Monday, May 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010452
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1152 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LAGGING A BIT AS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ERODE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

WILL STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SHORT LIVED STORMS. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE STORMS...FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
STALLS TONIGHT AND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS HINT AS
SOME NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SO THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION.
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT SGF AND
BBG. MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTERNOON/EVENING CU ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY THE END OF THE TAF
CYCLE...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A CONCERN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 010205
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
905 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ097-098-106-010400-
HOWELL-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...
THAYER...ALTON
905 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
SHANNON...EASTERN HOWELL...AND OREGON COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM. THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. ANY
LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES THIS ACTIVITY CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. LOCATIONS LIKELY AFFECTED INCLUDE...BIRCH TREE...WHITE
CHURCH...GREER SPRING...THOMASVILLE...AND ALTON.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312337
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED
BY LIS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE AND SBCAPE AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000
J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH
STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A SEVERE RISK WITH THESE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND
INTERCEPT THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER THE MID
EVENING HOURS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

GAGAN

&&

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LAGGING A BIT AS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ERODE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

WILL STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SHORT LIVED STORMS. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE STORMS...FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
STALLS TONIGHT AND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS HINT AS
SOME NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SO THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION.
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF
LOCATIONS AS ANY TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...LIGHT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
TUESDAY. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT SGF AND BBG. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND INTO
OK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS THIS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. MUCH
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTERNOON/EVENING CU ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 312314
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ058-071-082-083-098-106-010200-
MARIES-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIENNA...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...
SALEM...WINONA...EMINENCE...THAYER...ALTON
614 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PHELPS COUNTY AND EASTERN DENT COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
MOST LOCATIONS OF PHELPS AND DENT COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER...AREAS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS CAN EXPECT
40 MPH WIND GUSTS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SECTIONS OF
EASTERN SHANNON COUNTY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 312120
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
420 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ057-058-070-071-081>083-092-096>098-105-106-010000-
MILLER-MARIES-PULASKI-PHELPS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-
HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LEBANON...HOUSTON...
CABOOL...SALEM...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
420 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES THIS ACTIVITY CAN
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AS THESE CELLS MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 312022
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
322 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ056>058-069>071-082-083-098-312130-
MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-SHANNON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...
VIENNA...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...WINONA...
EMINENCE
322 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
OSAGE BEACH TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE...THROUGH 430 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$

WFO SGF

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311903
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
203 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ058-070-071-082-083-097-098-106-312015-
MARIES-PULASKI-PHELPS-TEXAS-DENT-HOWELL-SHANNON-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIENNA...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...THAYER...ALTON
203 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$
WFO SGF


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311838
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN OZARKS AHEAD OF A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TO THE
WEST OF THIS FEATURE...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LAGGING A BIT AS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING GRADUALLY ERODE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS RATHER WEAK.

WILL STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN
OVER THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A LOW END RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALREADY
EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. HOWEVER...LACK OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO MAINLY SHORT LIVED STORMS. HIGH
RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT WITH THE SHORT DURATION
OF THE STORMS...FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS THE FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
STALLS TONIGHT AND LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS HINT AS
SOME NOCTURNAL STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. SO THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION.
STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION TO END THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE COULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE WITH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

TERRY

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL OZARKS THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PERSISTS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY/TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PROGRESSIVELY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT I DO NOT WANT TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE PERSISTS AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

BELIEVE SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE TO RADIATING COOLING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADDED INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING (INCREASING WEST TO EAST) AS WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

WISE/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311801
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ057-058-069>071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106-311930-
MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...
OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
ROLLA...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...MARSHFIELD...
ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...
WINONA...EMINENCE...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
101 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
WFO SGF

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311729
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMP END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE SOLUTION OF
STALLING OR WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM INDICATING THAT
SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2300 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
AVAILABLE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION OF BETTER LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EASTERN KANSAS WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE SAGGING FRONT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WHILE THE INSTABILITY OUTPUT OF THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE A BIT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING STRONG TO
POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND THOSE OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST WEATHER ACTIVITY.

