Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 010453
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-MOZ055>057-066>069-078-010630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-
CAMDEN-CEDAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...WARSAW...
COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON
1153 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BETWEEN 1230 AM AND 130
AM. A GUST FRONT WILL PRECEDE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

$$
DSA


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010414
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1114 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TOT HE
NORTHWEST OVER FAR NW MO AND NE KS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT
VEERING MID LEVEL 500MB WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WILL BUMP UP RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER E-SE BEFORE
FURTHER WEAKENING.

OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST CNTRL MO INTO KS AND OK MAY
ALSO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROPAGATE NE. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN MCS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND WILL HELP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT TOMORROW. ON THURSDAY THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

KARDELL

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
KEEPING THE AREA NESTLED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LENDING
TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE STRONG FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 01/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...AN AREA OF WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE THE KC METRO AREA
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE OK/SE KS
MAY ALSO TRY TO MOVE INTO THE KJLN AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL TRY TO
ESTIMATE THE ONSET TIME OF ANY PRECIP AS BEST I CAN...BUT BOTH THESE
STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE FIGHTING AN INCREASINGLY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER. BELIEVE SHRA/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE 08Z-11Z
TIME FRAME AT KSGF/KJLN. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
PRECIP...BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS. WILL LIKELY STAY THE COURSE WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE CONVECTION. AFTER 16Z...WILL GO PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT
THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT WHERE SUFFICIENT SFC
HEATING OCCURS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 010041
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
741 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>068-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102-
010200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-
BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-MCDONALD-BARRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...LAMAR...
EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE
741 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 9 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010021
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
721 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 712 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TOT HE
NORTHWEST OVER FAR NW MO AND NE KS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SSW
FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT
VEERING MID LEVEL 500MB WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND WILL BUMP UP RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWFA FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER E-SE BEFORE
FURTHER WEAKENING.

OTHER ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM WEST CNTRL MO INTO KS AND OK MAY
ALSO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROPAGATE NE. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN MCS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND WILL HELP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT TOMORROW. ON THURSDAY THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

KARDELL

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
KEEPING THE AREA NESTLED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LENDING
TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE STRONG FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 01/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO
START. SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE MO/KS
BORDER THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KSGF/KJLN SITES. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 312149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>057-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105-010000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-
GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...MAINLY
WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 312149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>057-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105-010000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-
GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...
GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA
449 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 7 PM...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...MAINLY
WEST OF MISSOURI HIGHWAY 5. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 227 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO
THE AREA TODAY. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN MCS EARLY IN THE
MORNING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN CWA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND WILL HELP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT TOMORROW. ON THURSDAY THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL...ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE AREA.

KARDELL

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING
TO A PLEASANT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN
KEEPING THE AREA NESTLED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT LENDING
TO BELOW AVG TEMPERATURES. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WARMTH AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE
TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA
APPEARS TO BE STRONG FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING THE MAIN STORM
TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE OZARKS WILL
REMAIN VFR THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE REGION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT AERODROMES AS EARLY AS 11Z WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE CEILINGS AS CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWER IN HEIGHT.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311854
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-312100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
154 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOP THROUGH 4 PM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WINDS TO 30
MPH.

$$
HATCH


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 311854
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-312100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
154 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOP THROUGH 4 PM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL SEE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND WINDS TO 30
MPH.

$$
HATCH


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LAST FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 310-315K
SURFACES. MAY STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
WESTERN CWA CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTING A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY WHICH WILL APPROACH FREELY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LOW MAY
ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. WITH FAIRLY HIGH
PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE WOULD YIELD HEALTHY
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING HOWEVER WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CWA.

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE
PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL AID
SURFACE FRONT IN PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE OZARKS WILL
REMAIN VFR THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE REGION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT AERODROMES AS EARLY AS 11Z WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE CEILINGS AS CLOUDS SLOWLY LOWER IN HEIGHT.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311353
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
853 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MEASURE A TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

$$
HATCH


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 311353
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
853 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
853 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 11 AM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MEASURE A TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

$$
HATCH


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 311314
FTMSGF
Message Date: Aug 31 2010 13:14:22

THE WSR-88D IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE THROUGH 11 AM C
DT.

