORTWAVE OVER WA/OR/ID WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON
NIGHT THEN INTO EAST TX BY TUE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES VERY MERIDIONAL BY THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS BY THU EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 6 DEGREES TO THE MO/AR LINE ON FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD CORRESPOND TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
40S. SHADED A LITTLE WARMER WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING AT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK. A DECENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF MOVING THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH SFC FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION HAD SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WILL
NOT AFFECT THE TERMINALS.

SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE
THE SUN SETS BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH
OVERNIGHT TO KEEP SUSTAINED WIND AT AROUND 10 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311958
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
258 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 250 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES LATE MON-TUE...THEN
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO
SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

IT HAS BEEN A NICE HALLOWEEN SO FAR...AND SEE NO REASON WHY THAT
GOOD WEATHER WON'T CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ACTUALLY...A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP NORTH OF A STALLED SFC FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM OK INTO AR...WITH READINGS ONLY NEAR 60 DEGREES
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 80 DEGREES OVER NORTHWEST AR. SOME
CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER EASTERN KS/WESTERN
MO BUT LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY.

A SHORTWAVE OVER WA/OR/ID WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON
NIGHT THEN INTO EAST TX BY TUE NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AT LEAST
SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWFA.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES VERY MERIDIONAL BY THE MID-LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS BY THU EVENING. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 6 DEGREES TO THE MO/AR LINE ON FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD CORRESPOND TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY MAKING IT INTO THE
40S. SHADED A LITTLE WARMER WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING AT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE
WEEK. A DECENT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS OF MOVING THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH SFC FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR SATELLITE JUST SHOWING SOME HIGH CIRRUS UP NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40 TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR
WINDS WILL CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY. A DECENT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE LOW 60S TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DOWN
TO THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT ON CUTTING THIS SYSTEM OFF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND COLDER THAN
THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE THE SAME IDEA. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUE ARE
QUITE LOW BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL SET UP OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING A VERY COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10KTS OR LESS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR SATELLITE JUST SHOWING SOME HIGH CIRRUS UP NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40 TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR
WINDS WILL CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY. A DECENT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE LOW 60S TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DOWN
TO THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT ON CUTTING THIS SYSTEM OFF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND COLDER THAN
THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE THE SAME IDEA. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUE ARE
QUITE LOW BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL SET UP OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING A VERY COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 657 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310728
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
LATEST IR SATELLITE JUST SHOWING SOME HIGH CIRRUS UP NORTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40 TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR
WINDS WILL CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY. A DECENT
TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE LOW 60S TO THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER.

AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL RIDE OUT OF THE ROCKIES DOWN
TO THE GULF COAST REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT ON CUTTING THIS SYSTEM OFF ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME HIGH
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UP INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT
I THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL STAY FAR TO OUR SOUTH IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER AND COLDER THAN
THE GFS BUT BOTH HAVE THE SAME IDEA. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUE ARE
QUITE LOW BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS.
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL SET UP OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND BRING A VERY COOL AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN INTO WI OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SURFACE WIND CHANGING TO EASTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310428
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THEN
LATER...TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE MON-TUE.

SFC PRESSURE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SFC RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 20-25
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS 0F 2 PM...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...CURING GRASSES...AND FALLING LEAVES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK
SFC TROUGH.

PROGS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE
ANOTHER OFF THE U.S. PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY
LATE SUNDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON NIGHT. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VLY MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADDED SOME SMALL POPS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP
WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN AMOUNTS..IF WE GET ANYTHING AT
ALL.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF-GEM-GFS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL SET UP CAMP...BUT
IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
TO US. WENT CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
SAT) AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND A SOUTH SFC
WIND/RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN INTO WI OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SURFACE WIND CHANGING TO EASTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302243
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THEN
LATER...TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE MON-TUE.

SFC PRESSURE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SFC RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 20-25
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS 0F 2 PM...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...CURING GRASSES...AND FALLING LEAVES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK
SFC TROUGH.

