Thursday, September 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302249
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...EVEN
WITH FULL SUN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LARGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL MO CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. THEREAFTER...WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LATEST MET MOS IS STARTING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAV MOS GOING LOWER 40S. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE COLDER MET AND GO WITH UPPER 30S ROUGHLY FROM ROLLA TO
SPRINGFIELD AND INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS.

TERRY

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 45 WEST. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSISTING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIG A
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
THIS ENERGY SHEARING OUT AND PULLING NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERED
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP A
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE BLOCK...AND
WHAT WILL BE A GOOD DIGGING REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

WITH THAT SAID...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OZARKS
REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD WARM GIVEN THIS REGIME...WITH RAW
MODEL TEMPERATURES USUALLY A BETTER PERFORMER FOR WHAT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S LOOK QUITE
REASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH MIDDLE 30S VERY
POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST WAS INSERTED INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. WILL THEN NEED TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST TO GAUGE ANY REAL WARMUP. THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 542 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KS
AND MO ON FRIDAY. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301959
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S...EVEN
WITH FULL SUN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY ALLOW
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LARGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL MO CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. THEREAFTER...WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. THE
LATEST MET MOS IS STARTING TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAV MOS GOING LOWER 40S. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE COLDER MET AND GO WITH UPPER 30S ROUGHLY FROM ROLLA TO
SPRINGFIELD AND INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN OUR WEATHER GRIDS.

TERRY

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED AROUND 45 WEST. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSISTING ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIG A
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
THIS ENERGY SHEARING OUT AND PULLING NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERED
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS KEEP A
CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN THE BLOCK...AND
WHAT WILL BE A GOOD DIGGING REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

WITH THAT SAID...A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OZARKS
REGION. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS A TAD WARM GIVEN THIS REGIME...WITH RAW
MODEL TEMPERATURES USUALLY A BETTER PERFORMER FOR WHAT WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S LOOK QUITE
REASONABLE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH MIDDLE 30S VERY
POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS. PATCHY FROST WAS INSERTED INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. WILL THEN NEED TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST TO GAUGE ANY REAL WARMUP. THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AS THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BUT WILL
RELAX NEAR SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING EXPECTED.

GRIFFIN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301724
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS GUST OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY VERY SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND AN EVEN COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 60S AS THE COLDER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES C...WHICH IS VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
PROTECTED AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK...SLOWLY NUDGING
EAST EACH DAY. THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BUT WILL
RELAX NEAR SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING EXPECTED.

GRIFFIN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301139
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS GUST OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY VERY SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND AN EVEN COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 60S AS THE COLDER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES C...WHICH IS VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
PROTECTED AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK...SLOWLY NUDGING
EAST EACH DAY. THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TODAY. SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 20
KTS WILL BE COMMON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING BEFORE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300752
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA SO NO PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS GUST OVER 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY VERY SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGHS AND LOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND AN EVEN COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 60S AS THE COLDER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES C...WHICH IS VERY
COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKE
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS
PROTECTED AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
MONDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK...SLOWLY NUDGING
EAST EACH DAY. THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEAST MO TO SOUTH CNTRL KS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1200Z. GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 30/1400Z AS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE MIXING
INCREASES. WITH LITTLE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300443
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR REVOLVES AROUND THE PASSAGE OF DRY
COLD FRONTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH KEEPING THE OZARKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WALE OF THE LOW...HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY WILL TRAVERS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 DEGREES
C...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT...THINKING THE CHANCES FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED AT BEST.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RE ENFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS AND THE ;UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AS A RESULT.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6 DEGREES C...THE REGION COULD SEE SOME
RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE OZARKS
POTENTIALLY SEEING OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS IN THE MID 30S.

IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN SHOULD MAKE THE CONDITIONS RATHER FALL
LIKE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHEAST MO TO SOUTH CNTRL KS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION BETWEEN 30/0900Z-1200Z. GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER 30/1400Z AS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE MIXING
INCREASES. WITH LITTLE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR REVOLVES AROUND THE PASSAGE OF DRY
COLD FRONTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH KEEPING THE OZARKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WALE OF THE LOW...HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY WILL TRAVERS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 DEGREES
C...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT...THINKING THE CHANCES FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED AT BEST.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RE ENFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS AND THE ;UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AS A RESULT.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6 DEGREES C...THE REGION COULD SEE SOME
RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE OZARKS
POTENTIALLY SEEING OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS IN THE MID 30S.

IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN SHOULD MAKE THE CONDITIONS RATHER FALL
LIKE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN IA TO CNTRL KS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 30/0600Z-1200Z. GUSTY POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 30/1400Z AS DAYTIME CONVECTIVE MIXING INCREASES.
WITH LITTLE PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND A DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291935
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS FOR REVOLVES AROUND THE PASSAGE OF DRY
COLD FRONTS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE ITS
TRACK TO THE SOUTH KEEPING THE OZARKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK RIDGE IN THE WALE OF THE LOW...HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY WILL TRAVERS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 16 DEGREES
C...EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY WARM
OVERNIGHT...THINKING THE CHANCES FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIMITED AT BEST.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION A DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RE ENFORCING SHOT
OF COOL AND DRY AIR TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S
FOR HIGHS AND THE ;UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW AS A RESULT.

THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 6 DEGREES C...THE REGION COULD SEE SOME
RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WITH SOME OF THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE OZARKS
POTENTIALLY SEEING OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS IN THE MID 30S.

IN GENERAL...THE PATTERN SHOULD MAKE THE CONDITIONS RATHER FALL
LIKE FOR THE START OF OCTOBER.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

GRIFFIN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS THE SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS SOME PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL A
FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL STALL
AND REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS TO THE REGION AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

GRIFFIN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291355
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-083-291500-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-DENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM
855 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI ESPECIALLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA LAKES THROUGH 10 AM. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THOSE TRAVELING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN THE VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY WHEN APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY.THE PATCHY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 10 AM.

$$
GRIFFIN

MOZ102>104-291500-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH
855 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA LAKES
THROUGH 10 AM. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN THE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY
WHEN APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY.THE PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT
BY 10 AM.

$$
GRIFFIN

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 291355
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
855 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

GRIFFIN

MOZ102>104-291500-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH
855 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA LAKES
THROUGH 10 AM. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS IN LOCALIZED AREAS. THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN THE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY
WHEN APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY.THE PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT
BY 10 AM.

$$
GRIFFIN

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS THE SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS SOME PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL A
FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL STALL
AND REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS TO THE REGION AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE TERMINAL VICINITIES EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291127
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-083-291400-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-DENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM
627 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI ESPECIALLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND ALONG AREA LAKES THROUGH 9 AM. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE
REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
THE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WHEN APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY 9 AM.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290806
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AS THE SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS SOME PATCHY FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL A
FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING...SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 80S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...RESULTING IN HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL STALL
AND REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING AN EVEN COLDER AIRMASS TO THE REGION AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO
DEGREES C. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH THE COOL CONDITIONS LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 30S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO CALM AT FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD. WITH A CLEAR SKY...NO
WIND AND DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING ZERO...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE DROPPED IT GRADUALLY TO
MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE ONSET OF THE TAFS...THEN
INTO IFR AFTER 10Z. SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290448
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LIFTS WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE WE HAVE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 60S
AND MID 50S THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER
THAN MID AFTERNOON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SETTLES OVER THE OZARKS. SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MEAN RH
VALUES AROUND 40-50 PERCENT WILL WARRANT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND KEEPING MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY MERIDIONAL WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAY CLIP
OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. FOR NOW...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE NEED TO BE LOWERED
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH DROPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WIND HAS DIMINISHED TO CALM AT FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD. WITH A CLEAR SKY...NO
WIND AND DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS APPROACHING ZERO...WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE DROPPED IT GRADUALLY TO
MVFR AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE ONSET OF THE TAFS...THEN
INTO IFR AFTER 10Z. SHOULD BECOME VFR AFTER 15Z.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 282305
FTMSGF

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 28 2010 23:04:00

KSGF RADAR IS OPERATIONAL ONCE AGAIN.

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282241
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LIFTS WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE WE HAVE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 60S
AND MID 50S THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER
THAN MID AFTERNOON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SETTLES OVER THE OZARKS. SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MEAN RH
VALUES AROUND 40-50 PERCENT WILL WARRANT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND KEEPING MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY MERIDIONAL WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAY CLIP
OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. FOR NOW...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE NEED TO BE LOWERED
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH DROPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...

ONLY POTENTIAL AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SOME CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SFC RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVERHEAD BY 09Z-12Z...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SFC WINDS DROPPING TO CALM. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AND CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY.
INTENSITY IS A MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN QUESTION...WITH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ANYTHING BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR.