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311137
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LAST FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 310-315K
SURFACES. MAY STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
WESTERN CWA CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTING A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY WHICH WILL APPROACH FREELY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LOW MAY
ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. WITH FAIRLY HIGH
PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE WOULD YIELD HEALTHY
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING HOWEVER WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CWA.

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE
PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL AID
SURFACE FRONT IN PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TODAY...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
AS THOUGH COVERAGE OF THIS RAIN WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO EXPANDING CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL MITIGATE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND RESULTING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE PILOTS CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH
EXPANDING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311117
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 311117
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM. MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MILD AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LAST FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS WITH SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM 310-315K
SURFACES. MAY STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN
WESTERN CWA CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECTING A
BREAK IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MID TO LATE MORNING UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S TODAY WHICH WILL APPROACH FREELY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LOW MAY
ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. WITH FAIRLY HIGH
PW VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE WOULD YIELD HEALTHY
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING HOWEVER WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CWA.

MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COULD PUSH INTO NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE
PROBABLE PRECIPITATION TIMING ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND WILL AID
SURFACE FRONT IN PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE TO EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE PLAINS. HAVE KEPT DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NOW.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

FOR THE 31/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
TERRAIN ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR AT KSGF OVERNIGHT.
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH DIRECTIONAL AND
SOME VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR BELOW A WEAK NIGHTTIME INVERSION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MO OZARK PLATEAU...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE KBBG
TAF AFTER 31/1100Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN DIURNAL CUMULUS INITIALLY
DEVELOPS LATE TUE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
(SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TUE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHRA/TSRA TIMING
IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND TIMING...BUT
DID GO AHEAD AND ADD CB/CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD DESIGNATOR AFTER
31/1700Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Monday, August 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310448
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT GRIDS. FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SSW-LY FLOW WILL VEER LATE TONIGHT ENHANCING A CORRIDOR OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER ROUGHLY ALONG THE HWY 71
KS/MO BORDER REGION. ADDED SMALL INCREASES IN POPS TO TO THE
WESTERN CWFA...MAINLY AFTER 09Z. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SURFACE
PRESSURES TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO DROP AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...OVER AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS HEATING DIES OFF AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SIMILAR REGIME OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FURTHER TO THE WEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH MOVES STEADILY TO THE
EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE JET TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE JET TRACK. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS PRESSURES RISE BEHIND
IT. FLOW WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTH SPREADING A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
TO LOWER 80S. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE IN STORE AS
WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED LOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
AGAIN TURN SOUTHERLY.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

FOR THE 31/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
TERRAIN ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR AT KSGF OVERNIGHT.
MAINTAINED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH DIRECTIONAL AND
SOME VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR BELOW A WEAK NIGHTTIME INVERSION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARD MORNING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE MO OZARK PLATEAU...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE KBBG
TAF AFTER 31/1100Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN DIURNAL CUMULUS INITIALLY
DEVELOPS LATE TUE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SHRA/TSRA LATE TONIGHT
(SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE)...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TUE WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHRA/TSRA TIMING
IS STILL HARD TO NAIL DOWN IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND TIMING...BUT
DID GO AHEAD AND ADD CB/CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD DESIGNATOR AFTER
31/1700Z. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302357
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
657 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SURFACE
PRESSURES TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO DROP AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...OVER AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS HEATING DIES OFF AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SIMILAR REGIME OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FURTHER TO THE WEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH MOVES STEADILY TO THE
EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE JET TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE JET TRACK. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS PRESSURES RISE BEHIND
IT. FLOW WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTH SPREADING A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
TO LOWER 80S. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE IN STORE AS
WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED LOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
AGAIN TURN SOUTHERLY.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

FOR THE 31/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MO
OZARK PLATEAU...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS IN THE KBBG AFTER 31/1000Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN DIURNAL CUMULUS INITIALLY DEVELOPS LATE TUE
MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHRA/TSRA AFTER 31/1800Z BUT
THE EXPECTED RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE...AND LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO
PLACEMENT DO NOT WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 302213
FTMSGF
Message Date: Aug 30 2010 22:13:53