PROGS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE
ANOTHER OFF THE U.S. PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY
LATE SUNDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON NIGHT. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VLY MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADDED SOME SMALL POPS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP
WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN AMOUNTS..IF WE GET ANYTHING AT
ALL.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF-GEM-GFS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL SET UP CAMP...BUT
IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
TO US. WENT CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
SAT) AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND A SOUTH SFC
WIND/RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
OZARKS REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME EAST ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302003
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN. THEN
LATER...TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE MON-TUE.

SFC PRESSURE TRENDS SHOW A GRADUALLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL MO AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SFC RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 20-25
PERCENT IN MOST AREAS AS 0F 2 PM...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER...CURING GRASSES...AND FALLING LEAVES...FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY...WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW LOCAL RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS OCCURRING EARLIER
IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACHING WEAK
SFC TROUGH.

PROGS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE
ANOTHER OFF THE U.S. PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY
LATE SUNDAY...THEN DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY MON NIGHT. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VLY MON AND TUE...AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LIMITED
MOISTURE NORTHWARD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ADDED SOME SMALL POPS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY
TUE...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN MO. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP
WILL FIGHT A CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVEL FETCH FROM STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...SO NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN AMOUNTS..IF WE GET ANYTHING AT
ALL.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF-GEM-GFS AS TO WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL SET UP CAMP...BUT
IN GENERAL OUR REGION WILL BE IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE
ONLY QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
TO US. WENT CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
SAT) AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AND A SOUTH SFC
WIND/RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE THE RULE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301800
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A QUITE MORNING WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND MILDER
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ALSO
SEEING SOME HIGH CIRRUS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION ON THE GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THIS WEEKEND AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DIVING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES DOWN NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY DOWN IN THE WESTERN GULF REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE THE RULE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT BROUGHT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND WIND SHEAR
TO THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT WITH WINDS GOING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301200
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A QUITE MORNING WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND MILDER
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ALSO
SEEING SOME HIGH CIRRUS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION ON THE GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THIS WEEKEND AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DIVING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES DOWN NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY DOWN IN THE WESTERN GULF REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 639 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300740
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

A QUITE MORNING WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION AND LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND MILDER
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. ALSO
SEEING SOME HIGH CIRRUS ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR IS STILL IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY VEGETATION ON THE GROUND WILL INCREASE
THE FIRE DANGER BUT APPEARS TO BE BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THIS WEEKEND AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MOST LOCATIONS CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND COOLER TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DIVING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES DOWN NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. WILL JUST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THIS TIME NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STAY DOWN IN THE WESTERN GULF REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN. LOOK FOR A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE
EAST...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
WINDS INCREASING OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR OF 35 TO 45
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JLN AND SGF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Friday, October 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300446
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE NO
REALLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION.

A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL INDEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL STILL
FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK AS THIS AXIS WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE MAY DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER
SUNSET AND STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COMMENCES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO MET NUMBERS.

WILL THEN START TO SEE A FRONTOGENETIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. JUST NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CARRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLOSING IT OFF NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THINK THE MAIN PV ANOMALY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK UP FROM THE
GULF AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. KEPT POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QUESTION MARKS INVOLVING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO THE
EAST...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
WINDS INCREASING OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR OF 35 TO 45
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JLN AND SGF OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS SEEM TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS THIS WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF
THE GULF. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292248
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE NO
REALLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION.

A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL INDEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL STILL
FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK AS THIS AXIS WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE MAY DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER
SUNSET AND STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COMMENCES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO MET NUMBERS.

WILL THEN START TO SEE A FRONTOGENETIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. JUST NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CARRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLOSING IT OFF NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THINK THE MAIN PV ANOMALY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK UP FROM THE
GULF AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. KEPT POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QUESTION MARKS INVOLVING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. FOR THE
00Z TAFS...SHOULD SEE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS WHICH
WOULD AFFECT THE JLN/SGF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS SEEM TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS THIS WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF
THE GULF. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292023
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. PLEASE SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE NO
REALLY STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION.

A FAIRLY HIGH ZONAL INDEX WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT BROUGHT THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL STILL
FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK AS THIS AXIS WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE MAY DROP LIKE A ROCK AFTER
SUNSET AND STEADY OFF LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COMMENCES. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
GENERALLY CLOSE TO MET NUMBERS.

