Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S WERE THE RULE AT EARLY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE HURRICANE ALEX MAKES
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS BY LATE WEEK. RISING 50H HEIGHTS AND
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL SUMMER LEVELS AS WE START JULY.

A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATE TO THE EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES COMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302313
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S WERE THE RULE AT EARLY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE HURRICANE ALEX MAKES
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS BY LATE WEEK. RISING 50H HEIGHTS AND
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL SUMMER LEVELS AS WE START JULY.

A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATE TO THE EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES COMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301900
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 155 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S WERE THE RULE AT EARLY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE HURRICANE ALEX MAKES
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS BY LATE WEEK. RISING 50H HEIGHTS AND
WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL SUMMER LEVELS AS WE START JULY.

A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATE TO THE EAST. DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED BY THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES COMING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD DECK TO FORM ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT WILL NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FROM 04Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301726
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

HIGHLIGHTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME...DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/TSTMS...MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DRY ENE SFC FLOW OVER THE REGION. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP
SOMEWHAT OVER MOS GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO DUE TO THE DRIER
THAN NORMAL SOILS AND PLANT MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.

OVERALL THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFS (30/00Z) AND ECMWF (29/12Z). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN BECOMING ESTABLISHED INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE OZARKS REGION. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCES WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON AS A PROGGED FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
DSA

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING HAS CAUSED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD DECK TO FORM ACROSS THE OZARKS BUT WILL NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR FROM 04Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301147
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
647 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

HIGHLIGHTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME...DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/TSTMS...MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DRY ENE SFC FLOW OVER THE REGION. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP
SOMEWHAT OVER MOS GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO DUE TO THE DRIER
THAN NORMAL SOILS AND PLANT MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.

OVERALL THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFS (30/00Z) AND ECMWF (29/12Z). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN BECOMING ESTABLISHED INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE OZARKS REGION. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCES WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON AS A PROGGED FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONS
WEATHER. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z BUT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300702
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 201 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/

HIGHLIGHTS TO THE FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME...DRY AND COMFORTABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN/TSTMS...MAINLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A
DRY ENE SFC FLOW OVER THE REGION. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE BUMPED UP
SOMEWHAT OVER MOS GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO DUE TO THE DRIER
THAN NORMAL SOILS AND PLANT MOISTURE IN THAT AREA.

OVERALL THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFS (30/00Z) AND ECMWF (29/12Z). THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN BECOMING ESTABLISHED INTO THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE OZARKS REGION. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLD/WDLY
SCT CONVECTION AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY...BETTER CHANCES WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON AS A PROGGED FAIRLY
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
DSA

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE OZARKS.
THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL ADVECT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S PERHAPS INTO THE 50S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
MAY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FEED BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292307
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE OZARKS.
THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL ADVECT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S PERHAPS INTO THE 50S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
MAY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FEED BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291922
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010/

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE OZARKS.
THE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL ADVECT A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE COOLER
CONDITIONS MORE NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S PERHAPS INTO THE 50S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

A RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX
MAY ENHANCE THE MOISTURE FEED BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS POINT.

FOSTER

&&

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 8KT AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291743
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLIGHTS: QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/TSTMS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS SOME SUBTROPICAL BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MO RIVER VLY BROUGHT LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ATTM BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.
THE DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT DRYER THAN NORMAL GROUND
AND PLANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW A LARGER
SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE THAN DEPICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT
THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...BUT A GENERAL NORTHEAST THEN EAST SFC FETCH WILL KEEP
A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI/EARLY SAT. AS THE UPPER
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE. RETAINED SOME SMALL/SLIGHT POPS FOR
SAT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND/OR
MON AS WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LATITUDE DIPS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...OR AT THE VERY LEAST LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE TO 8KT AND SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291125
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLIGHTS: QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/TSTMS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS SOME SUBTROPICAL BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MO RIVER VLY BROUGHT LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ATTM BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.
THE DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT DRYER THAN NORMAL GROUND
AND PLANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW A LARGER
SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE THAN DEPICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT
THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...BUT A GENERAL NORTHEAST THEN EAST SFC FETCH WILL KEEP
A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI/EARLY SAT. AS THE UPPER
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE. RETAINED SOME SMALL/SLIGHT POPS FOR
SAT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND/OR
MON AS WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LATITUDE DIPS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...OR AT THE VERY LEAST LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE. DSA