THE KSGF RADAR IS BACK UP AND RUNNING. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 302202
FTMSGF
Message Date: Aug 30 2010 22:02:06

The KSGF RADAR IS DOWN. TECHS ARE WORKING TO RESTORE IT. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302300-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
449 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM...MAINLY FROM THE STOCKTON LAKE...BOLIVAR...AND
FORT LEONARD SOUTH TO OZARK..AVA...AND WILLOW SPRINGS. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. ISOLATED DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 302149
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302300-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
449 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM...MAINLY FROM THE STOCKTON LAKE...BOLIVAR...AND
FORT LEONARD SOUTH TO OZARK..AVA...AND WILLOW SPRINGS. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. ISOLATED DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301935
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DRY CANADIAN AIR
MASS SETTLES OVERHEAD.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. SURFACE
PRESSURES TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO DROP AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...OVER AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS HEATING DIES OFF AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SIMILAR REGIME OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD FURTHER TO THE WEST
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
REGARDS TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE TROUGH MOVES STEADILY TO THE
EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING IN BEHIND IT. THE JET TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF OF THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT MAY BE PRESENT.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE
NORTH CLOSER TO THE JET TRACK. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS PRESSURES RISE BEHIND
IT. FLOW WILL THEN TURN OUT OF THE NORTH SPREADING A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS INTO THE AREA THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID
TO LOWER 80S. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE IN STORE AS
WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE INDICATED LOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS
AGAIN TURN SOUTHERLY.

KARDELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH A SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
MO THUS FAR THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY WORK INTO KBBG
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT KSGF AND KJLN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. ANTICIPATE SEEING A LOSS OF DIURNAL CU THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF VFR TO PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THIS MORNING.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH LLWS AT KJLN...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301859
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ070-071-082-083-091>098-101>106-302200-
PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
159 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO ROLLA LINE.

$$

BOXELL


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301859
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
159 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ070-071-082-083-091>098-101>106-302200-
PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
159 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A CASSVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD TO ROLLA LINE.

$$

BOXELL

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301809
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
109 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-092-093-095>098-101>106-301915-
TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-NEWTON-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
109 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

$$
BOXELL


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301809
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
109 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-092-093-095>098-101>106-301915-
TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-NEWTON-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-
MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
109 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

$$
BOXELL


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301721
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS BROAD VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. CLOSER
EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS SPC/RUC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS ONE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ANOTHER LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THINK THAT
MAIN FORCING FOR ONGOING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OZARKS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE/VORT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING FOR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FEEL LIKE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA OVER AREAS ALONG/WEST OF U.S. LOOK PRETTY LOW...WITH
FORCING BECOMING BETTER SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BOXELL

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD OF
AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF INTO THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HOWEVER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND IS SLOWING THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OVERALL NOT
OVERLY HEAVY. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA...HAS STARTED TO SLOW ITS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD PUSH EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL PUSH FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT DOES SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON THERE. THEREFORE...THINK
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DUE TO
THE EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH A WARM AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST THOUGH SHOULD
REALLY LIMIT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS FROM
THE WESTERN TO EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST ALLOWED
TO SPREAD BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...GENERALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME FRAME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD BY ANY MEANS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THE LARGE PART MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRYING TO OVERRIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT
WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
ISSUE.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...WITH A SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
MO THUS FAR THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY WORK INTO KBBG
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY BELIEVE THAT KSGF AND KJLN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. ANTICIPATE SEEING A LOSS OF DIURNAL CU THIS
EVENING...ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE SHRA ACTIVITY. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF VFR TO PERHAPS MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THIS MORNING.
ONLY OTHER CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH LLWS AT KJLN...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301653
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-092-096>098-105-106-302000-
TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1153 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

$$
BOXELL

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 301607
FTMSGF
Message Date: Aug 30 2010 16:07:59

KSGF RADAR IS ONCE AGAIN FULLY OPERATIONAL. DW ÿÿè

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301504
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1004 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

UPDATE...