WILL THEN START TO SEE A FRONTOGENETIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND AS A SHEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. JUST NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CARRY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT IT MAY INCREASE TEMPERATURE SPREADS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

LONG WAVE CHARTS THEN CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE CLOSING IT OFF NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THINK THE MAIN PV ANOMALY WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR MOISTURE EVENTUALLY WORKING BACK UP FROM THE
GULF AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW. KEPT POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QUESTION MARKS INVOLVING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/

FOR THE 29/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO EAST TX WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 30/1500Z ONCE DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MODELS SEEM TOO
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING BACK HIGHER DEW POINTS THIS WEEKEND AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF
THE GULF. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291751
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE AREA THE COLDEST
AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY IN
EFFECT AREA WIDE TILL MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 60S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND RETURNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MID 30S AND MILDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 70. WITH A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
LIKE WEATHER. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP BRING
DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF THE U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEPER TROUGH AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD BE A COOLER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/

FOR THE 29/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO EAST TX WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL
TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 30/1500Z ONCE DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291126
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE AREA THE COLDEST
AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY IN
EFFECT AREA WIDE TILL MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 60S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND RETURNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MID 30S AND MILDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 70. WITH A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
LIKE WEATHER. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP BRING
DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF THE U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEPER TROUGH AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD BE A COOLER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 619 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
RETURN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

A COLD AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY OVER THE
MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE AREA THE COLDEST
AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON. HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL STAY IN
EFFECT AREA WIDE TILL MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 60S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND RETURNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AND
A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH TEMPS
BACK INTO THE MID 30S AND MILDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S. THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 70. WITH A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE
LIKE WEATHER. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP BRING
DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN
SETTING UP MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN WEST REGION OF THE U.S. AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A DEEPER TROUGH AND A LITTLE FURTHER
WESTWARD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH WOULD BE A COOLER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW PATTERN.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WAS NUDGING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SOUTH WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT JLN AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290439
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WHILE SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY. PARCELS RIDING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
ADVECTED MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE OZARKS. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE FIRST
KILLING FREEZE OF THE 2010-2011 COLD SEASON. IT WILL BE PERFECT
TIMING FOR THE CANADIAN HIGH TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM TO MAXIMIZE A DIURNAL CURVE.

THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS...A COMBINATION KNOWN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN RESPONSE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL
SUNSHINE KICK IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
BACK INTO THE 60S. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FANTASTIC WEATHER WEEKEND...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OZARKS REGION BECOMES POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG BELT OF NORTHERLIES...ALLOWING AN UPPER MIDWEST
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CHILLY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO NONE.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WAS NUDGING EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO A
SOUTH WIND. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MAY SEE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT JLN AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282250
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
550 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WHILE SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY. PARCELS RIDING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
ADVECTED MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE OZARKS. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE FIRST
KILLING FREEZE OF THE 2010-2011 COLD SEASON. IT WILL BE PERFECT
TIMING FOR THE CANADIAN HIGH TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM TO MAXIMIZE A DIURNAL CURVE.

THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS...A COMBINATION KNOWN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN RESPONSE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL
SUNSHINE KICK IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
BACK INTO THE 60S. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FANTASTIC WEATHER WEEKEND...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OZARKS REGION BECOMES POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG BELT OF NORTHERLIES...ALLOWING AN UPPER MIDWEST
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CHILLY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO NONE.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ANY REMAINING GUSTS TO SETTLE DOWN TO NEAR CALM BY SUNSET WITH
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 282241
FTMSGF
Message Date: Oct 28 2010 22:41:33

KSGF radar is operational - It will be down again tomorrow from 1500 GMT to 2300
GMT to complete painting

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281903
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..FREEZE WARNING POSTED FOR TONIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE REGION WHILE SKIES
REMAINED SUNNY. PARCELS RIDING ALONG A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
ADVECTED MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE OZARKS. THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...LEADING TO THE FIRST
KILLING FREEZE OF THE 2010-2011 COLD SEASON. IT WILL BE PERFECT
TIMING FOR THE CANADIAN HIGH TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM TO MAXIMIZE A DIURNAL CURVE.

