Friday, April 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010355
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

UPDATE...

STRONG DEEP CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED. WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RESULTING
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOSTER

&&

DISCUSSION...

OVERVIEW...MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP
QUICKLY ERODED DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z
SOUNDING WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER
SPEED SHEAR WAS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH
300-400 M2/S2 HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION
HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY
HAVE SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER
SHOWERS ON RADAR. DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

FORECAST...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES
INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST.
ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THEN STALL FROM
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-
105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302358
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOZ071-082-083-092-096>098-104>106-010145-
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-PHELPS MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
658 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...

AT 651 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE TO
HOUSTON AND SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THROUGH 9 PM...AND AFFECT WILLOW SPRINGS...SUMMERSVILLE...
AND ROUND SPRING. HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TAKE SHELTER FROM THE STORMS IN A STURDY BUILDING. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

$$

FOSTER


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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302337
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
637 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0637 PM HAIL DORA 36.78N 92.22W
04/30/2010 M1.00 INCH OZARK MO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

WD


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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302317
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TORNADO 1 E GAINESVILLE 36.60N 92.41W
04/30/2010 OZARK MO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

AFOSTER


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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302308
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
608 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG PONTIAC 36.52N 92.60W
04/30/2010 OZARK MO EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

AFOSTER


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302300
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

..OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.

..CURRENTLY...
12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP QUICKLY ERODED
DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z SOUNDING WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR WAS
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-400 M2/S2
HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY HAVE SEVERAL
DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER SHOWERS ON RADAR.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

..FORECAST...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST. ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND
AM NOT EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT THE SITES TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE BBG SITE AS
THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BBG DURING THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-
105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302225
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOZ057-058-070-071-081>083-091-092-096>098-104>106-302345-
SHANNON MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
PHELPS MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-DENT MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-OREGON MO-
TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
525 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...

AT 520 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THEODOSIA...TO
HARTVILLE...TO FORT LEONARD WOOD AND VIENNA MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
ROLLA...SALEM...HOUSTON...AND WEST PLAINS.

HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN A SHORT PERIOD IF TIME. LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

$$

FOSTER


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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302130
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL HIGHLANDVILLE 36.93N 93.28W
04/30/2010 E1.00 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

JCOLUCCI


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Tornado Watch - Cancellation

WWUS63 KSGF 302157
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 114
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOC009-077-109-119-145-167-302300-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.A.0114.000000T0000Z-100501T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 114 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS CANCELS 6 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY GREENE LAWRENCE
MCDONALD NEWTON POLK

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...AURORA...BOLIVAR...
CASSVILLE...MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...PINEVILLE...
REPUBLIC AND SPRINGFIELD.

$$


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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302112
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
412 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 8 SE SPRINGFIELD 37.11N 93.18W
04/30/2010 E1.00 INCH GREENE MO BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF 125 AND 60 HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

SRUNNELS


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Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 302114
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
414 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-102>106-302300-
SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-STONE MO-
LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-
MILLER MO-DENT MO-MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
414 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
GALENA...TO MARSHFIELD...TO LEBANON AND IBERIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH 700 PM CDT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR ROLLA TO MOUNTAIN GROVE AND GAINESVILLE
BY 6 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WAYNESVILLE...FORT LEONARD WOOD...HARTVILLE...AVA AND BRANSON.

HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

$$

FOSTER


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301940
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

..OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ON SATURDAY.

..CURRENTLY...
12Z SOUNDING FROM SGF WAS PRETTY CAPPED HOWEVER CAP QUICKLY ERODED
DURING THE MORNING WITH NO CAP PRESENT AT 18Z SOUNDING WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG CAPE AVAIL. WIND FIELDS WERE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
A SLIGHT BACKING TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SPEED SHEAR WAS
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT YIELDING HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-400 M2/S2
HELICITIES. WITH CAP GONE...EARLIER WEAK CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES AND CURRENTLY HAVE SEVERAL
DISCRETE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF WEAKER SHOWERS ON RADAR.
DEWPOINTS HAVE CREEPED BACK INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 19Z.