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS THIS
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS BROAD VORT LOBES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. CLOSER
EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR AS WELL AS SPC/RUC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS ONE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ANOTHER LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THINK THAT
MAIN FORCING FOR ONGOING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OZARKS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE/VORT OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING FOR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FEEL LIKE CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA OVER AREAS ALONG/WEST OF U.S. LOOK PRETTY LOW...WITH
FORCING BECOMING BETTER SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA...AS
WELL AS SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN PLACE.

BOXELL

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD OF
AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF INTO THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HOWEVER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND IS SLOWING THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OVERALL NOT
OVERLY HEAVY. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA...HAS STARTED TO SLOW ITS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD PUSH EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL PUSH FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT DOES SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON THERE. THEREFORE...THINK
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DUE TO
THE EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH A WARM AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST THOUGH SHOULD
REALLY LIMIT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS FROM
THE WESTERN TO EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST ALLOWED
TO SPREAD BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...GENERALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME FRAME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD BY ANY MEANS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THE LARGE PART MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRYING TO OVERRIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT
WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
ISSUE.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHERE THE SREF HAD THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SGF/JLN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING WITH BBG IN THE IFR.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST AT BBG.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 301407
FTMSGF
Message Date: Aug 30 2010 14:07:00

KSGF RADAR WILL BE DOWN MOR MAINTENANCE UNTIL 1030 CDT. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301358
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
858 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-092-096>098-105-106-301700-
TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
858 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF A BRANSON TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

$$
BOXELL


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301231
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
731 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-096>098-105-106-301400-
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
731 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 900 AM.
THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BRANSON
TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

$$
LINDENBERG

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301139
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
639 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-096>098-105-106-301300-
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
639 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 800 AM.
THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BRANSON
TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

$$
LINDENBERG


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301059
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD OF
AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF INTO THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HOWEVER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND IS SLOWING THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OVERALL NOT
OVERLY HEAVY. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA...HAS STARTED TO SLOW ITS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD PUSH EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL PUSH FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT DOES SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON THERE. THEREFORE...THINK
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DUE TO
THE EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH A WARM AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST THOUGH SHOULD
REALLY LIMIT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS FROM
THE WESTERN TO EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST ALLOWED
TO SPREAD BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...GENERALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME FRAME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD BY ANY MEANS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THE LARGE PART MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRYING TO OVERRIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT
WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
ISSUE.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHERE THE SREF HAD THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SGF/JLN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING WITH BBG IN THE IFR.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL HOLD ON THE LONGEST AT BBG.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301015
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

MOZ082-083-096>098-105-106-301130-
TEXAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
515 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 630 AM.
THE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A BRANSON
TO SALEM LINE WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

$$
LINDENBERG

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300834
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AHEAD OF
AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE WEST COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF INTO THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR HOWEVER
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND IS SLOWING THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITHIN THIS MOISTURE
PLUME. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH IS RESULTING IN A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND OVERALL NOT
OVERLY HEAVY. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHERE THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. THE STRATUS DECK WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA...HAS STARTED TO SLOW ITS NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD PUSH EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT MAY STILL PUSH FARTHER TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON IF IT DOES SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS. WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD
DECK WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON THERE. THEREFORE...THINK
CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI DUE TO
THE EXPECTED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WITH A WARM AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST THOUGH SHOULD
REALLY LIMIT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EXPECTED. THEREFORE...A TEN DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGHS FROM
THE WESTERN TO EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST ALLOWED
TO SPREAD BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...GENERALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME FRAME. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL STILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD BY ANY MEANS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE BETTER SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT BY THE LARGE PART MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS
STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF FOR THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRYING TO OVERRIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT IT
WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AT THIS TIME AS THIS WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
ISSUE.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. KUNO/WEST PLAINS WAS HIGH END
IFR/LOW END MVFR FOR CEILINGS AT 04Z...AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MO OZARK PLATEAU. THE SREF ALSO PINPOINTS
LOWER CEILINGS SOUTH OF I-44 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO. KBBG/BRANSON
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
KSGF/SPRINGFIELD BEING MORE BORDERLINE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW. LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT MONDAY
MORNING AFTER 14Z...BUT MVFR CUMULUS CEILINGS MAY LAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KBBG...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300455
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES IN
RESPONSE TO UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