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290653
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLIGHTS: QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/TSTMS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS SOME SUBTROPICAL BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MO RIVER VLY BROUGHT LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ATTM BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.
THE DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT DRYER THAN NORMAL GROUND
AND PLANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW A LARGER
SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE THAN DEPICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT
THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...BUT A GENERAL NORTHEAST THEN EAST SFC FETCH WILL KEEP
A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI/EARLY SAT. AS THE UPPER
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE. RETAINED SOME SMALL/SLIGHT POPS FOR
SAT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND/OR
MON AS WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LATITUDE DIPS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...OR AT THE VERY LEAST LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE. DSA

&&

AVIATION...
/1142 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290638
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

DISCUSSION...
HIGHLIGHTS: QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/TSTMS IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS SOME SUBTROPICAL BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE REGION.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MO RIVER VLY BROUGHT LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH ATTM BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART.
THE DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH SOMEWHAT DRYER THAN NORMAL GROUND
AND PLANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY ALLOW A LARGER
SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE THAN DEPICTED BY MOS GUIDANCE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAVE BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT
THERE.

THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
WITH TIME...BUT A GENERAL NORTHEAST THEN EAST SFC FETCH WILL KEEP
A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH FRI/EARLY SAT. AS THE UPPER
HIGH/RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE. RETAINED SOME SMALL/SLIGHT POPS FOR
SAT...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND/OR
MON AS WE SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LATITUDE DIPS IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW...OR AT THE VERY LEAST LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES
INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE. DSA

&&

AVIATION...
/1142 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Monday, June 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290442
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MIND...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
RANGE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST
WIND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282307 CCA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MIND...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
RANGE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282301
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MIND...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
RANGE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH NO LOW OR MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.

KARDELL

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281915
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

NOTHING IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT REMAINING IN CONTROL
ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS STRONG RIDGING TAKES HOLD ALOFT. THIS RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN MIND...POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. COOL DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN A MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
RANGE THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...

LONG TERM FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...A BROAD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE HURRICANE ALEX MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MEXICO OR FAR SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE AND DRY
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BEFORE MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ALEX.

THUS FAR...MODELS SEEM TO BE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THIS
MORNINGS 12Z GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS KEEPING THE
CIRCULATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND HWRF...ALL PREVIOUS GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE RUNS TAKING IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...AND AT THIS POINT...ITS DIFFICULT TO HANG MY HAT ON EITHER
ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. REALITY OF THE
SITUATION IS THAT THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING
SITUATION...IF ALEX MAINTAINS THE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE WE WILL
LIKELY STAY DRY. CONVERSELY...IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK ENDS UP
BEING FAVORED...THEN A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 OR
SO HOURS...AND ALONG WITH IT A FIRMER HANDLE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WEATHER.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH OF THE AERODROMES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR NORTH TEXAS WILL STREAM OVER THE OZARKS.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281709
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION LINGERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINED DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
GRADUALLY SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE PRIMARY BAND
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR
THIS REASON...A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP TODAY. THERE COULD BE
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...BUT
EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL END IN ALL LOCATIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE...AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A NIGHTLY
BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REINFORCE DRY AIR ADVECTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A PATTERN THAT IS
HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING FORWARD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. MOST OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST LINE LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT OFFERS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION BY SUGGESTING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS ALEX'S REMNANTS
STRAIGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE OF MISSOURI...PROVIDING THE REGION
WITH SOME DECENT AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

IT'S IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT CARRIES ALEX'S REMNANTS INTO MISSOURI. MOST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONFINES ALEX'S REMNANTS DEEPER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND
TEXAS. THEREFORE WE WILL NOT FORECAST HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL WE ACQUIRE A BETTER FEEL FOR ALEX'S TRACK.