..FORECAST...
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PUSHES INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING WITH BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING EAST. ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE EVENING WHERE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
OUR EASTERN CWA WHERE A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE SLOW TO MOVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...MORE
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THERE...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS MANY
INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF
JLN SHOULD AFFECT JLN AT THE ONSET OF THE 18Z TAFS AND SPREAD EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. HAVE DROPPED CEILINGS WITH
THE CONVECTION TO AROUND 2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-105-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 302114
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
414 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOZ056>058-069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-102>106-302300-
SHANNON MO-GREENE MO-WRIGHT MO-WEBSTER MO-TEXAS MO-STONE MO-
LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-CAMDEN MO-MARIES MO-
MILLER MO-DENT MO-MORGAN MO-CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-HOWELL MO-
BARRY MO-OREGON MO-TANEY MO-OZARK MO-
414 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
A LINE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
GALENA...TO MARSHFIELD...TO LEBANON AND IBERIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH 700 PM CDT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR ROLLA TO MOUNTAIN GROVE AND GAINESVILLE
BY 6 PM CDT.

LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WAYNESVILLE...FORT LEONARD WOOD...HARTVILLE...AVA AND BRANSON.

HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

$$

FOSTER

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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302051
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
351 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL WASHBURN 36.59N 93.97W
04/30/2010 E0.50 INCH BARRY MO POST OFFICE

&&

$$

JCOLUCCI


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Tornado Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 302034
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 114
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOC009-043-059-065-067-077-105-109-119-125-145-153-161-167-169-
209-213-215-225-229-010100-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.A.0114.000000T0000Z-100501T0100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 114 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK POLK STONE
TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...AURORA...AVA...BOLIVAR...
BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...CASSVILLE...FORSYTH...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...GALENA...HOUSTON...
KIMBERLING CITY...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...NIXA...OZARK...
PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...
SPRINGFIELD...THEODOSIA...VIENNA AND WAYNESVILLE.

$$


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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 302020
SVRSGF
MOC009-119-302100-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0037.100430T2020Z-100430T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
320 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

* AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELIGMAN...OR 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CASSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUTTERFIELD...CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...
EXETER...GOLDEN...JENKINS...MADRY...MCDOWELL...MONETT...PIONEER...
PLEASANT RIDGE...POWELL...PURDY...RIDGLEY...ROCKY COMFORT...
SELIGMAN...SHELL KNOB...WASHBURN...WAYNE...WHEATON AND
WHEELERVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROARING RIVER STATE PARK AND
TABLE ROCK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 9414 3675 9407 3693 9407 3692 9362
3683 9363 3682 9359 3669 9358 3649 9360
3649 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 221DEG 51KT 3650 9401
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$
DSA

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Local Storm/Damage Report

NWUS53 KSGF 302008
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM HAIL 1 S WALNUT GROVE 37.40N 93.55W
04/30/2010 E0.88 INCH GREENE MO EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

HATCH


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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 301935
SVRSGF
MOC009-302030-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0034.100430T1935Z-100430T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT.

* AT 231 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELIGMAN...OR 19 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CASSVILLE...EAGLE ROCK...EXETER...
GOLDEN...JENKINS...MADRY...MCDOWELL...SELIGMAN...SHELL KNOB...
WASHBURN...WAYNE AND WHEELERVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ROARING RIVER STATE PARK AND
TABLE ROCK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9408 3658 9408 3692 9370 3692 9364
3689 9362 3683 9363 3682 9360 3681 9359
3654 9359 3649 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 222DEG 52KT 3645 9409
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

DSA

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 301916
SVRSGF
MOC009-119-145-302000-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0033.100430T1916Z-100430T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 207 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUTTERFIELD...EXETER...FAIRVIEW...
MCDOWELL...MONETT...NEWTONIA...PINEVILLE...PIONEER...POWELL...
PURDY...RIDGLEY...ROCKY COMFORT...STARK CITY...STELLA AND WHEATON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9450 3700 9415 3697 9407 3693 9407
3693 9393 3686 9370 3648 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 219DEG 53KT 3651 9433
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$
DSA

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

WUUS53 KSGF 301857
SVRSGF
MOC057-097-109-145-301945-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0032.100430T1857Z-100430T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
157 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT.

* AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARCOXIE...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MONETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVILLA...DUDENVILLE...EVERTON...
GREENFIELD...LA RUSSELL...LOCKWOOD...MAPLE GROVE...MEINERT...
MILLER...MOUNT VERNON...PENNSBORO...RED OAK...REEDS...SARCOXIE...
SOUTH GREENFIELD...STOTTS CITY AND WENTWORTH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE STOCKTON LAKE. INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 45 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3705 9424 3748 9401 3748 9363 3728 9363
3724 9362 3694 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 224DEG 55KT 3707 9408
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.25IN

$$

DSA

WWWW

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Tornado Watch

WWUS63 KSGF 301846
WCNSGF

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 111/114
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
146 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

MOC009-043-059-065-067-077-105-109-119-125-145-153-161-167-169-
209-213-215-225-229-010100-
/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.A.0114.100430T1846Z-100501T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 114 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 20 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

MARIES PHELPS PULASKI

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI

DENT TEXAS

IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS
DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
OZARK POLK STONE
TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...AURORA...AVA...BOLIVAR...
BRANSON...BUFFALO...CABOOL...CASSVILLE...FORSYTH...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...GAINESVILLE...GALENA...HOUSTON...
KIMBERLING CITY...LEBANON...MANSFIELD...MARSHFIELD...MONETT...
MOUNT VERNON...MOUNTAIN GROVE...NEOSHO...NIXA...OZARK...
PINEVILLE...REPUBLIC...ROGERSVILLE...ROLLA...SALEM...
SPRINGFIELD...THEODOSIA...VIENNA AND WAYNESVILLE.

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301656
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRACKED EAST THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO 70 TO 80
KNOTS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO REACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
THROUGH MID MORNING. A STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO
THE OZARKS BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS TRACKING EAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOWER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
THE OZARKS. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. ALONG THIS
FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FORECAST MODELS PROGGING 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 60-80
KNOTS...0-1KM HELICITY RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM CAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY
THREATS WITH A SECONDARY TORNADO THREAT MOST FAVORABLE IN BROKEN
LINE SEGMENTS AND IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT.

THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES CONDITIONAL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING ON
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN AND FROM HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW.

ANGLE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF
JLN SHOULD AFFECT JLN AT THE ONSET OF THE 18Z TAFS AND SPREAD EAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. HAVE DROPPED CEILINGS WITH
THE CONVECTION TO AROUND 2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301608
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>079-088-089-093-094-301715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-
CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1230 PM...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEOSHO TO BOLIVAR TO VERSAILLES. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE INCH HAIL...50 MPH WINDS...AND
VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301608
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-056-066>069-077>079-088-089-093-094-301715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-
CAMDEN-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...VERSAILLES...
NEVADA...APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...
CAMDENTON...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...
JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1230 PM...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEOSHO TO BOLIVAR TO VERSAILLES. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ONE INCH HAIL...50 MPH WINDS...AND
VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
DSA


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301434
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-089-093-101-301630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-
JASPER-DADE-NEWTON-MCDONALD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...NEOSHO...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE
934 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1130 AM...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ANDERSON TO STOCKTON TO WARSAW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH HAIL AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO OCCUR IN WESTERN MISSOURI...AND STRONGER STORMS
MAY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301434
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066-067-077-078-088-089-093-101-301630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-BARTON-CEDAR-
JASPER-DADE-NEWTON-MCDONALD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...
JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...NEOSHO...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE
934 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1130 AM...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ANDERSON TO STOCKTON TO WARSAW. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH HAIL AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO OCCUR IN WESTERN MISSOURI...AND STRONGER STORMS
MAY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN SOME ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

$$
DSA


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Short Term Forecast - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FPUS73 KSGF 301345
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088-301530-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...LAMAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE
845 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1030 AM...RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSOURI AND KANSAS BORDER INCLUDING AREAS FROM GIRARD AND JOPLIN
NORTH TO UNIONTOWN...FORT SCOTT...AND NEVADA. ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH HAIL AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
DSA