THE WASHED OUT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG IT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFFECT THE OZARKS.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND PUSHES ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. MODELS HANDEL THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
A BIT DIFFERENTLY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH AND LEANED
TOWARDS THE SREF/ECMWF DEPICTION WITH THE FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DEVELOPS A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL OZARKS THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PERSISTS IN FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY/TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING AS A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PROGRESSIVELY
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AIR MASS BEHIND THIS WEAKENING
COLD FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE BUT I DO NOT WANT TO RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE PERSISTS AND SURFACE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S.

BELIEVE SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN DUE TO RADIATING COOLING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ADDED INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN
TAFS FOR TOMORROW MORNING (INCREASING WEST TO EAST) AS WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

WISE/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311709
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ057-058-069>071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106-311815-
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
PHELPS MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
1209 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A ELDON
TO SEYMOUR TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311607
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ070-071-081>083-092-096>098-105-106-311715-
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-
DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-OZARK MO-
1107 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF A FORT LEONARD WOOD TO GAINESVILLE LINE THROUGH NOON
TODAY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

$$

WISE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311516
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ058-070-071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106-311615-
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-
OZARK MO-
1016 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...

A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LEBANON TO PROTEM MISSOURI LINE AND ALONG AND WEST OF A SALEM TO
WEST PLAINS LINE THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311416
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
916 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-104>106-311515-
SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-
DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-DENT MO-
MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-
OZARK MO-
916 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH
AND WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF AN ELDON TO
BRANSON LINE AND ALONG AND WEST OF A SALEM TO GAINESVILLE LINE
THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 311319
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
819 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MOZ055>058-068>070-079>082-090>092-095-096-103>105-311415-
GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-
DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-HICKORY MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
819 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

NOW...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY DEVELOPED ALONG A
LINE FROM VERSAILLES TO BRANSON MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311044
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMP END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE SOLUTION OF
STALLING OR WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM INDICATING THAT
SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2300 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
AVAILABLE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION OF BETTER LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EASTERN KANSAS WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE SAGGING FRONT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WHILE THE INSTABILITY OUTPUT OF THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE A BIT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING STRONG TO
POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND THOSE OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST WEATHER ACTIVITY.

THE WASHED OUT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG IT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFFECT THE OZARKS.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND PUSHES ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. MODELS HANDEL THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
A BIT DIFFERENTLY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH AND LEANED
TOWARDS THE SREF/ECMWF DEPICTION WITH THE FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DEVELOPS A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND KSGF AND KBBG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE
COVERAGE...VCTS AND CB PREVAILING GROUPS WERE USED. MVFR AND BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. THERE WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL FOG THREAT LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN
MANAGE TO CLEAR.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310847
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMP END TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED THE SOLUTION OF
STALLING OR WASHING OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM INDICATING THAT
SURFACE BASE CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2300 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
AVAILABLE BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY IN THE REGION OF BETTER LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND EASTERN KANSAS WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE SAGGING FRONT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. WHILE THE INSTABILITY OUTPUT OF THE NAM IS LIKELY
OVERDONE A BIT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING STRONG TO
POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES AND THOSE OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO KEEP UP TO DATE
ON THE LATEST WEATHER ACTIVITY.

THE WASHED OUT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OF
THE OZARKS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO RIDE ALONG IT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFFECT THE OZARKS.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND PUSHES ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS. MODELS HANDEL THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT
A BIT DIFFERENTLY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH AND LEANED
TOWARDS THE SREF/ECMWF DEPICTION WITH THE FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD
AS WELL...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY DEVELOPS A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE PATTERN AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FOG. ALREADY SEEING VISIBILITIES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
VFR CATEGORY AT KSGF AND KJLN DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH KBBG ALREADY HITTING MVFR CRITERIA. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING DUE TO A DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...DID INCLUDE IFR LATER TONIGHT AT KBBG.
STUCK WITH MVFR AT KJLN AND KSGF. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE LATER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI ALONG OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...SO HAVE JUST MAINTAINED VCTS AND CB
MENTION IN PREVAILING GROUPS. THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY STORMS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310523
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTIVITY
WAS SUPPORTED BY A MOISTURE PLUME THAT ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. A VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDED
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
13. THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT BEST AS LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR IS IN PLACE. LOCALLY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SOME MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.