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SOUTH OF THE AERODROMES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL STRATUS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR NORTH TEXAS WILL STREAM OVER THE OZARKS.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281049
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION LINGERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINED DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
GRADUALLY SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE PRIMARY BAND
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR
THIS REASON...A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP TODAY. THERE COULD BE
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...BUT
EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL END IN ALL LOCATIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE...AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A NIGHTLY
BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REINFORCE DRY AIR ADVECTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A PATTERN THAT IS
HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING FORWARD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. MOST OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST LINE LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT OFFERS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION BY SUGGESTING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS ALEX'S REMNANTS
STRAIGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE OF MISSOURI...PROVIDING THE REGION
WITH SOME DECENT AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

IT'S IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT CARRIES ALEX'S REMNANTS INTO MISSOURI. MOST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONFINES ALEX'S REMNANTS DEEPER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND
TEXAS. THEREFORE WE WILL NOT FORECAST HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL WE ACQUIRE A BETTER FEEL FOR ALEX'S TRACK.

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 545 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/

FOR THE 28/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS/ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD OVER SW MO...BUT IN GENERAL ONLY THE HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BEYOND 28/15Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGING A DRY AIR MASS WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280716
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION LINGERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINED DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS
GRADUALLY SAGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WITH THE PRIMARY BAND
OF CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. FOR
THIS REASON...A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST IS ON TAP TODAY. THERE COULD BE
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER...BUT
EVENTUALLY RAIN WILL END IN ALL LOCATIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AIRMASS WILL FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE...AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO WARM INTO THE 80S...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON A NIGHTLY
BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL
REINFORCE DRY AIR ADVECTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A PATTERN THAT IS
HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING FORWARD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. MOST OF THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN COAST LINE LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT OFFERS AN INTERESTING SOLUTION BY SUGGESTING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS ALEX'S REMNANTS
STRAIGHT NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE OF MISSOURI...PROVIDING THE REGION
WITH SOME DECENT AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

IT'S IMPORTANT FOR EVERYONE TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT CARRIES ALEX'S REMNANTS INTO MISSOURI. MOST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS CONFINES ALEX'S REMNANTS DEEPER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND
TEXAS. THEREFORE WE WILL NOT FORECAST HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL WE ACQUIRE A BETTER FEEL FOR ALEX'S TRACK.

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND KBBG DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR TWO COULD
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
DID NOT MENTION THIS IN TAFS GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 280705
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

MOZ082-083-097-098-106-280815-
TEXAS-DENT-HOWELL-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...THAYER...ALTON
205 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 315 AM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM FROM NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
WILLOW SPRINGS EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
SUMMERSVILLE...EMINENCE...ROUND SPRING...AND MIDRIDGE AREAS.
OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG
THE ARKANSAS BORDER FROM THE KOSHKONONG AREA EAST TO
ALTON...MYRTLE...AND WILDERNESS. OCCASIONAL LIGHTING AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280449
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

ALL THAT IS LEFT FROM THE EARLIER LINE OF STORMS IS THE TRAILING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS STILL
LOCATED FROM AROUND VERSAILLES TO PITTSBURG KANSAS. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MAIN FORCING
CLEARS. PUBLIC FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
UPDATED SHORTLY TO REMOVE REST OF SEVERE MENTION.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NEAR TERM...COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A SFC WIND SHIFT...IS JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
EAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
DEFINITELY WARM AND MOIST. MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WITH
NO CAP. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY PLOT FROM RECENT RUC
INITIALIZATIONS INDICATES THAT A WEAK WAVE IS MAKING PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO E KS. AS THIS FEATURE OVERTAKES THE SFC FRONT IN THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL SIDE
WITH MULTICELLULAR. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH GIVEN ONLY BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ON THE ORDER OF FEW/FAR
BETWEEN. OVERALL EXPECT STORMS CAPABLE OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE EXIT OF WHAT WILL BE A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT AND GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE. WEAK
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO N ARK BY THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LEND TO COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL LEVEL OUT TUESDAY WITH QUIET...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A
MOST WELCOME CHANGE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER WARM JUNE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. DRY
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY...
THOUGH NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF TD ALEX...CURRENTLY OVER THE
YUCATAN. OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE HAS THIS STORM SLOWLY MOVING WNW
DURING THE WEEK...TURNING TO THE WEST INTO OLD MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH IT WILL MOVE. THERE ARE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THERE THAT TAKE THIS FEATURE DUE NORTH INTO
THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY (GFS AND GEM)...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS
FEATURE CONFINED TO OLD MEXICO. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT BEHAVES...IN PARTICULAR ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH. AM
NOT RULING OUT ANY SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. KEEP A WARY EYE ON
ALEX AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AROUND KBBG DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT THAT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR TWO COULD
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
DID NOT MENTION THIS IN TAFS GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NORTHERLY FOR MONDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280309
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1009 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