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Short Term Forecast

FPUS73 KSGF 301345
NOWSGF

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
845 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077-088-301530-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...NEVADA...LAMAR...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE
845 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

NOW...
THROUGH 1030 AM...RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AFFECTING COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSOURI AND KANSAS BORDER INCLUDING AREAS FROM GIRARD AND JOPLIN
NORTH TO UNIONTOWN...FORT SCOTT...AND NEVADA. ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE UP TO ONE INCH HAIL AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$
DSA


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301150
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRACKED EAST THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO 70 TO 80
KNOTS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO REACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
THROUGH MID MORNING. A STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO
THE OZARKS BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS TRACKING EAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOWER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
THE OZARKS. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. ALONG THIS
FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FORECAST MODELS PROGGING 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 60-80
KNOTS...0-1KM HELICITY RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM CAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY
THREATS WITH A SECONDARY TORNADO THREAT MOST FAVORABLE IN BROKEN
LINE SEGMENTS AND IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT.

THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES CONDITIONAL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING ON
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN AND FROM HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW.

ANGLE

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS IS
WHERE TSRA HAVE BEEN MOST FREQUENT SO FAR THIS MORNING. LITTLE
EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE MADE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
EDGES TO THE EAST. THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD...FLIRTING WITH MVFR FOR A TIME...OTHERWISE CIGS SHOULD
STAY JUST INTO THE VFR RANGE. OTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS TSRA AFFECT THE AERODROMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE MVFR CIG/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300841
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR TERM
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRACKED EAST THROUGH KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS INCREASED TO 70 TO 80
KNOTS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TO REACH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
THROUGH MID MORNING. A STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO
THE OZARKS BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS IN KANSAS TRACKING EAST
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LOWER INSTABILITY AND A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS
THE OZARKS. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS. ALONG THIS
FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
FORECAST MODELS PROGGING 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR RANGING FROM 60-80
KNOTS...0-1KM HELICITY RANGING FROM 100-200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KM CAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG. WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY
THREATS WITH A SECONDARY TORNADO THREAT MOST FAVORABLE IN BROKEN
LINE SEGMENTS AND IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT.

THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND BECOMES CONDITIONAL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING ON
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN AND FROM HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
OZARKS OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
DEPENDENT UPON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW.

ANGLE

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD TONIGHT
AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF A FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH A BROKEN
MVFR TO VFR DECK DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300504
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN AND IS BEING MET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY RELAX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND GULF MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MOISTURE IS SURGING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TOMORROW.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR CLOUD
COVER...ONE IS FROM CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER IS STRATUS POSSIBLY
FORMING AND SPREADING NORTH WITHIN THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY.

FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING THE CAP TO SOON...AND THE CAP
WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE
WILL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED THE EHWO SEVERE RISK LEVEL TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A SEVERE WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT....AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO GENERALLY
MOVE BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

WISE

&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. WHILE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA.
SHOULD ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE 80S.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD TONIGHT
AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WELL AHEAD OF A FRONT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORNING WITH A BROKEN
MVFR TO VFR DECK DEVELOPING FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

FOSTER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN AND IS BEING MET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY RELAX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND GULF MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MOISTURE IS SURGING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TOMORROW.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR CLOUD
COVER...ONE IS FROM CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER IS STRATUS POSSIBLY
FORMING AND SPREADING NORTH WITHIN THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY.

FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING THE CAP TO SOON...AND THE CAP
WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE
WILL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED THE EHWO SEVERE RISK LEVEL TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A SEVERE WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT....AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO GENERALLY
MOVE BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

WISE

&&
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. WHILE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA.
SHOULD ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE 80S.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT...WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN STRENGTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING FRIDAY AS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTER AND THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM INDUCE CONVECTIVE LIFT IN THE REGION.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292025
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL DEAL WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN AND IS BEING MET
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING AS THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS MAY RELAX BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...HOWEVER BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM A WARM AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND GULF MOISTURE IS
SURGING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S BY TOMORROW MORNING...LEAVING A MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS A STRONG CAP
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...BUT THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MOISTURE IS SURGING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE AREA. WITH THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY WARM TOMORROW.
QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THERE ARE A COUPLE POSSIBLE SOURCES FOR CLOUD
COVER...ONE IS FROM CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER IS STRATUS POSSIBLY
FORMING AND SPREADING NORTH WITHIN THE BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...WHICH
WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY.

FEEL THE MODELS MAY BE WEAKENING THE CAP TO SOON...AND THE CAP
WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MORNING CONVECTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THERE
WILL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED THE EHWO SEVERE RISK LEVEL TO SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY SURFACE BASED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A SEVERE WIND RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT....AND ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WARM SECTOR TO GENERALLY
MOVE BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA. WHILE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING. BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA.
SHOULD ADVECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE 80S.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OF 40 TO 55 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE ALSO BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 2500 FEET AFTER 14-15Z FRIDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291707
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
FORECAST CONCERN WAS WINDS TODAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WHAT WILL BE A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS
WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION. THE LOW LEVELS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW SWINGS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM HITTING 30 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 45
STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED. ONE MINOR
CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY WE WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GUST POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE OUT WEST THIS
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...IF WE ARE SLOW TO
DECOUPLE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A DEEP WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN
SNEAK IN HERE LATE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT QUITE
A BIT OF QPF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INVESTIGATION OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS REVEALS THAT MODELS ARE VERY QUICK TO ERODE WHAT WILL BE
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. INITIALLY...THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO MAY BE WEAK SHOWERS ROOTED BELOW THE EML WITH A QUICK
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE MAY THEN SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN MAY THEN BE THAT SURFACE FRONT AND A
TRAILING DRY LINE COMING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. BESIDES THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES...ADDITIONAL
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS CORRIDOR...THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BEING SURFACE
BASED. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE AREAS THAT MANAGE TO DESTABILIZE. IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT TERM FORECAST
ISSUE. SATURDAY IS NO EASIER AS THE POSITION OF THAT FRONT WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE KEEPING THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY AID
THE FRONT IN ITS PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...ANOTHER SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM FOR NOW AND INCLUDE A
STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
COMPLETELY AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK PERIOD WITH CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL PROVIDE STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OF 40 TO 55 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVLEOP OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE ALSO BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 2500 FEET AFTER 14-15Z FRIDAY.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291156
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
FORECAST CONCERN WAS WINDS TODAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WHAT WILL BE A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS
WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION. THE LOW LEVELS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW SWINGS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM HITTING 30 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 45
STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED. ONE MINOR
CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY WE WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GUST POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE OUT WEST THIS
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...IF WE ARE SLOW TO
DECOUPLE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A DEEP WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN
SNEAK IN HERE LATE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT QUITE
A BIT OF QPF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INVESTIGATION OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS REVEALS THAT MODELS ARE VERY QUICK TO ERODE WHAT WILL BE
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. INITIALLY...THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO MAY BE WEAK SHOWERS ROOTED BELOW THE EML WITH A QUICK
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE MAY THEN SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN MAY THEN BE THAT SURFACE FRONT AND A
TRAILING DRY LINE COMING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. BESIDES THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES...ADDITIONAL
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS CORRIDOR...THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BEING SURFACE
BASED. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE AREAS THAT MANAGE TO DESTABILIZE. IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT TERM FORECAST
ISSUE. SATURDAY IS NO EASIER AS THE POSITION OF THAT FRONT WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE KEEPING THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY AID
THE FRONT IN ITS PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...ANOTHER SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM FOR NOW AND INCLUDE A
STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
COMPLETELY AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK PERIOD WITH CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE OZARKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN THE PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING TO A RANGE NEAR 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. NEAR SUNRISE
FRIDAY...LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET WHERE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WEST
MISSOURI. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THIS PORTION OF THE TAF DRY WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING. ADDITIONAL TAFS WILL ADJUST FURTHER
SHOULD PRECIPITATION NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE TAFS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