THIS FEATURE WILL FACILITATE CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS...A COMBINATION KNOWN TO ENHANCE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN RESPONSE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT. THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE HANDLING
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WELL...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED
FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL
SUNSHINE KICK IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
BACK INTO THE 60S. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
FANTASTIC WEATHER WEEKEND...WITH EVEN SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OZARKS REGION BECOMES POSITIONED
UNDERNEATH A STRONG BELT OF NORTHERLIES...ALLOWING AN UPPER MIDWEST
AIRMASS TO SPREAD DEEP INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME CHILLY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO NONE.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/

FOR THE 28/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION TONIGHT THEN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA ON FRI. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281735
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO HIGH SHORT RANGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE STRONG H8 NORTHWEST FLOW H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY ON
THE RISE TODAY INDICATING HOW SHORT LIVED THE COOL DOWN WILL BE.
H925-850 STREAMLINES OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE AIR MASS SOURCE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TODAY.

HUMIDITIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND MIXING
WILL REDUCE THIS STILL FURTHER. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HOWEVER REDUCE THE THREAT OF RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE.

HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLE INTO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE WILL DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BASED
OFF OBSERVED UPSTREAM DEW POINTS...COLDEST READINGS IN THE UPPER
20S WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR OVER
THREE HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO RETURN FLOW THAT BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD
SUNRISE...THOUGH VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF
THE WARNING REGION WIDE.

EXPECT A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AND STILL WARMER ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO REGION.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

00Z WRF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE
GENERAL FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIOD. A WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE. ECM MUCH DEEPER WITH UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WITHOUT MOISTURE IMPACT
ON OBSERVED WEATHER TO BE MINIMAL RESULTING IN DRY...SEASONABLY
MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010/

FOR THE 28/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS REGION TONIGHT THEN SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA ON FRI. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281058
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO HIGH SHORT RANGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE STRONG H8 NORTHWEST FLOW H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY ON
THE RISE TODAY INDICATING HOW SHORT LIVED THE COOL DOWN WILL BE.
H925-850 STREAMLINES OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE AIR MASS SOURCE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TODAY.

HUMIDITIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND MIXING
WILL REDUCE THIS STILL FURTHER. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HOWEVER REDUCE THE THREAT OF RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE.

HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLE INTO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE WILL DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BASED
OFF OBSERVED UPSTREAM DEW POINTS...COLDEST READINGS IN THE UPPER
20S WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR OVER
THREE HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO RETURN FLOW THAT BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD
SUNRISE...THOUGH VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF
THE WARNING REGION WIDE.

EXPECT A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AND STILL WARMER ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO REGION.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

00Z WRF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE
GENERAL FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIOD. A WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE. ECM MUCH DEEPER WITH UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WITHOUT MOISTURE IMPACT
ON OBSERVED WEATHER TO BE MINIMAL RESULTING IN DRY...SEASONABLY
MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED SOME NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 12Z TO
14Z. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

GRIFFIN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280819
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

..FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR TONIGHT...

DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO HIGH SHORT RANGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. DESPITE STRONG H8 NORTHWEST FLOW H8 TEMPS ACTUALLY ON
THE RISE TODAY INDICATING HOW SHORT LIVED THE COOL DOWN WILL BE.
H925-850 STREAMLINES OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE AIR MASS SOURCE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TODAY.

HUMIDITIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 20S AND MIXING
WILL REDUCE THIS STILL FURTHER. WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HOWEVER REDUCE THE THREAT OF RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE.

HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLE INTO THE REGION. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE WILL DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BASED
OFF OBSERVED UPSTREAM DEW POINTS...COLDEST READINGS IN THE UPPER
20S WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR OVER
THREE HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DUE TO RETURN FLOW THAT BEGINS TO SET UP TOWARD
SUNRISE...THOUGH VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF
THE WARNING REGION WIDE.

EXPECT A WARMER DAY ON FRIDAY AND STILL WARMER ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO REGION.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