SOME QUESTION EXISTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. A SIGNAL EXIST FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR AT LEAST
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN MIGRATE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE 90 DEGREE
MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS. CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

FOSTER

&&

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COOL AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA
KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE FOG. ALREADY SEEING VISIBILITIES SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
VFR CATEGORY AT KSGF AND KJLN DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH KBBG ALREADY HITTING MVFR CRITERIA. THINK A SLOW
DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING DUE TO A DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS. NEVERTHELESS...DID INCLUDE IFR LATER TONIGHT AT KBBG.
STUCK WITH MVFR AT KJLN AND KSGF. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE LATER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI ALONG OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM SUNDAY. THIS IS NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SCENARIO...SO HAVE JUST MAINTAINED VCTS AND CB
MENTION IN PREVAILING GROUPS. THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WILL BE MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ANY STORMS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302319
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTIVITY
WAS SUPPORTED BY A MOISTURE PLUME THAT ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. A VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDED
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
13. THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT BEST AS LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR IS IN PLACE. LOCALLY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SOME MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.

SOME QUESTION EXISTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. A SIGNAL EXIST FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR AT LEAST
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN MIGRATE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE 90 DEGREE
MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS. CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

FOSTER

&&
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COOL AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA
KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND NOT AFFECT JLN THIS EVENING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING IN S CENTRAL MO. THE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE THEY PROVIDED WILL HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG MONDAY
MORNING. JLN AND SGF WILL SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 9Z...WHILE
BBG WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN INTO AT LEAST IFR. FOG WILL LIFT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND ALL THREE SITES WILL AGAIN SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302148
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-310000-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-
PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-
DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-
HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING. THROUGH 7
PM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...ALONG WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 302148
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-310000-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-
PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-
DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-
HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
448 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING. THROUGH 7
PM...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN...HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FREQUENCY
OF STORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...ALONG WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302053
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302215-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA LINE THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$
WISE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 302053
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302215-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...
WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA LINE THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$
WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302008
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302115-
LAWRENCE MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-
TEXAS MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-
HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
DENT MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF A CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA LINE THROUGH 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 302008
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-302115-
LAWRENCE MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-
TEXAS MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-
HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
DENT MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF A CASSVILLE TO OSCEOLA LINE THROUGH 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301949
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTIVITY
WAS SUPPORTED BY A MOISTURE PLUME THAT ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI. A VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDED
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
13. THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AT BEST AS LAPSE
RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR IS IN PLACE. LOCALLY RAINFALL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THIS CONVECTION
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI KANSAS BORDER TONIGHT.
CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY
PROVIDING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK
OF SHEAR AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD PUT A DAMPER ON SOME MEMORIAL DAY ACTIVITIES.

SOME QUESTION EXISTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. A SIGNAL EXIST FOR A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OR AT LEAST
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD THEN MIGRATE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS THE 90 DEGREE
MARK AT A FEW LOCATIONS. CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

FOSTER

&&

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
/ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COOL AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE AREA
KEEPING HIGHS AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE
BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER WARMER CONDITIONS BACK INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
MISSISSIPPI WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE OZARKS REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KSGF
AND AREAS EAST AS MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY MORE ABUNDANT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS SSW TOWARD WICHITA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN
MISSOURI BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TOMORROW
MORNING. INCLUDED EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG IN THE TAFS WITH VISIBILITIES
MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN NEAR CALM WINDS.

FOSTER/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301945
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ097-302030-
HOWELL MO-
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SILOAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS STORM.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301902
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-302015-
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-
DADE MO-TEXAS MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-
DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-DENT MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-NEWTON MO-HOWELL MO-BARRY MO-OREGON MO-
TANEY MO-OZARK MO-MCDONALD MO-
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301902
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-302015-
LAWRENCE MO-JASPER MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-
DADE MO-TEXAS MO-BARTON MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-
DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-VERNON MO-HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-DENT MO-BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-NEWTON MO-HOWELL MO-BARRY MO-OREGON MO-
TANEY MO-OZARK MO-MCDONALD MO-
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

BOATERS ON AREA LAKES SHOULD MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

$$

WISE

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301723
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS FORMING AT MIDDAY WITHIN A MOIST UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. THE ACTIVITY WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MOISTURE PLUME
THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER
MISSISSIPPI. A VORTICITY LOBE EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AREA WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE ACTIVITY MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 13. THERE IS ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT BEST AS LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK AND VIRTUALLY NO SHEAR IS IN
PLACE. LOCALLY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
RISKS. CONVECTION WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR THE MISSOURI
KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OTHER THAN
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AFTER A GREAT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. IN ADDITION A CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND BE PICKED UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.