THAT BEING SAID...HAVE OPTED TO DROP VIS AT SGF TO IFR
RANGE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VIS AS LOW
AS 1/2 SM. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT RAIN...FEEL THAT POTENTIAL FOR
SUB 1 MI VIS IS JUST TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. AT
BBG...CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY AND TERRAIN EFFECTS SUGGEST IFR IS
PROBABLE...AND POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIFR FOR A TIME IN THE
MORNING. JLN SHOULD REMAIN MVFR...WHERE SFC MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
LESS.

ANY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 282144
FTMSGF

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 28 2010 21:44:46

KSGF RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ŸŸ

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
246 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCUSSION...

PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING LIFTS WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE WE HAVE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 60S
AND MID 50S THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SUNRISE...ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER
THAN MID AFTERNOON CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SETTLES OVER THE OZARKS. SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MEAN RH
VALUES AROUND 40-50 PERCENT WILL WARRANT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND KEEPING MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY MERIDIONAL WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON MAY CLIP
OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. FOR NOW...HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE NEED TO BE LOWERED
MORE...ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH DROPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCH
MVFR FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPRINGFIELD AND BRANSON TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE VFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281727
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WHICH HAS KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
JOIN UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AND
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS WEAK. THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TODAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND A ANOTHER COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH LOWS COOLING WELL INTO THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMING RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCH
MVFR FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPRINGFIELD AND BRANSON TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE VFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 281344
FTMSGF
Message Date: Sep 28 2010 13:44:46

KSGF radar will be down for a software upgrade until 1200 CDT. ÿÿ
$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281202
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WHICH HAS KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
JOIN UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AND
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS WEAK. THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TODAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND A ANOTHER COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH LOWS COOLING WELL INTO THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMING RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS OR STRATO CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY BUT SKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN SCATTERED.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280826
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH COOL
AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA WHICH HAS KEPT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY AND WILL
JOIN UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING SOME REINFORCING COOLER AIR TO THE AREA...AND
HIGHS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA WHERE HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS WEAK. THEREFORE NO PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TODAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND A ANOTHER COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FOR END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY WARM INTO THE 60S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH LOWS COOLING WELL INTO THE 40S BOTH NIGHTS. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIMING RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS TROUGH SHOULD THEN DEEPEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING THROUGH THE
AREA NOW AS EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE AND MANUAL OBSERVATION. NAM
SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILING.
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5000 FEET FOR NOW UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Monday, September 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280445
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1145 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FEATURED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
REGIME. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY
FROM OUR MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND WE WILL
OBSERVE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL MUSTER
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GARNER AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND...MAYBE...A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A COOLING TREND WILL BE IN STORE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS HANDLED RATHER CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS AND IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CANADA AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING THROUGH THE
AREA NOW AS EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE AND MANUAL OBSERVATION. NAM
SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SWINGING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILING.
NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5000 FEET FOR NOW UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 272212
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FEATURED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
REGIME. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY
FROM OUR MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND WE WILL
OBSERVE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL MUSTER
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GARNER AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND...MAYBE...A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A COOLING TREND WILL BE IN STORE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS HANDLED RATHER CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS AND IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CANADA AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHIFTING THE WIND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FEATURED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
REGIME. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY
FROM OUR MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WITH READINGS IN THE MID
60S.

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NATION/S MID SECTION AND WE WILL
OBSERVE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FIRST
FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL MUSTER
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GARNER AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA AND...MAYBE...A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN
OZARKS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A COOLING TREND WILL BE IN STORE AS A COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS HANDLED RATHER CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS AND IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES
OUT OF CANADA AND REINFORCES THE COLD AIRMASS ALREADY OVER THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VFR CEILINGS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG MAY OCCUR. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE FOG POTENTIAL AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TO OCCUR.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271759
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOW AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY LOW LYING
AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A
SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY THAT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE
DRY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT BY MID WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND A BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY TO ONCE AGAIN COOL THINGS DOWN.
ALSO ANTICIPATING THIS FRONT TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

GAEDE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ENOUGH TUESDAY MORNING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VFR CEILINGS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT
FOG MAY OCCUR. DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THE FOG POTENTIAL AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TO OCCUR.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271207
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
707 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOW AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY LOW LYING
AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A
SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY THAT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE
DRY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT BY MID WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND A BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY TO ONCE AGAIN COOL THINGS DOWN.
ALSO ANTICIPATING THIS FRONT TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

GAEDE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 654 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010/

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 271211
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271400-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
711 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MAINLY RIVER VALLEYS AND AREA LAKES ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. THE
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS IN
LOCALIZED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN THE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WHEN
APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY 9
AM.