00Z WRF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE
GENERAL FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIOD. A WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE. ECM MUCH DEEPER WITH UPPER AND
SURFACE PATTERN WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER WITHOUT MOISTURE IMPACT
ON OBSERVED WEATHER TO BE MINIMAL RESULTING IN DRY...SEASONABLY
MILD WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SKY HAS CLEARED THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPERIENCE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT THE 3 TAF LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280439
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MITIGATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS
MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY
WEST WINDS GUSTED TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WELL INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW...THAT WILL ROLL INTO
THE OZARKS ON A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL CREATE
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...AND WARMING ONLY INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IS NOW FORECASTED TO HOVER DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM CREATING PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER HOW DRY THIS REPLACEMENT AIRMASS IS.
DEWPOINTS OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGREES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER...TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUING TILL AROUND 9AM.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS FANTASTIC CONDITIONS
EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUNNY SKIES...SOUTH WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
WITH A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE...RAIN COULD BE DIFFICULT TO COME
BY.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SKY HAS CLEARED THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPERIENCE SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT THE 3 TAF LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WE PLAN TO ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 272257
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 PM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER MITIGATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AS
MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. BREEZY
WEST WINDS GUSTED TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...AS AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS WELL INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW...THAT WILL ROLL INTO
THE OZARKS ON A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL CREATE
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...AND WARMING ONLY INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IS NOW FORECASTED TO HOVER DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM CREATING PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER HOW DRY THIS REPLACEMENT AIRMASS IS.
DEWPOINTS OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGREES TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER...TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE REGION STARTING MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...AND
CONTINUING TILL AROUND 9AM.

THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS FANTASTIC CONDITIONS
EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUNNY SKIES...SOUTH WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS OF A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
WITH A MOISTURE STARVED ATMOSPHERE...RAIN COULD BE DIFFICULT TO COME
BY.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH A TURN OF THE SURFACE WIND FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT EAST WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG
30-45 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER TODAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WE PLAN TO ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-091-092-096-097-105.

KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271109
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE TRENDS INDICATING SOME FILLING AND
WEAKENING OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS AROUND THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OUR WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS TODAY.
WITH LITTLE RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPECIFICS ARE INCLUDED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE AS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. INCLUDED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO A LEVEL LOW
JET EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

GRIFFIN

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HAVE DRIED OUT VEGETATION
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST RAWS LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOWING FUEL STICK MOISTURE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE PLATEAU. WILL HOLD
OFF ON EXTENDING THE WARNING AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THERE.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-091-092-096-097-105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270822
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010

DISCUSSION...

DEEP CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH PRESSURE TRENDS INDICATING SOME FILLING AND
WEAKENING OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS AROUND THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED OUR WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS TODAY.
WITH LITTLE RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT HITTING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE NORTH
AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPECIFICS ARE INCLUDED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE AS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A STRING OF LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS ACROSS THE
OZARKS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

HATCH

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY HAVE DRIED OUT VEGETATION
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MOST RAWS LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOWING FUEL STICK MOISTURE AROUND 10 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 25 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU WITH WINDS APPROACHING 15 KNOTS OVER
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE PLATEAU. WILL HOLD
OFF ON EXTENDING THE WARNING AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR NOW AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THERE.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-091-092-096-097-105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270425
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S...WHILE WESTERLY BREEZES PERSISTED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS WHERE TALL
GRASS HAS PARTIALLY CURED.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ACCELERATE...AND RANGE WITHIN 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL STICK MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE FORESTED AREAS ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST FOR ANY RAPID
SPREAD OF WILD FIRES...HOWEVER...PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL ALL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT COOL DOWN WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO ONLY WARM INTO THE
50S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE YEAR...AS READINGS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DEEP WITHIN THE RUGGED OZARK TERRAIN COULD
EXPERIENCE UPPER 20S. THIS COLD AIR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER
THE OZARKS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP RIGHT BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE HINTED
TOWARD A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN PLACE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER IN A STRING OF LOW
LEVEL JETS WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ONCE AGAIN ALL
TERMINALS ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MOZ056>058-069>071-081-082-092-096-097-105.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 262347
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S...WHILE WESTERLY BREEZES PERSISTED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS WHERE TALL
GRASS HAS PARTIALLY CURED.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ACCELERATE...AND RANGE WITHIN 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL STICK MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE FORESTED AREAS ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST FOR ANY RAPID
SPREAD OF WILD FIRES...HOWEVER...PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL ALL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT COOL DOWN WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO ONLY WARM INTO THE
50S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE YEAR...AS READINGS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DEEP WITHIN THE RUGGED OZARK TERRAIN COULD
EXPERIENCE UPPER 20S. THIS COLD AIR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER
THE OZARKS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP RIGHT BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE HINTED
TOWARD A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN PLACE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 40 TO
50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL IMPINGE ON THE AERODROMES IN THE OZARKS
THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH
AROUND 15Z.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 261838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
140 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