ALL THAT IS LEFT FROM THE EARLIER LINE OF STORMS IS THE TRAILING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS STILL
LOCATED FROM AROUND VERSAILLES TO PITTSBURG KANSAS. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MAIN FORCING
CLEARS. PUBLIC FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
UPDATED SHORTLY TO REMOVE REST OF SEVERE MENTION.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NEAR TERM...COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A SFC WIND SHIFT...IS JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
EAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
DEFINITELY WARM AND MOIST. MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WITH
NO CAP. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY PLOT FROM RECENT RUC
INITIALIZATIONS INDICATES THAT A WEAK WAVE IS MAKING PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO E KS. AS THIS FEATURE OVERTAKES THE SFC FRONT IN THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL SIDE
WITH MULTICELLULAR. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH GIVEN ONLY BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ON THE ORDER OF FEW/FAR
BETWEEN. OVERALL EXPECT STORMS CAPABLE OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE EXIT OF WHAT WILL BE A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT AND GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE. WEAK
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO N ARK BY THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LEND TO COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL LEVEL OUT TUESDAY WITH QUIET...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A
MOST WELCOME CHANGE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER WARM JUNE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. DRY
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY...
THOUGH NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF TD ALEX...CURRENTLY OVER THE
YUCATAN. OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE HAS THIS STORM SLOWLY MOVING WNW
DURING THE WEEK...TURNING TO THE WEST INTO OLD MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH IT WILL MOVE. THERE ARE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THERE THAT TAKE THIS FEATURE DUE NORTH INTO
THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY (GFS AND GEM)...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS
FEATURE CONFINED TO OLD MEXICO. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT BEHAVES...IN PARTICULAR ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH. AM
NOT RULING OUT ANY SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. KEEP A WARY EYE ON
ALEX AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KBBG EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE
STORMS PUSH THROUGH. THE STORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT KJLN AND
KSGF...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CB MENTION EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL NOTED WELL BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 280152
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOZ097-098-105-106-280300-
HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
852 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 10 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM
WEST PLAINS TO EMINENCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 30 MILES
PER HOUR. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MILES
PER HOUR...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

$$
KARDELL


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 280154
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOC009-065-067-091-119-125-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-280300-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.A.0425.000000T0000Z-100628T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
425 TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 14 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY DOUGLAS MCDONALD
OZARK STONE TANEY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTON...ANDERSON...AVA...BRANSON...
CABOOL...CASSVILLE...EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
GAINESVILLE...GALENA...HOUSTON...KIMBERLING CITY...MONETT...
PINEVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...THAYER...THEODOSIA...VIENNA...
WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 280035
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010


MOC009-065-067-091-119-125-149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-280200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.A.0425.000000T0000Z-100628T0200Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY DOUGLAS MCDONALD
OZARK STONE TANEY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTON...ANDERSON...AVA...BRANSON...
CABOOL...CASSVILLE...EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
GAINESVILLE...GALENA...HOUSTON...KIMBERLING CITY...MONETT...
PINEVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...THAYER...THEODOSIA...VIENNA...
WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Cancellation

WWUS63 KSGF 280035
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
735 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOC029-043-059-077-105-109-131-141-145-225-229-280145-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.A.0425.000000T0000Z-100628T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 425 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS CANCELS 11 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

CAMDEN MILLER MORGAN

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

CHRISTIAN DALLAS GREENE
LACLEDE LAWRENCE NEWTON
WEBSTER WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AURORA...BUFFALO...CAMDENTON...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...
OZARK...REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND VERSAILLES.