LOOKING AT THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS...ALL ARE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS AROUND
THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND WELL WITH MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING...COOLING ALOFT VIA UPPER LEVEL LOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE
PULSE TYPE TO MULTICELLULAR TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SOME SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE
ALBEIT WEAK IN NATURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VIA NAM IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BECOMES
RATHER A MESS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEAK...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BOTH FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE LIKELY SOLUTION IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
JUST HARD TO AGREE WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO THE GULF
STATES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY WAY I LOOK AT IT...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO THE MODEL OUTPUT PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND HOPEFULLY A
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A BROAD WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
MISSISSIPPI WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO
MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY FILL WHILE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE OZARKS REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT A SOMEWHAT
GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KSGF
AND AREAS EAST AS MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY MORE ABUNDANT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS SSW TOWARD WICHITA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN
MISSOURI BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SECOND SHOT OF RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TOMORROW
MORNING. INCLUDED EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG IN THE TAFS WITH
VISIBILITIES MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN NEAR CALM
WINDS.

FOSTER/COLUCCI

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301658
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-301815-
LAWRENCE MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-
TEXAS MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-
HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-DENT MO-CHRISTIAN MO-
DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROLLA TO EL DORADO SPRINGS LINE THROUGH 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301658
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106-301815-
LAWRENCE MO-SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-DADE MO-
TEXAS MO-STONE MO-POLK MO-LACLEDE MO-CEDAR MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-
HICKORY MO-PHELPS MO-ST. CLAIR MO-CAMDEN MO-DENT MO-CHRISTIAN MO-
DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
1158 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A ROLLA TO EL DORADO SPRINGS LINE THROUGH 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$

WISE


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301052
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AFTER A GREAT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. IN ADDITION A CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND BE PICKED UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.

LOOKING AT THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS...ALL ARE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS AROUND
THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND WELL WITH MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING...COOLING ALOFT VIA UPPER LEVEL LOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE
PULSE TYPE TO MULTICELLULAR TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SOME SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE
ALBEIT WEAK IN NATURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VIA NAM IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BECOMES
RATHER A MESS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEAK...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BOTH FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE LIKELY SOLUTION IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
JUST HARD TO AGREE WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO THE GULF
STATES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY WAY I LOOK AT IT...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO THE MODEL OUTPUT PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND HOPEFULLY A
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

HIGH END MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND
KSGF AND KBBG DUE TO LIGHT FOG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THIS PUTS KSGF AND KBBG ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY...SO WENT WITH VCSH AND CB
IN PREVAILING GROUPS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN PLACEMENT AND
TIMING TO GO WITH TEMPO OR PREVAILING THUNDERSTORM GROUPS AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT FOG WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
INTRODUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE STARTING AT 09Z
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301040
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-095>098-103>106-301300-
BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-
PHELPS-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-STONE-TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...GREENFIELD...
SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...
EMINENCE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH...
GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
540 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND AREA LAKES AND IN VALLEYS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
PATCHY NATURE OF THE FOG. ALL OF THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.

$$

SCHAUMANN


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300816
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE REGION WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
INTO MEMORIAL DAY AFTER A GREAT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS CANADA. IN ADDITION A CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SLIDE WESTWARD AND BE PICKED UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.

LOOKING AT THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODELS...ALL ARE INDICATING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS AROUND
THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND WELL WITH MAXIMUM
DIURNAL HEATING...COOLING ALOFT VIA UPPER LEVEL LOW...INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PROGGED SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE
PULSE TYPE TO MULTICELLULAR TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK AND FORCING WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND
THOUGH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT AS WELL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS SOME SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE
ALBEIT WEAK IN NATURE AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY VIA NAM IS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BECOMES
RATHER A MESS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEAK...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH BOTH FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE LIKELY SOLUTION IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.
JUST HARD TO AGREE WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO THE GULF
STATES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY WAY I LOOK AT IT...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW WITH REGARD TO THE MODEL OUTPUT PAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND HOPEFULLY A
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

