Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 010420
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1120 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH
FULL SUNSHINE UNDERWAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE 80S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR OF A SLIGHTLY MODIFYING AIR MASS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN FROM THE WESTERN DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...DEW
POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. IT'S
THIS INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT MAY PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
FORCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER EXAGGERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
SEVERELY BEATEN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CREATE
QUALITY MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UP TO 500
J/KG OF M.L CAPE WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE...THESE VALUES
MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

HOWEVER...IF THE EAST TEXAS MID 50 DEW POINT AIR MASS CAN ADVECT
INTO SW MO PRIOR TO FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH I THINK WILL
HAPPEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
FORECASTED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH...THIS RISK SEEMS VERY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP BOOST INSTABILITY
LEVELS JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. FLOODING MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION.

LINGERING CONVECTION IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...MOST LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS AS THE WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS
READINGS SHOOT BACK INTO THE 70S.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WARM FRONT
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY COULD
TRIGGER SOME MINOR CONVECTION. THIS SMALLER DETAIL WILL BE BETTER
UNDERSTOOD WITH TIME AND IS MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE CLOSER TO WHEN THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOMETIME AROUND THE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE WOULD LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION HAZARD WILL BE WITH WINDS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
JOPLIN WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVERNIGHT HOWEVER WINDS AT SGF/BBG
HAVE LOST GUSTINESS. WITH MIXING BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...GUSTS
WILL RETURN AT ALL STATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LINDENBERG

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. RH VALUES THROUGH
2-230 PM GOT DOWN INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH 10M
WINDS/AIRPORT SITES GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
STRONGEST OVERALL WIND GUSTS OCCURRED AS INVERSION WEAKENED LATE THIS
MORNING MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS SOME SUBTLE
INDICATION OF SOME MODIFIED GULF AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CWFA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE GENERAL DISCUSSION)...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING...DO NOT EXPECT GREAT
HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. AS WITH PAST SHIFTS...STRAIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
USELESS FOR DEW POINTS...AND GRIDS ARE MODIFIED DOWNWARD.

FOR THU...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH/DEW POINTS EXPECTED...IN
COORDINATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT GO WITH A
WATCH...BUT NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


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Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312320
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
620 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH
FULL SUNSHINE UNDERWAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE 80S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR OF A SLIGHTLY MODIFYING AIR MASS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN FROM THE WESTERN DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...DEW
POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. IT'S
THIS INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT MAY PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
FORCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER EXAGGERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
SEVERELY BEATEN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CREATE
QUALITY MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UP TO 500
J/KG OF M.L CAPE WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE...THESE VALUES
MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

HOWEVER...IF THE EAST TEXAS MID 50 DEW POINT AIR MASS CAN ADVECT
INTO SW MO PRIOR TO FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH I THINK WILL
HAPPEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
FORECASTED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH...THIS RISK SEEMS VERY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP BOOST INSTABILITY
LEVELS JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. FLOODING MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION.

LINGERING CONVECTION IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...MOST LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS AS THE WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS
READINGS SHOOT BACK INTO THE 70S.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WARM FRONT
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY COULD
TRIGGER SOME MINOR CONVECTION. THIS SMALLER DETAIL WILL BE BETTER
UNDERSTOOD WITH TIME AND IS MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE CLOSER TO WHEN THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOMETIME AROUND THE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE WOULD LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO FLIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. ALREADY STRONG SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL
TO THE WEST. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE TENDS TO DECOUPLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SPRINGFIELD AND
BRANSON AERODROMES. TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT JOPLIN TO
CONTINUE GUSTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A MINOR WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN THE INVERSION BREAKS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND STRONGER WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE.

KARDELL

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. RH VALUES THROUGH
2-230 PM GOT DOWN INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH 10M
WINDS/AIRPORT SITES GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
STRONGEST OVERALL WIND GUSTS OCCURRED AS INVERSION WEAKENED LATE THIS
MORNING MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS SOME SUBTLE
INDICATION OF SOME MODIFIED GULF AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CWFA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE GENERAL DISCUSSION)...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING...DO NOT EXPECT GREAT
HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. AS WITH PAST SHIFTS...STRAIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
USELESS FOR DEW POINTS...AND GRIDS ARE MODIFIED DOWNWARD.