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 280000
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT REMAINS BACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW INTO AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP
STORMS GOING. INSTABILITY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI IS A BIT
WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLIER ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...SO EXPECT
SLOW DECREASING TREND TO CONTINUE. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN
THREAT...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SUB SEVERE
HAIL.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NEAR TERM...COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A SFC WIND SHIFT...IS JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
EAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
DEFINITELY WARM AND MOIST. MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WITH
NO CAP. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY PLOT FROM RECENT RUC
INITIALIZATIONS INDICATES THAT A WEAK WAVE IS MAKING PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO E KS. AS THIS FEATURE OVERTAKES THE SFC FRONT IN THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL SIDE
WITH MULTICELLULAR. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH GIVEN ONLY BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ON THE ORDER OF FEW/FAR
BETWEEN. OVERALL EXPECT STORMS CAPABLE OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE EXIT OF WHAT WILL BE A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT AND GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE. WEAK
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO N ARK BY THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LEND TO COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL LEVEL OUT TUESDAY WITH QUIET...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A
MOST WELCOME CHANGE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER WARM JUNE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. DRY
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY...
THOUGH NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF TD ALEX...CURRENTLY OVER THE
YUCATAN. OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE HAS THIS STORM SLOWLY MOVING WNW
DURING THE WEEK...TURNING TO THE WEST INTO OLD MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH IT WILL MOVE. THERE ARE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THERE THAT TAKE THIS FEATURE DUE NORTH INTO
THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY (GFS AND GEM)...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS
FEATURE CONFINED TO OLD MEXICO. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT BEHAVES...IN PARTICULAR ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH. AM
NOT RULING OUT ANY SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. KEEP A WARY EYE ON
ALEX AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT KBBG EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THE
STORMS PUSH THROUGH. THE STORMS HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED AT KJLN AND
KSGF...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A CB MENTION EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE STILL NOTED WELL BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATER THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 272352
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>098-101>106-280200-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...
AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 9 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES
THE TABLE ROCK LAKE AND BULL SHOALS LAKE REGION. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAINFALL RATES
EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI UNTIL 9 PM.

$$

SCHAUMANN


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 272352
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>098-101>106-280200-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-POLK-
DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...
AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
652 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 9 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS INCLUDES
THE TABLE ROCK LAKE AND BULL SHOALS LAKE REGION. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAINFALL RATES
EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. MOVEMENT OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE TO THE EAST AROUND 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI UNTIL 9 PM.

$$

SCHAUMANN

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 272332
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010


MOC009-029-043-059-065-067-077-091-105-109-119-125-131-141-145-
149-153-161-169-203-209-213-215-225-229-280200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.A.0425.000000T0000Z-100628T0200Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

CAMDEN MARIES MILLER
MORGAN PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK STONE TANEY
WEBSTER WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTON...ANDERSON...AURORA...AVA...
BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...CAMDENTON...CASSVILLE...ELDON...
EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...GALENA...
HOUSTON...KIMBERLING CITY...LAKE OZARK...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...
NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...
ROLLA...SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...THAYER...THEODOSIA...VERSAILLES...
VIENNA...WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Cancellation

WWUS63 KSGF 272332
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOC011-015-039-057-085-097-167-185-280045-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.A.0425.000000T0000Z-100628T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 425 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS CANCELS 8 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON HICKORY ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARTON CEDAR DADE
JASPER POLK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...APPLETON CITY...BOLIVAR...
CARTHAGE...COLE CAMP...EL DORADO SPRINGS...GREENFIELD...
HERMITAGE...JOPLIN...LAMAR...OSCEOLA...STOCKTON AND WARSAW.

$$


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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 272208
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 425
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105-
109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215-
225-229-280200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.A.0425.100627T2208Z-100628T0200Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 33 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

BENTON CAMDEN HICKORY
MARIES MILLER MORGAN
PHELPS PULASKI ST. CLAIR

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT HOWELL OREGON
SHANNON TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY BARTON CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
NEWTON OZARK POLK
STONE TANEY WEBSTER
WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTON...ANDERSON...APPLETON CITY...
AURORA...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...CAMDENTON...
CARTHAGE...CASSVILLE...COLE CAMP...EL DORADO SPRINGS...ELDON...
EMINENCE...FORSYTH...FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...GALENA...
GREENFIELD...HERMITAGE...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...KIMBERLING CITY...
LAKE OZARK...LAMAR...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...NIXA...OSAGE BEACH...
OSCEOLA...OZARK...PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...ROLLA...
SALEM...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON...THAYER...THEODOSIA...
VERSAILLES...VIENNA...WARSAW...WAYNESVILLE...WEST PLAINS...
WILLOW SPRINGS AND WINONA.

