Saturday, July 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010446
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER. FEEL THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE 925/850 MB FRONT MOVES INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
FAILED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH UP TO THIS POINT
AS THE MID LEVEL AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY. SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVELS
ARE QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST...AND THAT PARCELS JUST ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN BUOYANT INTO MID
EVENING. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO
SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH
MAX HEATING FOR THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE ALONG THE FRONT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALSO BEGIN TO WANE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY.

GAEDE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THIS COUPLED WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON DEWPOINT VALUES AS SOME AFTERNOON MIXING MAY
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IF NOT 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.

INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010004
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER. FEEL THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE 925/850 MB FRONT MOVES INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAVE
FAILED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING FARTHER TO THE NORTH UP TO THIS POINT
AS THE MID LEVEL AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY. SHORT TERM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVELS
ARE QUITE A BIT MORE MOIST...AND THAT PARCELS JUST ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN BUOYANT INTO MID
EVENING. ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO
SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH
MAX HEATING FOR THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE ALONG THE FRONT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALSO BEGIN TO WANE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY.

GAEDE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THIS COUPLED WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON DEWPOINT VALUES AS SOME AFTERNOON MIXING MAY
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IF NOT 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.

INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KBBG
AERODROME EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERED THIS WITH A VCTS GROUP...BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREVAILING THUNDER
GROUP THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. REMOVED THE MVFR FOR LATER TONIGHT AS THIS
PATTERN HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO YIELD LIGHT FOG FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 312215
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

MOZ097-098-103>106-010015-
HOWELL-SHANNON-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THROUGH 7 PM...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF A BRANSON TO WINONA LINE. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30
MPH WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS. RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS BY MID EVENING.

$$

SCHAUMANN


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311956
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

MOZ082-095>098-102>106-312215-
SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO
REEDS SPRING LINE THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

AT 250 PM THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE GENERALLY LOCATED ACROSS OREGON
COUNTY FROM THE COMMUNITIES OF THOMASVILLE TO ALTON TO WILDERNESS.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 311956
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

MOZ082-095>098-102>106-312215-
SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
256 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN EMINENCE TO
REEDS SPRING LINE THROUGH 5 PM THIS EVENING.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

AT 250 PM THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE GENERALLY LOCATED ACROSS OREGON
COUNTY FROM THE COMMUNITIES OF THOMASVILLE TO ALTON TO WILDERNESS.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311929
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)...

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WAS
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE POOLING AND
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO
SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE APPROACH
MAX HEATING FOR THE DAY. MLCAPES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-3000
J/KG RANGE ALONG THE FRONT. ONCE WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE HEATING OF
THE DAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALSO BEGIN TO WANE.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUNDAY WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
TODAY.

GAEDE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THIS COUPLED WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVELY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXIST ON DEWPOINT VALUES AS SOME AFTERNOON MIXING MAY
TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 IF NOT 105 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.

INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF BBG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TERMINALS WELL INTO SUNDAY.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311851
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
151 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

MOZ096>098-105-106-312115-
DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
151 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI MAINLY NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER THROUGH 4 PM. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS OREGON COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

$$
FOSTER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311704
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY SAGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT'S NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY. WE DO FEEL AS THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW...THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT MENTION OF RAIN
WITHIN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT
OF HAND. NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS ANY RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE EXPANSION OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.

PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE. I SUSPECT THAT HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL INDICATIONS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS A
STRONG SUMMERTIME HIGH IN PLACE...CONFINING ALL SURFACE FEATURES
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BOTTOM LINE...INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF BBG. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN IN EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS TODAY. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST
AREA TERMINALS WELL INTO SUNDAY.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311131
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY SAGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT'S NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY. WE DO FEEL AS THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW...THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT MENTION OF RAIN
WITHIN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT
OF HAND. NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS ANY RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE EXPANSION OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.

PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE. I SUSPECT THAT HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL INDICATIONS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS A
STRONG SUMMERTIME HIGH IN PLACE...CONFINING ALL SURFACE FEATURES
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BOTTOM LINE...INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

FOR THE 31/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEB SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO IA/NORTHERN MO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL THIS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH...IF ANY...IMPACT ON
FLIGHT CAT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DEEPER CONVECTION/TSTMS ALONG THE
MO/AR BORDER AFTER 18Z WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY POOL
ALONG/NEAR THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE KBBG/BRANSON TAF GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ISOLD/WDLY SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY PRECIP. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310741
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS SLOWLY SAGGING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT'S NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TODAY. WE DO FEEL AS THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LOW...THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT MENTION OF RAIN
WITHIN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. CLOUD COVER AND A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH WILL MITIGATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT
OF HAND. NO HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIRMASS ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS ANY RAIN
CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE EXPANSION OF THE SUMMERTIME HIGH.

PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME POSITIONED VERY CLOSE TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
90S. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
TRAJECTORIES AT THE SURFACE. I SUSPECT THAT HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ALL INDICATIONS FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TOWARD AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS
THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS A
STRONG SUMMERTIME HIGH IN PLACE...CONFINING ALL SURFACE FEATURES
WELL INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE BOTTOM LINE...INTERESTS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SHOULD ANTICIPATE AND PREPARE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
EXCESSIVE HEAT BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE
THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CB GROUP AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING...ENDING THE FLOODING AND
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORMS
SLIDE SOUTH...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

WISE

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK STALLED
FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AS IT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THEREFORE SOME QUESTION TO
HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINED AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE
TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

EXTENT OF HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH H5 HEIGHTS TO
BUILD...THOUGH BELIEVE FORECAST TO HINGE ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ACTIVE JET MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND THE
TIMING ON WHEN A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE OZARKS.

GFS/ECM BOTH BUILD 594+ DM HEIGHTS NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DESCEND INTO THE HEAT RIDGE IMPACTING CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG TO
THE MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER.

WHILE WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS MOISTURE CONVERGES LEADING TO
AT LEAST ENHANCED CUMULUS IF NOT SCT TSRA...ANTICIPATE WEAKENING
FRONT TO DESCEND THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY DROPPING
HEAT INDICES FINALLY OUT OF THE 100S.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY DRIVE DEW POINTS UPWARD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS
WILL FOLLOW FOUR IF NOT FIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 100
AND POSSIBLY OF OVER 105 DEGREES...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE ON TOP OF
THE CUMULATIVE PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAT MAY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS
HEALTH RISK ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DOESNT
FORM.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE
THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CB GROUP AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Friday, July 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310220
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
920 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 917 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND PUSHED
OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING...ENDING THE FLOODING AND
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING AND STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORMS
SLIDE SOUTH...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

WISE

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK STALLED
FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AS IT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THEREFORE SOME QUESTION TO
HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINED AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE
TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

EXTENT OF HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH H5 HEIGHTS TO
BUILD...THOUGH BELIEVE FORECAST TO HINGE ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ACTIVE JET MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND THE
TIMING ON WHEN A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE OZARKS.

GFS/ECM BOTH BUILD 594+ DM HEIGHTS NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DESCEND INTO THE HEAT RIDGE IMPACTING CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG TO
THE MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER.

WHILE WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS MOISTURE CONVERGES LEADING TO
AT LEAST ENHANCED CUMULUS IF NOT SCT TSRA...ANTICIPATE WEAKENING
FRONT TO DESCEND THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY DROPPING
HEAT INDICES FINALLY OUT OF THE 100S.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY DRIVE DEW POINTS UPWARD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS
WILL FOLLOW FOUR IF NOT FIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 100
AND POSSIBLY OF OVER 105 DEGREES...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE ON TOP OF
THE CUMULATIVE PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAT MAY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS
HEALTH RISK ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DOESNT
FORM.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THINK THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302359
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

A LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN OF NORTH
EAST OF THE AREA...WHERE BETTER WIND SHEAR AND SHEAR COLD POOL
BALANCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SHEAR COLD POOL BALANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA IS MORE FAVORABLE TOWARDS THE COLD POOL...AND THIS IS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS OUTRUNNING THE
CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY DECREASING
AS THE STORMS ARE BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY IS
WEAKER. THERE COULD STILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO 30 MPH OR SO...BUT THE SEVERE RISK IS DECREASING SO WE WILL
LIKELY LET THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH GO EARLY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THOUGH MID EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH. HOWEVER...THINK IT WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS DUE TO
THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING AND A STRONG CAP THAT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT
REMAINS OF THOSE STORMS AS THEY PUSH INTO THE AREA. HAVE UPDATED
POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY LET THE HEAT ADVISORY GO EARLY TOO.

WISE

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK STALLED
FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AS IT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THEREFORE SOME QUESTION TO
HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINED AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE
TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

EXTENT OF HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH H5 HEIGHTS TO
BUILD...THOUGH BELIEVE FORECAST TO HINGE ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ACTIVE JET MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND THE
TIMING ON WHEN A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE OZARKS.

GFS/ECM BOTH BUILD 594+ DM HEIGHTS NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DESCEND INTO THE HEAT RIDGE IMPACTING CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG TO
THE MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER.

WHILE WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS MOISTURE CONVERGES LEADING TO
AT LEAST ENHANCED CUMULUS IF NOT SCT TSRA...ANTICIPATE WEAKENING
FRONT TO DESCEND THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY DROPPING
HEAT INDICES FINALLY OUT OF THE 100S.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY DRIVE DEW POINTS UPWARD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS
WILL FOLLOW FOUR IF NOT FIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 100
AND POSSIBLY OF OVER 105 DEGREES...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE ON TOP OF
THE CUMULATIVE PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAT MAY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS
HEALTH RISK ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DOESNT
FORM.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THINK THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY. SO HAVE LEFT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

WISE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302341
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ058-071-083-310045-
PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-DENT MO-
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...

AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLAND
TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRINKTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE ANUTT...
BANGERT...BRINKTOWN...DOOLITTLE...EDGAR SPRINGS...JEROME...LAKE
SPRING...LECOMA...NEWBURG...NORTHWYE...ROLLA...ROSATI...ST. JAMES...
VICHY AND VIENNA.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 199 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI.

$$

CCC/WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302204
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ055>057-302300-
MILLER MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...

A GUST FRONT WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM WINDSOR TO
VERSAILLES TO ST. ELIZABETH THROUGH 600 PM CDT.

THE GUST FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH.

IN ADDITION...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH JUST
BEHIND THE GUST FRONT. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS INCLUDING
FLORENCE...VERSAILLES...ELDON AND ST. ELIZABETH THROUGH 600 PM CDT.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

$$

CCC/WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK STALLED
FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AS IT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THEREFORE SOME QUESTION TO
HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINED AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE
TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

EXTENT OF HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH H5 HEIGHTS TO
BUILD...THOUGH BELIEVE FORECAST TO HINGE ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ACTIVE JET MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND THE
TIMING ON WHEN A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE OZARKS.

GFS/ECM BOTH BUILD 594+ DM HEIGHTS NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DESCEND INTO THE HEAT RIDGE IMPACTING CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG TO
THE MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER.

WHILE WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS MOISTURE CONVERGES LEADING TO
AT LEAST ENHANCED CUMULUS IF NOT SCT TSRA...ANTICIPATE WEAKENING
FRONT TO DESCEND THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY DROPPING
HEAT INDICES FINALLY OUT OF THE 100S.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY DRIVE DEW POINTS UPWARD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS
WILL FOLLOW FOUR IF NOT FIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 100
AND POSSIBLY OF OVER 105 DEGREES...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE ON TOP OF
THE CUMULATIVE PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAT MAY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS
HEALTH RISK ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DOESNT
FORM.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT SGF AND BBG. LIGHT MORNING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE
THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT.

STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS UNDER VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EASTERN OZARKS AND MAY
PROPAGATE AS FAR WEST AS SGF.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302005
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 110 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAD BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A WEAK STALLED
FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB CONVERGENCE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION WAS FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A MINOR MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN
AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AS IT COULD IMPACT CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THEREFORE SOME QUESTION TO
HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT. HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI, THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE LAKE
OF THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.

A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE REGION AND A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
MAINTAINED AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S
BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE
TO THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND THE SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

EXTENT OF HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. LONG
RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH H5 HEIGHTS TO
BUILD...THOUGH BELIEVE FORECAST TO HINGE ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ACTIVE JET MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AND THE
TIMING ON WHEN A SURFACE FRONT REACHES THE OZARKS.

GFS/ECM BOTH BUILD 594+ DM HEIGHTS NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST NRN MO
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL DESCEND INTO THE HEAT RIDGE IMPACTING CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG TO
THE MAINTAIN THE SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER.

WHILE WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME RELIEF AS MOISTURE CONVERGES LEADING TO
AT LEAST ENHANCED CUMULUS IF NOT SCT TSRA...ANTICIPATE WEAKENING
FRONT TO DESCEND THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY DROPPING
HEAT INDICES FINALLY OUT OF THE 100S.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY DRIVE DEW POINTS UPWARD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS THIS
WILL FOLLOW FOUR IF NOT FIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDICES OF AT LEAST 100
AND POSSIBLY OF OVER 105 DEGREES...THIS MOISTURE INCREASE ON TOP OF
THE CUMULATIVE PERIOD OF SUSTAINED HEAT MAY MAKE FOR A DANGEROUS
HEALTH RISK ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION DOESNT
FORM.

RUNNELS

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT SGF AND BBG. LIGHT MORNING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE
THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT.

STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS UNDER VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EASTERN OZARKS AND MAY
PROPAGATE AS FAR WEST AS SGF.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301808
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ056>058-070-071-082-083-097-098-106-301915-
MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-HOWELL-SHANNON-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...
VIENNA...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...HOUSTON...
CABOOL...SALEM...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...THAYER...ALTON
106 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM VIENNA TO
SALEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 25 MPH THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF MARIES...PHELPS AND DENT COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM.
HEAVY BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS MAY IMPACT DRIVING CONDITIONS BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63 DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

$$
RUNNELS


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301652
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

CUMULUS FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AT MIDDAY. CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BEEN
FOCUSED FROM NORTHERN INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND NORTH
OF A WEAK STALLED FRONT WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODEST 850 MB
CONVERGENCE. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MINOR MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITHIN AXIS OF
BEST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE APPROACH OF THE
MINOR SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO ADD SOME SUPPORT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BUT RULED OUT.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE A BIT LOWER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY TOP 100 IN THIS AREA AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AS ML CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT SGF AND BBG. LIGHT MORNING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE
THE VERY HIGH LEVELS OF SURFACE MOISTURE PRESENT.

STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS UNDER VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI LATER TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EASTERN OZARKS AND MAY
PROPAGATE AS FAR WEST AS SGF.

COLUCCI/FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-088-093-
101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

A PERSISTENT SMALL CLUSTER THAT FORMED IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST OF STRONGER 850MB WINDS/FLOW HAS CONSOLIDATED A BIT OVER THE
PAST HOUR. SOME DECENT BASIN AVERAGED RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
OVER MORGAN COUNTY...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOVING EAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY NOW.

OTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
CWFA...AGAIN...IN A NW-SE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF
VEERING AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/JET. 12Z KSGF RAOB
(IN PROGRESS) HAS 17 DEG C DEW POINT AT 850MB...LOTS OF MOISTURE.
CURRENT POP GRIDS LOOK OKAY AND DO NOT PLAN ON ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES ATTM. DSA

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/

IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE
AIR MASS IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AS ML CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010/
FOR THE 30/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...THE TAFS WILL BE GENERALLY
VFR...BUT LIKE YESTERDAY...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE KSGF/KBBG AREAS AND POINTS EAST.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CB/VCTS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301052
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ055>058-069-301300-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO VIENNA. THE RAIN
WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM FLORENCE AND VERSAILLES EAST TO
ELDON AND OLEAN. RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

$$

MOZ070-071-082-083-097-098-106-301300-
PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-HOWELL-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...THAYER...ALTON
552 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE ROLLA AND FORT LEONARD WOOD AREA SOUTH TO WEST
PLAINS AND ALTON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300917
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

MOZ055>057-067-301100-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA
417 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 6 AM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LOWRY CITY TO ELDON.
THE RAIN WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED FROM LINCOLN AND COLE CAMP EAST
TO FLORENCE AND VERSAILLES WHERE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300732
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 AM CDT FRI JUL 30 2010

..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71...

DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA TO TABLE ROCK LAKE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR RECEIVING RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS
IN PLACE. A DOWNBURST OR TWO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS ML
CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG BY 21Z.

MOST LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL
REMAIN DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE IN THIS
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHTS PERIOD...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY TRACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI. AREAS AROUND THE
LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...ON DOWN THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR COULD
RECEIVE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AN ORGANIZED EPISODE OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS...HOWEVER...AREAS OF NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA COULD RECEIVE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED SOMEWHERE WITHIN OR NEAR
THE OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO EXIST...PROVIDING POSSIBLE TRIGGERS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE
SUMMERTIME HIGH BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS THE OZARKS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WITH PROBABILITIES OF A THUNDERSTORM AT OR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...WILL NOT CARRY CB MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAY
ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
FOG. KEPT ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH IN A SIMILAR REGIME THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTS ONLY A PREVAILING CB
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300457
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1157 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD STALLED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL IMPACT THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 105. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 WILL
BE COMMON AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE COMING DAYS.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. WITH PROBABILITIES OF A THUNDERSTORM AT OR
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...WILL NOT CARRY CB MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAY
ALSO SEE SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT
FOG. KEPT ALL TAF SITES IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW AS VISIBILITIES
HAVE NOT DROPPED ALL THAT MUCH IN A SIMILAR REGIME THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
STARTING LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT WARRANTS ONLY A PREVAILING CB
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300100
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

MOZ090>096-101>105-300200-
GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...
ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...
MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...
FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
800 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REMAINING STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN A LINE FROM AURORA TO ROGERSVILLE AND HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVER THE NEXT HOUR THESE STORMS
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN...BUT LOCATIONS INCLUDING
NIXA AND OZARK WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THESE STORMS
MOVE OVERHEAD. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THESE URBAN AREAS. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 300100
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

MOZ090>096-101>105-300200-
GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...
ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...
MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...
FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
800 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE REMAINING STORMS ARE
LOCATED IN A LINE FROM AURORA TO ROGERSVILLE AND HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVER THE NEXT HOUR THESE STORMS
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN...BUT LOCATIONS INCLUDING
NIXA AND OZARK WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THESE STORMS
MOVE OVERHEAD. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR THESE URBAN AREAS. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292338
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD STALLED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL IMPACT THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 105. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 WILL
BE COMMON AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE COMING DAYS.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 638 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

FOR THE 00Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE TAF SITES CREATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OVERNIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066-077-088-
093-101.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 292300
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
600 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE REMAINING
IN A LINE FROM EMINENCE TO FORT LEONARD WOOD TO OSAGE BEACH. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO
AND ONE HALF INCHES IN AN HOUR. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH WILL ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 292300
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
600 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE REMAINING
IN A LINE FROM EMINENCE TO FORT LEONARD WOOD TO OSAGE BEACH. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RATES UP TO TWO
AND ONE HALF INCHES IN AN HOUR. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH WILL ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 292059
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
359 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE
INCH IN AN HOUR. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE NOTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 292059
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
359 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE
STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE
INCH IN AN HOUR. IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS...LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DAMAGING
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE NOTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

$$
CCC


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 291949
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
249 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE A QUICK
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS AND EVEN SOME AMOUNTS THAT GO OVER AN
INCH.

WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
WILL ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

$$
RUNNELS


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291949
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
249 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE A QUICK
QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS AND EVEN SOME AMOUNTS THAT GO OVER AN
INCH.

WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH
WILL ALSO BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY THAT MAY AFFECT TRAVEL SAFETY.

$$
RUNNELS


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291938
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010/

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAD STALLED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND OSAGE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY
OUTSIDE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME POSITIONED TO OUR WEST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WEAK IMPULSES
RIDE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL IMPACT THE OSAGE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 105. THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED IF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
HOTTER TEMPERATURES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 WILL
BE COMMON AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED
IN THE COMING DAYS.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCT RA/TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE JUST INDICATED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
UNFOCUSED IN NATURE. SHOULD TSRA MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME INDICATION
RIGHT NOW THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX COULD FORM OVER
NEBRASKA/IOWA AND DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF TSRA
OVERNIGHT ATTM. OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE OVERNIGHT COULD BE MVFR
HZ/BR...ESPECIALLY AT ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES PRECIPITATION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT TO LATER SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE THIS
POSSIBILITY.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
CASSVILLE LINE.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291829
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
129 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
230 PM WILL BE SCATTERED WITHIN A BAND EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO
MARSHFIELD TO ALTON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NOTED BY THE AREAS
WITNESSING THE SHOWERS. 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.

$$
RUNNELS


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 291829
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
129 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
230 PM WILL BE SCATTERED WITHIN A BAND EXTENDING FROM NEVADA TO
MARSHFIELD TO ALTON. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.

BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NOTED BY THE AREAS
WITNESSING THE SHOWERS. 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE SUDDEN HEAVY RAIN AND A
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.

$$
RUNNELS


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291714
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

UPDATE...

JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH MAIN FOCUS REMAINING ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
KANSAS CITY TO COLUMBIA TO ST. LOUIS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...ONLY
REFLECTION OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN IN AN ACCAS FIELD IN ITS
VICINITY. RUC/SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ATMOSPHERE IS
BECOMING A BIT MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODIFICATION
OF THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING CONFIRMING THAT MLCIN SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. AS
SUCH...AM STILL ANTICIPATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
FORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW 10 KTS PER 12Z RAOB...BUT SHORT TERM RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT WE COULD SEE A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR...INTO THE 15-20 KT
RAGE...THIS AFTERNOON AS SLIGHTLY FASTER MID AND UPPER FLOW FLOW
IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTATIONS ARE STILL
QUITE LOW...WITH 2 INCH PWATS STILL SUGGESTING THAT HEAVY RAIN AND
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST PLAYER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHER MINOR CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO INSERT SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI WHERE A FEW VERY SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE MANAGED TO
GET GOING. WHILE WELL AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO
BE PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

BOXELL

&&

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE RETURNING HEAT
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE I70 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME WANING CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR
COLUMBIA TO NEAR LEXINGTON. NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IS FAIRLY WEAK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

FORECAST...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA TODAY...SETTING UP NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AND COULD SEE SOME PULSE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT. SEVERE
STORMS NOT EXPECTED EITHER WITH WEAK SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE
CWA. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AGAIN DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH READINGS AROUND 90 TO 93 ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AND THERMAL CAP
INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY AND PUSHING INTO
THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
AT FORECASTED HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 107 HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND MAY BE NEEDING SOME HEAT HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SCT RA/TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE JUST INDICATED VCTS AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
UNFOCUSED IN NATURE. SHOULD TSRA MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME INDICATION
RIGHT NOW THAT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX COULD FORM OVER
NEBRASKA/IOWA AND DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF TSRA
OVERNIGHT ATTM. OTHER POSSIBLE ISSUE OVERNIGHT COULD BE MVFR
HZ/BR...ESPECIALLY AT ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES PRECIPITATION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IT TO LATER SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE THIS
POSSIBILITY.

BOXELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291633
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EASTERN KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

BOXELL

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com