FOR THU...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH/DEW POINTS EXPECTED...IN
COORDINATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT GO WITH A
WATCH...BUT NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 312014
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH
FULL SUNSHINE UNDERWAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE 80S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR OF A SLIGHTLY MODIFYING AIR MASS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN FROM THE WESTERN DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...DEW
POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. IT'S
THIS INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT MAY PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
FORCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER EXAGGERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
SEVERELY BEATEN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CREATE
QUALITY MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UP TO 500
J/KG OF M.L CAPE WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE...THESE VALUES
MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

HOWEVER...IF THE EAST TEXAS MID 50 DEW POINT AIR MASS CAN ADVECT
INTO SW MO PRIOR TO FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH I THINK WILL
HAPPEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
FORECASTED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH...THIS RISK SEEMS VERY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP BOOST INSTABILITY
LEVELS JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. FLOODING MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION.

LINGERING CONVECTION IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...MOST LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS AS THE WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS
READINGS SHOOT BACK INTO THE 70S.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WARM FRONT
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY COULD
TRIGGER SOME MINOR CONVECTION. THIS SMALLER DETAIL WILL BE BETTER
UNDERSTOOD WITH TIME AND IS MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE CLOSER TO WHEN THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOMETIME AROUND THE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE WOULD LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

SOME AWIPS GLITCHES DELAY THIS DISCUSSION...FOR THE 31/1800Z
KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT A STRONG LOW LEVEL S-SSW FLOW TO
CONTINUE...POSSIBLY SOMEWHAT STRONGER ON THU AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN ALL TAFS FOR TONIGHT. DSA

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM. RH VALUES THROUGH
2-230 PM GOT DOWN INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH 10M
WINDS/AIRPORT SITES GENERALLY AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
STRONGEST OVERALL WIND GUSTS OCCURRED AS INVERSION WEAKENED LATE THIS
MORNING MIXING DOWN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS SOME SUBTLE
INDICATION OF SOME MODIFIED GULF AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CWFA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE (AS MENTIONED
IN THE GENERAL DISCUSSION)...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FROM WEST TO EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING...DO NOT EXPECT GREAT
HUMIDITY RECOVERY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED HEIGHTENED FIRE
DANGER. AS WITH PAST SHIFTS...STRAIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
USELESS FOR DEW POINTS...AND GRIDS ARE MODIFIED DOWNWARD.

FOR THU...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH/DEW POINTS EXPECTED...IN
COORDINATION WITH SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL NOT GO WITH A
WATCH...BUT NEXT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. DSA

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311928
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS. LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. WITH
FULL SUNSHINE UNDERWAY...TEMPERATURES SOARED INTO THE 80S IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE OZARKS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WITHIN A WARM
SECTOR OF A SLIGHTLY MODIFYING AIRMASS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...925-850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER CONTINUES
TO STREAM IN FROM THE WESTERN DESERTS. AT THE SURFACE...DEW
POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. IT'S
THIS INCREASE IN SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT MAY PROVIDE THE REGION
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT.

AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
FORCE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER EXAGGERATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
SEVERELY BEATEN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CREATE
QUALITY MOISTURE CONTENT. WHILE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING UP TO 500
J/KG OF M.L CAPE WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE...THESE VALUES
MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

HOWEVER...IF THE EAST TEXAS MID 50 DEW POINT AIRMASS CAN ADVECT
INTO SW MO PRIOR TO FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH I THINK WILL
HAPPEN...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT SE KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE
FORECASTED SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH...THIS RISK SEEMS VERY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HELP BOOST INSTABILITY
LEVELS JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. FLOODING MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION.

LINGERING CONVECTION IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY OUT OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. BUT
FOR THE MOST PART...MOST LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS AS THE WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS FORECASTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY AS
READINGS SHOOT BACK INTO THE 70S.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WARM FRONT
TRANSLATING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON MONDAY COULD
TRIGGER SOME MINOR CONVECTION. THIS SMALLER DETAIL WILL BE BETTER
UNDERSTOOD WITH TIME AND IS MORE OF A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE CLOSER TO WHEN THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

ANOTHER DECENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOMETIME AROUND THE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS
FEATURE WOULD LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 311440
FTMSGF
Message Date: Mar 31 2010 14:40:43