$$


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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 272208
SVRSGF
MOC009-109-145-272300-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0135.100627T2208Z-100627T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
508 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWTONIA...OR 12 MILES EAST OF NEOSHO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE NEWTONIA...AURORA...FAIRVIEW...MARIONVILLE...
MILLER...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...PIERCE CITY...PURDY...VERONA AND
WHEATON.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 54 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

THIS REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR NEWTON...LAWRENCE AND BARRY COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9436 3694 9424 3705 9408 3705 9407
3713 9400 3723 9388 3728 9376 3707 9362
3689 9363 3676 9406 3675 9427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 252DEG 20KT 3689 9413
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

ANGLE

WWWW

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 272201
SVRSGF
MOC057-077-109-167-272245-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0134.100627T2201Z-100627T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF HALLTOWN...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF REPUBLIC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ASH GROVE...FAIR GROVE...NORTHERN
SPRINGFIELD...STRAFFORD AND WILLARD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 53 AND 90 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 9369 3732 9377 3749 9318 3742 9319
3741 9308 3724 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 250DEG 27KT 3726 9359
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

ANGLE

WWWW

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 272145
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103-
280015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 7 PM...THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF PENNIES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAINFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

$$

SCHAUMANN


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 272145
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>070-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>103-
280015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-
BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...
CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THROUGH 7 PM...THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF PENNIES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAINFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

$$

MOZ071-082-083-092-096>098-104>106-280015-
PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-
OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...
ALTON
445 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. THROUGH 7 PM...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT
LOCATIONS FROM GAINESVILLE INTO THE WILLOW SPRINGS AND WEST PLAINS
AREA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

SCHAUMANN

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 272130
SVRSGF
MOC097-109-145-272215-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0132.100627T2130Z-100627T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT.

* AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARCOXIE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE...FREISTATT...HALLTOWN...
HOBERG...LA RUSSELL...MILLER...MOUNT VERNON...PIERCE CITY...RED
OAK...RITCHEY...SARCOXIE...STOTTS CITY AND WENTWORTH.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 58 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3698 9425 3729 9397 3728 9374 3727 9373
3728 9362 3710 9361 3703 9362 3693 9401
3693 9407 3691 9407 3689 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 232DEG 40KT 3706 9406
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

ANGLE

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 272034
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

MOZ095-096-104-105-272130-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR BRANSON...RIDGEDALE...BROWNBRANCH AND
GOODHOPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE AVA...FORSYTH
AND TANEYVILLE AND PORTIONS OF TABLE ROCK LAKE AND LAKE TANEYCOMO.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

TAKE SHELTER FROM THE STORM IN A STURDY BUILDING. BOATERS ON AREA
LAKES SHOULD RETURN TO SHORE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

$$

ANGLE

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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 272002
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NEAR TERM...COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A SFC WIND SHIFT...IS JUST NW
OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
EAST HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
DEFINITELY WARM AND MOIST. MLCAPE IS GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG WITH
NO CAP. WAT VAP IMAGERY AND 500MB VORTICITY PLOT FROM RECENT RUC
INITIALIZATIONS INDICATES THAT A WEAK WAVE IS MAKING PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO E KS. AS THIS FEATURE OVERTAKES THE SFC FRONT IN THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA.
WIND SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK...THUS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL SIDE
WITH MULTICELLULAR. SBCAPE AND MLCAPE ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG UPDRAFTS...THOUGH GIVEN ONLY BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ON THE ORDER OF FEW/FAR
BETWEEN. OVERALL EXPECT STORMS CAPABLE OF 45 MPH WIND GUSTS...
SMALL HAIL...FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE EXIT OF WHAT WILL BE A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT AND GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE. WEAK
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN MO
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO N ARK BY THE
AFTERNOON. LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL LEND TO COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. GRADUAL AIRMASS CHANGE
WILL LEVEL OUT TUESDAY WITH QUIET...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. A
MOST WELCOME CHANGE TO WHAT HAS BEEN A RATHER WARM JUNE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER REGIME. DRY
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND HUMIDITY...
THOUGH NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF TD ALEX...CURRENTLY OVER THE
YUCATAN. OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE HAS THIS STORM SLOWLY MOVING WNW
DURING THE WEEK...TURNING TO THE WEST INTO OLD MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS FEATURE AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH IT WILL MOVE. THERE ARE
MODEL SOLUTIONS OUT THERE THAT TAKE THIS FEATURE DUE NORTH INTO
THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY (GFS AND GEM)...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS
FEATURE CONFINED TO OLD MEXICO. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT BEHAVES...IN PARTICULAR ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH. AM
NOT RULING OUT ANY SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT. KEEP A WARY EYE ON
ALEX AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...VISIBILITIES
WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO IFR DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 271954
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-272200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 5 PM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL
TRACK EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO
NEAR A HALF INCH NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