BROAD PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXES CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUE ON
THIS MORNING'S 12Z SGF RAOB IS NEARLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN JUST 24 HRS
AGO (0.55 YESTERDAY TO 1.59 TODAY) AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BKN CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER PWATS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF
MEMPHIS AT 1830Z...AND DO THINK THAT DESPITE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

ON TUESDAY...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
UNSETTLED UPPER FLOW TO BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE
SCALE BUT SUBTLE FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 65. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY/EVENING TUESDAY...AND
THE SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN AT
LEAST A SCATTERED FASHION.

BOXELL

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LONG TERM WAS AGAIN EVIDENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT STILL WENT WITH
MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT FULLY KICKS THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILDS IN A WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIGHT
OVER THE CWA.

BEYOND DAY 5...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES
BECAUSE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THREE WAVE LOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE US INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH HAS BEEN
THE ROUTINE OF LATE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COOL AND DRY AIR COULD RETURN
TO THE AREA IF THIS PANS OUT BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPERED THE LOW DEW
POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS BECAUSE THE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.

CROWE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. KUNO/WEST PLAINS WAS HIGH END
IFR/LOW END MVFR FOR CEILINGS AT 04Z...AND BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MO OZARK PLATEAU. THE SREF ALSO PINPOINTS
LOWER CEILINGS SOUTH OF I-44 IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO. KBBG/BRANSON
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT...WITH
KSGF/SPRINGFIELD BEING MORE BORDERLINE...WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW. LOWER CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT MONDAY
MORNING AFTER 14Z...BUT MVFR CUMULUS CEILINGS MAY LAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KBBG...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292353
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES IN
RESPONSE TO UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

BROAD PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXES CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUE ON
THIS MORNING'S 12Z SGF RAOB IS NEARLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN JUST 24 HRS
AGO (0.55 YESTERDAY TO 1.59 TODAY) AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BKN CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER PWATS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF
MEMPHIS AT 1830Z...AND DO THINK THAT DESPITE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

ON TUESDAY...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
UNSETTLED UPPER FLOW TO BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE
SCALE BUT SUBTLE FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 65. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY/EVENING TUESDAY...AND
THE SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN AT
LEAST A SCATTERED FASHION.

BOXELL

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LONG TERM WAS AGAIN EVIDENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT STILL WENT WITH
MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT FULLY KICKS THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILDS IN A WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIGHT
OVER THE CWA.

BEYOND DAY 5...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES
BECAUSE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THREE WAVE LOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE US INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH HAS BEEN
THE ROUTINE OF LATE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COOL AND DRY AIR COULD RETURN
TO THE AREA IF THIS PANS OUT BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPERED THE LOW DEW
POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS BECAUSE THE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.

CROWE

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/

FOR THE 30/0000Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER AR
HAVE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AFTER 30/0600Z. WITH A
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW...KBBG/BRANSON GENERALLY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR LOWER CEILINGS...SO WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER
CEILINGS THERE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG/HAZE...SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AFTER 30/14-15Z. GIVEN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME MVFR CUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292217 CCA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES IN
RESPONSE TO UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

BROAD PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXES CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUE ON
THIS MORNING'S 12Z SGF RAOB IS NEARLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN JUST 24 HRS
AGO (0.55 YESTERDAY TO 1.59 TODAY) AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO
THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BKN CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER PWATS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF
MEMPHIS AT 1830Z...AND DO THINK THAT DESPITE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON MONDAY.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

ON TUESDAY...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
UNSETTLED UPPER FLOW TO BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE
SCALE BUT SUBTLE FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 65. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY/EVENING TUESDAY...AND
THE SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN AT
LEAST A SCATTERED FASHION.