DISCUSSION...
MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S...WHILE WESTERLY BREEZES PERSISTED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CREATED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS WHERE TALL
GRASS HAS PARTIALLY CURED.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN
ACCELERATE...AND RANGE WITHIN 15 TO 25 MPH. FUEL STICK MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE FORESTED AREAS ARE LIKELY TOO MOIST FOR ANY RAPID
SPREAD OF WILD FIRES...HOWEVER...PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL ALL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FIRE WEATHER WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A DECENT COOL DOWN WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...CAUSING AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO ONLY WARM INTO THE
50S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE YEAR...AS READINGS FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. A FEW
SHELTERED LOCATIONS DEEP WITHIN THE RUGGED OZARK TERRAIN COULD
EXPERIENCE UPPER 20S. THIS COLD AIR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER
THE OZARKS.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP RIGHT BACK INTO THE 70S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AT SOME POINT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE HINTED
TOWARD A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN PLACE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A
MINIMUM.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL THEN DEVELOP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 261811
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
FRONT/LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLEARING FROM EAST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR LAGGING
BEHIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER MISSOURI OZARKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND TO MORE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES AND ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO GIVE THE AREA THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL THEN DEVELOP
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 261118
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ097-098-106-261230-
HOWELL-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
THAYER...ALTON
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 7 AM... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIGHT ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR.

$$

GRIFFIN

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 261051
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
FRONT/LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLEARING FROM EAST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR LAGGING
BEHIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER MISSOURI OZARKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND TO MORE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES AND ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO GIVE THE AREA THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS FOR KSGF/KJLN/KBBG...INTENSIFICATION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL CREATE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL AERODROMES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT BY 15Z. GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ENOUGH AFTER SUNSET TO GET RID OF THE GUSTINESS.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260851
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ083-098-106-261000-
DENT-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALEM...WINONA...EMINENCE...THAYER...
ALTON
351 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS EAST OF AN EMINENCE TO ALTON LINE. EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AS THE STORMS PASS WITH SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL EXIT
THE AREA BY 5 AM.

$$
GAEDE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260756
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
FRONT/LINE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CLEARING FROM EAST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME. AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR LAGGING
BEHIND UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER MISSOURI OZARKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND TO MORE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES AND ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO GIVE THE AREA THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

GRIFFIN

&&

AVIATION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE KJLN TERMINAL
AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KSGF/KBBG TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-07Z.
EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE.

ONCE STORMS PASS...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

GAEDE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260752
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ058-070-071-082-083-096>098-105-106-260900-
MARIES-PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIENNA...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
252 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 4 AM. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A ROLLA TO HOUSTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE.
EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS PASS WITH SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$
GAEDE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tornado Watch - Cancellation

WWUS63 KSGF 260733
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 719
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-109-119-131-141-
145-167-185-209-213-217-225-260845-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.A.0719.000000T0000Z-101026T1100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 719 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS CANCELS 22 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MILLER MORGAN ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON POLK
STONE TANEY VERNON
WEBSTER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...AURORA...
BOLIVAR...BRANSON...BUFFALO...CAMDENTON...CARTHAGE...CASSVILLE...
COLE CAMP...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...FORSYTH...GALENA...
GREENFIELD...HERMITAGE...JOPLIN...KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...
LAMAR...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...
NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...
ROGERSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260652
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
152 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ057-058-069>071-081>083-091-092-095>098-104>106-260800-
MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...
OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...MARSHFIELD...
ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
152 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...

..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 3 AM. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF A ROLLA TO HOUSTON TO GAINESVILLE LINE.
EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS PASS THROUGH. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

$$
GAEDE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260557
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-094>098-102>106-260700-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...

..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 2 AM. THESE STORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS WEST OF AN ELDON TO MARSHFIELD TO BRANSON LINE.
EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS PASS WITH SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$
GAEDE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 260557
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-094>098-102>106-260700-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NOW...

..TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH 2 AM. THESE STORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS WEST OF AN ELDON TO MARSHFIELD TO BRANSON LINE.
EXPECT WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS THE STORMS PASS WITH SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...EXPECT WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$
GAEDE

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