ANGLE

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290733
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 AM CDT THU APR 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE FIRST
FORECAST CONCERN WAS WINDS TODAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
WHAT WILL BE A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A DRY AND MILD
WEDNESDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. IN ITS
WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS REGION. THE LOW LEVELS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW SWINGS EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA. CURRENT WIND
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM HITTING 30 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GUSTS TO 45
STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED. ONE MINOR
CONCERN IS HOW QUICKLY WE WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GUST POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE OUT WEST THIS
EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...IF WE ARE SLOW TO
DECOUPLE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 60S
TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A DEEP WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH. AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT KEPT LOW CHANCES GOING IN CASE SOMETHING CAN
SNEAK IN HERE LATE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT QUITE
A BIT OF QPF WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INVESTIGATION OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS REVEALS THAT MODELS ARE VERY QUICK TO ERODE WHAT WILL BE
A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. INITIALLY...THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO MAY BE WEAK SHOWERS ROOTED BELOW THE EML WITH A QUICK
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WE MAY THEN SEE ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR
ON THE NOSE OF A VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN MAY THEN BE THAT SURFACE FRONT AND A
TRAILING DRY LINE COMING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. BESIDES THE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES...ADDITIONAL
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS REMAIN IN QUESTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN
THIS CORRIDOR...THEY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BEING SURFACE
BASED. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED...SEVERE STORMS
REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE AREAS THAT MANAGE TO DESTABILIZE. IT IS JUST TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHERE THAT MAY OCCUR AS THIS WILL BE A SHORT TERM FORECAST
ISSUE. SATURDAY IS NO EASIER AS THE POSITION OF THAT FRONT WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. FROM A SYNOPTIC
STANDPOINT...THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE KEEPING THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MAY AID
THE FRONT IN ITS PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...ANOTHER SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM FOR NOW AND INCLUDE A
STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION A LIMITED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
THEREFORE LOWERED POPS SOME ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS
COMPLETELY AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
PERIOD. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK PERIOD WITH CONFIDENCE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

ALL PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY 45 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
PRIMARY DIRECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL BE
FROM 200 DEGREES.

THIS DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED CHANGE WITH HEIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF
THE JOPLIN...BRANSON...AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS.

NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ055-066>068-077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 290421
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WARM AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION...AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AND HAS INCREASED AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
REALLY START KICKING IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THESE WIND SPEEDS
ARE WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AS
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PULL
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FEEL MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AS THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN ANY CAP THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. COUPLE FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM INTO A MCS AND
DRIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASED. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA...AS VERY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASED. IF THESE
OCCUR A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL LIKELY...BUT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAYBE LESS LIKELY.

FEEL THERE WILL AT LEAST BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
SUPER CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK ON FRIDAY TO SIGNIFICANT IN
THE EHWO AND HWO ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE. AND HAVE LEFT AN ELEVATED RISK
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP A
SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT AS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE WARMUP.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

ALL PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY 45 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
PRIMARY DIRECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL BE
FROM 200 DEGREES.

THIS DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED CHANGE WITH HEIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF
THE JOPLIN...BRANSON...AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS.

NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282331
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
633 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WARM AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION...AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AND HAS INCREASED AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
REALLY START KICKING IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THESE WIND SPEEDS
ARE WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AS
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PULL
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FEEL MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AS THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN ANY CAP THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. COUPLE FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM INTO A MCS AND
DRIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASED. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA...AS VERY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASED. IF THESE
OCCUR A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL LIKELY...BUT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAYBE LESS LIKELY.

FEEL THERE WILL AT LEAST BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
SUPER CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK ON FRIDAY TO SIGNIFICANT IN
THE EHWO AND HWO ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE. AND HAVE LEFT AN ELEVATED RISK
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP A
SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT AS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE WARMUP.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

ALL PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL CREATE STRONG SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THESE
SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY 45 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A 50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE
PRIMARY DIRECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 2000 FEET WILL BE
FROM 200 DEGREES.