MOZ066-067-077-078-088-093-272200-
VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...NEOSHO
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 5 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO NEAR A HALF INCH NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
ANGLE


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Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 271954
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010


MOZ066-067-077-078-088-093-272200-
VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-JASPER-NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...NEOSHO
254 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 5 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO NEAR A HALF INCH NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
ANGLE


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271755
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN KANSAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
OZARKS...ALL WAS QUIET AS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WERE BALMY IN
NATURE. EARLY MORNING READINGS STRUGGLED TO COOL OUT OF THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE.

EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS. I THINK THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN A WHILE...AS MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH THIS IN MIND...I DECIDED TO JACK POPS
UP...AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE GRIDS. HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VALUES OF PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS
NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. AN AIRMASS CONTAINING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WELCOMED INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LESS
HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING CONDITIONS MORE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AT
TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE
OBSERVED IN MOST OTHER AREAS ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE
AT BAY. TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
SHUT DOWN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE NATIONS
MID SECTION.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST
INTO THE OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...VISIBILITIES
WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO IFR DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 271359
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>095-101>103-271600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...
ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA
859 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 11 AM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA FROM JOPLIN TO BOLIVAR TO OSAGE BEACH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO NEAR A
HALF INCH NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ANGLE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 271359
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
859 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>095-101>103-271600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...
ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...
GALENA
859 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...

THROUGH 11 AM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA FROM JOPLIN TO BOLIVAR TO OSAGE BEACH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO NEAR A
HALF INCH NEAR THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$

ANGLE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 271247
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
747 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>057-066>069-077>079-088-089-094-271400-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON
747 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL OCCUR FROM THE GIRARD
AND PITTSBURG AREAS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST THE STOCKTON
LAKE AREA. OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE TRUMAN LAKE AREA EAST TO
VERSAILLES AND ELDON.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 271247
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
747 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>057-066>069-077>079-088-089-094-271400-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-
HICKORY-CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...
STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...AURORA...
MOUNT VERNON
747 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 9 AM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL OCCUR FROM THE GIRARD
AND PITTSBURG AREAS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEAST THE STOCKTON
LAKE AREA. OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM THE TRUMAN LAKE AREA EAST TO
VERSAILLES AND ELDON.

$$

DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 271154
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
WESTERN KANSAS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT.
THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
OZARKS...ALL WAS QUIET AS OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WERE BALMY IN
NATURE. EARLY MORNING READINGS STRUGGLED TO COOL OUT OF THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS ON TAP. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECASTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE LOWER...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE.

EVENTUALLY BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SAG ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS. I THINK THIS WILL BE OUR BEST SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN A WHILE...AS MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH THIS IN MIND...I DECIDED TO JACK POPS
UP...AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE GRIDS. HEAVY
RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VALUES OF PRE-EXISTING
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS
NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE. AN AIRMASS CONTAINING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE WELCOMED INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LESS
HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAKING CONDITIONS MORE IDEAL FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S AT
TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL BE
OBSERVED IN MOST OTHER AREAS ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

NO RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECASTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST SURFACE TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE
AT BAY. TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
SHUT DOWN ANY POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE NATIONS
MID SECTION.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010/

FOR THE 27/1200Z KSGF/KJLN/BBG TAFS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NW MO INTO EASTERN KS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LIKE YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH
ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION WILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER
TSTMS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. WHILE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT TSTMS WILL OCCUR...TIMING
AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH VCTS AND CB/CUMULONIMBUS DESIGNATORS. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION VEERING THE WIND TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AFTER 28/00Z. PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER POST FRONTAL MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES MOISTENED BY RAIN/TSTMS. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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