BOXELL

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LONG TERM WAS AGAIN EVIDENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT STILL WENT WITH
MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT FULLY KICKS THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILDS IN A WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIGHT
OVER THE CWA.

BEYOND DAY 5...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES
BECAUSE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THREE WAVE LOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE US INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH HAS BEEN
THE ROUTINE OF LATE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COOL AND DRY AIR COULD RETURN
TO THE AREA IF THIS PANS OUT BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPERED THE LOW DEW
POINTS AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS BECAUSE THE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.

CROWE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CHALLENGING AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINALS TODAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY. LOW AND MID LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
AREA...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. LATE TONIGHT...COMBINATION
OF RICHER MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KBBG. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
HITTING IFR CIGS QUITE HARD AFTER 07Z OR SO TONIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY FOR CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR OR HIGHER THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE NEAR UNANIMOUS MODEL AGREEMENT IS HARD TO IGNORE.
SO FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE...HAVE HINTED AT IFR POSSIBILITY AT
KSGF...THOUGH FORECAST IS TECHNICALLY FOR MVFR CIGS ATTM. DO FEEL
LIKE KJLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR TO VFR WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. DID TAKE KBBG DOWN TO IFR...CONSIDERING THAT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY BBG TENDS TO BE THE MOST PRONE TO SUB-MVFR
CIG/VIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW IFR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE LATER FORECAST
SHIFTS DROPPING CIGS FURTHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291948
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
GULF TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES IN
RESPONSE TO UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

BROAD PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXES CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY. PWAT VALUE
ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z SGF RAOB IS NEARLY 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN JUST 24 HRS
AGO (0.55 YESTERDAY TO 1.59 TODAY) AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED
INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BKN CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DENSEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA...COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER PWATS. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN THE VICINITY OF
MEMPHIS AT 1830Z...AND DO THINK THAT DESPITE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES APPEAR
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ESSENTIALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON
MONDAY. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.

ON TUESDAY...BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
UNSETTLED UPPER FLOW TO BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE
SCALE BUT SUBTLE FORCING AND WHAT SHOULD BE A MOISTURE-RICH
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SMATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 65. MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY/EVENING TUESDAY...AND
THE SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN AT
LEAST A SCATTERED FASHION.

BOXELL

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...

MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LONG TERM WAS AGAIN EVIDENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE HANDLING OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT STILL WENT WITH
MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT FULLY KICKS THE FRONT OUT OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILDS IN A WEAK SURFACE HIGH RIGHT
OVER THE CWA.

BEYOND DAY 5...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASES
BECAUSE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THREE WAVE LOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE US INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY
WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST...WHICH HAS BEEN
THE ROUTINE OF LATE. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COOL AND DRY AIR COULD RETURN
TO THE AREA IF THIS PANS OUT BUT FOR NOW HAVE TEMPERED THE LOW TDS
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS BECAUSE THE GFS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.

CROWE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

CHALLENGING AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE
TERMINALS TODAY...WITH POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY. LOW AND MID LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND WITH GULF MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
AREA...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. LATE TONIGHT...COMBINATION
OF RICHER MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT KSGF AND KBBG. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
HITTING IFR CIGS QUITE HARD AFTER 07Z OR SO TONIGHT...AND DESPITE
CLIMATOLOGICAL TENDENCY FOR CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR OR HIGHER THIS
TIME OF YEAR...THE NEAR UNANIMOUS MODEL AGREEMENT IS HARD TO IGNORE.
SO FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE...HAVE HINTED AT IFR POSSIBILITY AT
KSGF...THOUGH FORECAST IS TECHNICALLY FOR MVFR CIGS ATTM. DO FEEL
LIKE KJLN WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR TO VFR WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE. DID TAKE KBBG DOWN TO IFR...CONSIDERING THAT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY BBG TENDS TO BE THE MOST PRONE TO SUB-MVFR
CIG/VIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW IFR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE LATER FORECAST
SHIFTS DROPPING CIGS FURTHER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY SHOWN.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com