HATCH

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06 TAF PACKAGE...FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. IN FACT A SHRA OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BBG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE WITH CB AND VC. WILL NEED TO WATCH SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LATER
FORECASTS CAN REFINE THESE RISKS.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300639
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
139 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

INVERSION HAS BECOME TOO STOUT FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO OVERCOME
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE
DRIFTING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THINKING THIS WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ELEVATED ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...ELEVATED INSTABILITY REALLY DROPS OFF ALONG AND WEST
OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. HAVE THEREFORE PULLED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A CUMULUS FIELD WAS SPREADING WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED WESTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LACKING
SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED AND PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG
LIFT WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING GIVEN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STALLED OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE OZARKS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A SCATTERED FASHION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
DECIDEDLY PROBLEMATIC TO PINPOINT AT THIS DISTANCE. WINDS SHOULD
TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BROAD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE FRONT NORTH TO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODEL SIMILARITIES PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE GFS IS INSISTENT ON BARRELING A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY (AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY)...WHILE
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OBVIOUSLY...THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS OF ESSENTIALLY ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO JUST WHAT THAT FINAL
SOLUTION WILL BE. FOR THIS FORECAST I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LEND FAR MORE DETAIL AND SKILL AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06 TAF PACKAGE...FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. IN FACT A SHRA OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BBG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE WITH CB AND VC. WILL NEED TO WATCH SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LATER
FORECASTS CAN REFINE THESE RISKS.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300506
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

MOZ082-092-096-097-105-300700-
TEXAS-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-OZARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

NOW...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THE BULK OF ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY IMPACT LOCATIONS
FROM NORWOOD AND MANSFIELD...SOUTH INTO THE AVA AND GAINESVILLE
AREAS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.

$$

SCHAUMANN


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300434
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

THE NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY WEST. WITH TIME IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO
AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WEAKER UPDRAFTS...THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX TO KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
ON THE DECREASE DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES...SO IT APPEARS THE
DOWNWARD TREND IS ALREADY STARTING. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO THE HWY 65 CORRIDOR AND HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

GAGAN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A CUMULUS FIELD WAS SPREADING WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED WESTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LACKING
SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED AND PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG
LIFT WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING GIVEN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STALLED OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE OZARKS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A SCATTERED FASHION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
DECIDEDLY PROBLEMATIC TO PINPOINT AT THIS DISTANCE. WINDS SHOULD
TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BROAD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE FRONT NORTH TO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODEL SIMILARITIES PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE GFS IS INSISTENT ON BARRELING A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY (AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY)...WHILE
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OBVIOUSLY...THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS OF ESSENTIALLY ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO JUST WHAT THAT FINAL
SOLUTION WILL BE. FOR THIS FORECAST I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LEND FAR MORE DETAIL AND SKILL AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06 TAF PACKAGE...FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE EXPERIENCING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. IN FACT A SHRA OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BBG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED SO WILL CONTINUE
TO HANDLE WITH CB AND VC. WILL NEED TO WATCH SHRA/TSRA ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT WILL EDGE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LATER
FORECASTS CAN REFINE THESE RISKS.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300330
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

MOZ082-092-096>098-105-106-300500-
TEXAS-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...CABOOL...MOUNTAIN GROVE...
MANSFIELD...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...
THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER THOSE THAT
ENCOUNTER THIS ACTIVITY CAN EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A QUICK ONE
QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE
OBSERVED THESE STORMS.

$$

GAGAN


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300242
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

..MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

UPDATE...

SUBTLE VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION HAS SPARKED OFF A FEW SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL CLIP FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
WEST TO EAST AND OFFER A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OF RAIN...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND A BRIEF WIND GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES TO THE WEST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER DECREASING INSTABILITY. THUS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN...THOUGH GIVEN MODEST
FORCING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT
THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF
COUNTIES PRONE TO OBSERVING THIS ACTIVITY.