$$
FOSTER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 271211
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271400-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
711 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

NOW...
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MAINLY RIVER VALLEYS AND AREA LAKES ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 9 AM. THE
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ONE HALF OF A MILE OR LESS IN
LOCALIZED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THOSE TRAVELING THIS MORNING SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN THE VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY WHEN
APPROACHING A LAKE OR RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL LIFT BY 9
AM.

$$
FOSTER

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT MON SEP 27 2010

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOW AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY LOW LYING
AREAS AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A
SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY THAT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE
DRY WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH ITS PASSAGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT BY MID WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AND A BRIEF WARM UP WILL OCCUR. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY TO ONCE AGAIN COOL THINGS DOWN.
ALSO ANTICIPATING THIS FRONT TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

GAEDE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM STILL IN THE BOOTHEEL. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LEFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND HAVE SEEN
STEADY DECREASE IN STRATUS DECK DURING THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOST
LOCATIONS TO BECOME CLEAR OR SCT AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Sunday, September 26, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 270439
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 118 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT...AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LOW NEAR KSTL AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAST THEY WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE REGION. THE GFS 850MB RH
PROG INDICATES THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO THE MO/AR LINE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY CLEARING LATE. A
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF...IF NOT QUITE ALL OF
THE CWFA...EXPECT THAT SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA LAKES AND LOW LYING TERRAIN.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION
MON...WARMER WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD. PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EDGES SLIGHTLY EAST. A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM LATE IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT THE WESTERN
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUNDAY. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK...THEN COOLING SLIGHTLY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVERHEAD WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM STILL IN THE BOOTHEEL. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE LEFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND HAVE SEEN
STEADY DECREASE IN STRATUS DECK DURING THE EVENING. EXPECTING MOST
LOCATIONS TO BECOME CLEAR OR SCT AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
06Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 262244
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 118 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT...AND
THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LOW NEAR KSTL AT MIDDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS BY 12Z MONDAY. LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW FAST THEY WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THE REGION. THE GFS 850MB RH
PROG INDICATES THAT CLOUDS MAY LINGER CLOSE TO THE MO/AR LINE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY CLEARING LATE. A
SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT. WITH CLEARING EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF...IF NOT QUITE ALL OF
THE CWFA...EXPECT THAT SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA LAKES AND LOW LYING TERRAIN.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION
MON...WARMER WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD. PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE EDGES SLIGHTLY EAST. A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NOAM LATE IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT THE WESTERN
RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST FOR FRI/SAT/SUNDAY. WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDWEEK...THEN COOLING SLIGHTLY
LATE IN THE WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SEEING SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST ON SATELLITE AND
WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER CLEARING...SHOULD HAVE VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260607
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/
A COLD FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS USHERING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND A MORE
AUTUMN LIKE AIRMASS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
SLIDING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WAS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
OZARKS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY ONLY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1243 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010/

A COLD FRONT HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF AREA TERMINALS USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS. IT
APPEARS ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OF AREA
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE RISING TO VFR.

OBSERVATIONS TAKEN AT THE BRANSON AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVATION
SYSTEM ARE NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
SUSPENDED UNTIL OBSERVATIONS RESUME.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Saturday, September 25, 2010

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260443
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

KSZ073-097-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-089>092-096>098-105-106-
260600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-
OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...WARSAW...
COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...
HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
1143 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

NOW...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF
AN OSAGE BEACH TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH 1 AM.

$$
LINDENBERG

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 260440
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST POINTS
THIS EVENING WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND BEGINNING TO GUST NOW AS
THE LOWER CEILINGS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS
MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BUT SHOULD START
TO SEE DRIZZLE DEVELOP AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN. HAVE GONE WITH IFR
CONDITONS OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY THE END OF THE TAFS.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260258
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
958 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

KSZ073-097-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-089>092-098-260500-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-SHANNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...WARSAW...
COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...
HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...WINONA...
EMINENCE
958 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

NOW...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
AND EAST OF OF AN SCHELL CITY TO ROLLA LINE.

$$
LINDENBERG

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 260109
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
809 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-079>083-092-098-260300-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-SHANNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...
CABOOL...SALEM...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...WINONA...EMINENCE
809 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

NOW...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 10 PM. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH
AND EAST OF OF AN OSCEOLA TO EMINENCE LINE.

$$
LINDENBERG

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 252300
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. EXPECTING MVFR THEN
IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE. A GRADUAL
RISING TREND IN CEILINGS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251943
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

DISCUSSION...

CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD REINFORCING COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE
MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH OVER TIME AS IT BECOMES SEPARATED
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING. THIS FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS
MISSOURI FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE.

SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES WITH COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS THAT WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY
REINFORCING THE WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S BY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEARLY PRECIPITATION FREE AS ALL OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE TAPPING DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

FOR THE 25/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NW MO INTO NORTHERN KS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING (00Z-04Z). EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MS VLY REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND SREF PROGGED CEILING/VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A
MENTION OF IFR OR LOW END MVFR CEILINGS...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z-
09Z...AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE FROM THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 251739
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE KANSAS AND ARKANSAS BORDERS. UPS
FOG GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CURRENT TEMPS
ARE JUST A LITTLE BELOW AFTERNOON CROSSOVER TEMPS. TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS ARE ALSO JUST ABOUT NIL...SO WILL MENTION FOG IN ZONES
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND MENTION MAINLY VALLEY/LOW LYING AREAS.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSOURI
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES FROM LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM CAMDENTON TO LEBANON TO WEST PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE.

BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
STAY EAST OF THE OZARKS AS A SEMI-PERMANENT UPPER TROUGH SETS UP
OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010/

FOR THE 25/1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
FROM NW MO INTO NORTHERN KS WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING (00Z-04Z). EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE MID
MS VLY REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NAM AND SREF PROGGED CEILING/VISIBILITY PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A
MENTION OF IFR OR LOW END MVFR CEILINGS...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z-
09Z...AS LOWER LEVELS SATURATE FROM THE EXPECTED LIGHT RAIN. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Friday, September 24, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 250438
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010/

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST EMPHASIS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE IA/MO STATE LINE BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHALLOW FOG NEAR AREA LAKES AND IN LOW LYING TERRAIN.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER MT...ANOTHER ALONG
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE...WILL PHASE AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
IL/EASTERN MO BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT
ALL ARE PAINTING THE SAME BASIC SCENARIO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN LINE WITH A MOS
BLEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWFA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
WITH SOME AREAS BARELY GETTING INTO THE 60S.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK (AFTER SUNDAY). A DEEP UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WAS SETTLING OVER THE CWA LATE
THIS EVENING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. DEW POINTS
DEPRESSIONS WERE DIMINISHING AND COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME MVFR FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED IT TO THIS VERSION OF THE TAFS. NEXT
FOCUS WILL BE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF OVER THE REGION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HAVE STARTED BRINGING IN LOWER CEILINGS BY LATE IN THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH SURFACE WIND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST/NORTH DIRECTION.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 242229
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
529 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010/

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN
FORECAST EMPHASIS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE IA/MO STATE LINE BY EARLY SAT MORNING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA...BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHALLOW FOG NEAR AREA LAKES AND IN LOW LYING TERRAIN.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS WELL...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.

A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE OVER MT...ANOTHER ALONG
THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN LINE...WILL PHASE AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO
IL/EASTERN MO BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...BUT
ALL ARE PAINTING THE SAME BASIC SCENARIO. CONVECTION OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWFA SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN LINE WITH A MOS
BLEND. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CWFA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
WITH SOME AREAS BARELY GETTING INTO THE 60S.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK (AFTER SUNDAY). A DEEP UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AFTER THIS TAF ISSUANCE EXPIRES AND MAY
BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 241733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010/

A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WERE FORMING WITHIN
A FETCH OF DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED A PLUME CONNECTED TO THE TROPICS BUT TAKING A
RATHER LONG WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS BEFORE
REACHING THE OZARKS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA WHICH SAMPLED
THE AIR MASS WELL SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY
BUT OVERALL RAIN INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. THE
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING FAIRLY STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND HAS
CLEARED BOURBON...VERNON AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...SO WE PLAN TO
REMOVE THESE AREAS FROM THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WE WILL BE
MAKING A LAST MINUTE CALL ON OTHER COUNTIES TO REMOVE BASED ON
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OVERALL TRENDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TO
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF ENDING PRECIP FROM WEST
TO EAST...AND WIND SHIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE
CURRENT PLAN IS TO SPEED BOTH THE FROPA AND PRECIP ENDING UP A
BIT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.

A DECENT COOL DOWN IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL
GENERATING SOME LOWER END PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THIS FEATURE IN
ADDITION TO TRANSPORTING A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR AND
DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE AS COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT MAY DESTABILIZE THE AREA ENOUGH FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER SLUG OF LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SINCE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE CLOSED LOW...AND KEEP A LITTLE EXTRA CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR PERIOD SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010/

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE KBBG SITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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