THIS DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED CHANGE WITH HEIGHT COULD CREATE SOME
DANGEROUS LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF
THE JOPLIN...BRANSON...AND SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS.

NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE FORECASTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 282006
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH WARM AND VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION...AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AND HAS INCREASED AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
REALLY START KICKING IN TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SPREADS
INTO THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL LIKELY SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THESE WIND SPEEDS
ARE WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AS
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP PULL
GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FEEL MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK
FOR LARGE HAIL AS THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
WEAKEN ANY CAP THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW...AND WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. COUPLE FACTORS
THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WITH THE CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN FORM INTO A MCS AND
DRIFT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASED. ALSO AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT A STRATUS DECK MAY
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA...AS VERY STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION SURGES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS
OCCURS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DECREASED. IF THESE
OCCUR A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS STILL LIKELY...BUT
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAYBE LESS LIKELY.

FEEL THERE WILL AT LEAST BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE STRONG WIND SHEAR
SUPER CELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A
RESULT HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE RISK ON FRIDAY TO SIGNIFICANT IN
THE EHWO AND HWO ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE. AND HAVE LEFT AN ELEVATED RISK
ELSEWHERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD
OCCUR LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING. WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP A
SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

WISE

&&

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON
IN THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED. HAVE KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST
POPS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT AS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE WARMUP.

LINDENBERG

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OUT IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AT 55 TO 65 KTS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM 50 TO 55 KTS OVERNIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>104.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 281707
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT WED APR 28 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIG WARMING TREND THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO POPS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
HEIGHTS QUICKLY FALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS. BESIDES BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...TODAY
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS CELSIUS.
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE APRIL INDICATES THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. THE BIGGER STORY FOR
THURSDAY WILL BE WIND. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONE SUPPORT WIND
MEETING OR EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALSO SEEM PLAUSIBLE
WITH DECENT MIXING EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED IF
THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS HOLD TRUE.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL THEN BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE OZARKS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF WHAT WILL BE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL EFFECTIVELY BEGIN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW MODELS ARE
BREAKING OUT PRECIPITATION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. NOT QUITE BUYING THIS
SCENARIO YET AS THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME IN THE MID LEVELS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FRIDAY MAY BE AN ACTIVE DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONT...WITH A DRY LINE TRAILING THE LOW
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE AMOUNT OF QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO BE BIG QUESTIONS. MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME IS TO BRING AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
INTO OUR GENERAL VICINITY. MEANWHILE...THE SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL
FAVOR FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEER. WITH THIS SAID...SEVERE
STORMS ARE A CONCERN. WILL BE INCREASING THE SEVERE STORM RISK
LEVEL INTO THE ELEVATED CATEGORY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...THE RISK LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE FRONT NOT MAKING ALL THAT MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONVECTIVE/COLD POOL PROCESSES MAY BE A
MUCH BIGGER PLAYER IN FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WILL THEREFORE BE A
SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE. UNTIL THAT TIME...MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION QUITE
POSSIBLE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIMITED FLOODING THREAT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND
SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AS THESE FINER DETAILS WILL HAVE
A HUGE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.

THE EARLY NEXT PERIOD GETS NO EASIER AS WE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION AND
CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE WITH
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OUT IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AT 55 TO 65 KTS WHICH WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM 50 TO 55 KTS OVERNIGHT.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. FEEL THAT MODELS ARE
SLIGHTLY OVERDOING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RETURN IN AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY. SEVERAL CALLS WERE MADE OUT
TO THE FIELD YESTERDAY...INCLUDING THE DEPARTMENT OF CONSERVATION
AND MARK TWAIN NATIONAL FOREST PERSONNEL. THE RESOUNDING THEME WAS
THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF FUELS WERE MOIST. NO HEADLINES ARE
THEREFORE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...DESPITE THE EXPECTED
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com