GAGAN

&&

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A CUMULUS FIELD WAS SPREADING WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED WESTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LACKING
SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED AND PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG
LIFT WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING GIVEN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STALLED OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE OZARKS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A SCATTERED FASHION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
DECIDEDLY PROBLEMATIC TO PINPOINT AT THIS DISTANCE. WINDS SHOULD
TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BROAD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE FRONT NORTH TO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODEL SIMILARITIES PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE GFS IS INSISTENT ON BARRELING A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY (AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY)...WHILE
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OBVIOUSLY...THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS OF ESSENTIALLY ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO JUST WHAT THAT FINAL
SOLUTION WILL BE. FOR THIS FORECAST I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LEND FAR MORE DETAIL AND SKILL AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL START TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF SGF AND BBG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY AFFECT
THOSE SITES AFTER 17Z TOMORROW...WHILE JLN REMAINS IN THE CLEAR.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300227
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
927 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

MOZ082-097-098-106-300330-
SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-
927 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...

AT 920 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF RAYMONDVILLE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MYRTLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
ALTON...ARROLL...BENDAVIS...BIRCH TREE...BRANDSVILLE...BUCYRUS...
CABOOL...COUCH...GREER...HARTSHORN...HOUSTON...HUGGINS...MONTIER...
MOUNTAIN VIEW...MYRTLE...PEACE VALLEY...POMONA...PRESCOTT...
RAYMONDVILLE... ROVER...SIMMONS...SUCCESS...TERESITA...THAYER...
THOMASVILLE...WEST PLAINS...WHITE CHURCH...WILLOW SPRINGS AND YUKON.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SHANNON AND OREGON COUNTIES AFTER
1030 PM.

$$

GAGAN

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 300002
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

MOZ056-057-069-070-080-081-300215-
MORGAN-MILLER-CAMDEN-PULASKI-DALLAS-LACLEDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...
OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...WAYNESVILLE...
BUFFALO...LEBANON
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...
A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER AREAS OF
PULASKI...LACLEDE...CAMDEN...AND MILLER COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM.
MOST AREAS WITHIN THESE COUNTIES WILL REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER...LOCATIONS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

$$
CRAMER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 292303
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-091-092-096>098-105-106-300115-
MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-DALLAS-LACLEDE-TEXAS-
DENT-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...ELDON...LAKE OZARK...
VIENNA...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...
SALEM...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...
AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...
THAYER...ALTON
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. MORE
SPECIFICALLY THROUGH 7 PM...AREAS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
COUNTY...SOUTHERN LACLEDE COUNTY...AND RURAL AREAS WEST OF LAQUEY
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING WEST AT AROUND 20
MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

$$
CRAMER

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292244
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A CUMULUS FIELD WAS SPREADING WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED WESTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS.

MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AROUND THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH. WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LACKING
SUNDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.

LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE MIGRATING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED AND PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF SHEAR AND STRONG
LIFT WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING GIVEN THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
ON MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.

FOSTER

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS POINT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN ORPHANED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STALLED OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE OZARKS. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN A SCATTERED FASHION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY...BUT SPECIFIC TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
DECIDEDLY PROBLEMATIC TO PINPOINT AT THIS DISTANCE. WINDS SHOULD
TURN SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN BROAD
AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE FRONT NORTH TO IOWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MODEL SIMILARITIES PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE GFS IS INSISTENT ON BARRELING A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY (AND EVENTUALLY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST BY SATURDAY)...WHILE
THE EURO STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. OBVIOUSLY...THE
EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS OF ESSENTIALLY ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO JUST WHAT THAT FINAL
SOLUTION WILL BE. FOR THIS FORECAST I GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HPC
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO LEND FAR MORE DETAIL AND SKILL AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BOXELL

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS THAT WILL START TO
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF SGF AND BBG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY AFFECT
THOSE SITES AFTER 17Z TOMORROW...WHILE JLN REMAINS IN THE CLEAR.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 291949
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...ANY LOCATION THAT
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE SHOWERS CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 291949
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-292300-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
ELDON...LAKE OZARK...VIENNA...NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...
HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...
WAYNESVILLE...ROLLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...LEBANON...HOUSTON...CABOOL...SALEM...JOPLIN...
CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...
MOUNTAIN GROVE...MANSFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...AVA...WEST PLAINS...WINONA...EMINENCE...ANDERSON...
PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...
BRANSON...FORSYTH...GAINESVILLE...THEODOSIA...THAYER...ALTON
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

NOW...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...ANY LOCATION THAT
EXPERIENCES ONE OF THESE SHOWERS CAN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN.

$$
CRAMER


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com