KSGF RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE UNTIL 1015 CDT. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 311151
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
651 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS THE REGION SQUARELY IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS HAVE STAYED BREEZY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS STILL NEARING 30 MPH IN THE
OSAGE PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES STAY QUITE MILD THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SPLENDID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME. THIS WILL
NOT COME WITHOUT ITS ON PERILS...HOWEVER...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTING CONTINUED CONCERNS FOR
TODAY. WILL STILL OBSERVED OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS...THOUGH THIS
WILL NOT LIMIT SUNSHINE MUCH IF AT ALL. 925/850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AREA WIDE. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...00Z MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKING DISTURBANCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING OR
INTENSITY IS NOTED. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
BLOSSOM ALONG A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND MORESO FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC
MOISTURE RECOVERY STILL LOOKING ON THE MEAGER SIDE...LOW/MID 50S
AT BEST...THUS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. STILL NEED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND IN MIND...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...EXITING STAGE
EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY ONWARD...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...WITH MID 70S
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH MID MORNING
AIDED BY AN 850MB SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KNOTS. SOUTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

ANGLE

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE AREA WILL STRADDLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MIN
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND
FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 7 PERCENT. WHILE 20 FT WINDS
LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA...GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP 30 MPH
ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE.
THIS PRIMARY CONCERN IS FINER FUELS...SUCH AS PRAIRIE GRASSES...
WHICH WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID AND INTENSE FIRE GROWTH.

PER THE REQUEST OF THE USFS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WILL REMAIN
UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT FINER FUELS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE LATEST INFO
FROM THE USFS INDICATES THAT SHRUB MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH VISUAL GREENNESS ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WHICH IS A LITTLE AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MIN RH VALUES WILL STRADDLE
CRITERIA IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH 20 FT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA. CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA
CONTINUE TO BE ANY PRAIRIE GRASSLANDS WHICH HAVE YET TO FULLY
GREEN AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH GIVEN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. INTERAGENCY AND WFO
COORDINATION WILL OCCUR AT START OF THE WORKDAY TO DETERMINE THE
NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310830
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE CONTINUE TO BE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HAS THE REGION SQUARELY IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS HAVE STAYED BREEZY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS STILL NEARING 30 MPH IN THE
OSAGE PLAINS. THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS...HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES STAY QUITE MILD THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SPLENDID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME. THIS WILL
NOT COME WITHOUT ITS ON PERILS...HOWEVER...PLEASE REFER TO THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTING CONTINUED CONCERNS FOR
TODAY. WILL STILL OBSERVED OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS...THOUGH THIS
WILL NOT LIMIT SUNSHINE MUCH IF AT ALL. 925/850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
WARMEST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AREA WIDE. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD GIVEN CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...00Z MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKING DISTURBANCE. LITTLE CHANGE TO TIMING OR
INTENSITY IS NOTED. STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO
BLOSSOM ALONG A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND MORESO FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC
MOISTURE RECOVERY STILL LOOKING ON THE MEAGER SIDE...LOW/MID 50S
AT BEST...THUS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. STILL NEED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WIND IN MIND...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...EXITING STAGE
EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY ONWARD...STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...WITH MID 70S
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A CLEAR SKY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONED EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS REGION. AN
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL PRODUCE WINDS SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OF PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF AREA TERMINALS.

HATCH

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

THE AREA WILL STRADDLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY. MIN
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AND
FUEL MOISTURE SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 7 PERCENT. WHILE 20 FT WINDS
LOOK TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA...GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP 30 MPH
ACROSS THE OSAGE PLAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE.
THIS PRIMARY CONCERN IS FINER FUELS...SUCH AS PRAIRIE GRASSES...
WHICH WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID AND INTENSE FIRE GROWTH.

PER THE REQUEST OF THE USFS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...WILL REMAIN
UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS BEEN
DETERMINED THAT FINER FUELS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION THE LATEST INFO
FROM THE USFS INDICATES THAT SHRUB MOISTURE IS AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH VISUAL GREENNESS ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WHICH IS A LITTLE AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MIN RH VALUES WILL STRADDLE
CRITERIA IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH 20 FT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA. CONCERNS FOR THIS AREA
CONTINUE TO BE ANY PRAIRIE GRASSLANDS WHICH HAVE YET TO FULLY
GREEN AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH GIVEN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. INTERAGENCY AND WFO
COORDINATION WILL OCCUR AT START OF THE WORKDAY TO DETERMINE THE
NEED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.

GAGAN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310449
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE
RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPIRE AT
7PM. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DIURNALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP INTO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL NOT LIKELY PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RECOVERY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT ON THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HATCH

&&

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

A LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH. NO SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAIN ABSENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...A CLEAR SKY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONED EXPECTED FOR THE OZARKS REGION. AN
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL PRODUCE WINDS SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN OF PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF AREA TERMINALS.

HATCH

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY RECOVER INTO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES...WILL ACT
TO KEEP ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE TODAY...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. THIS INCREASE WILL
BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND WEST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE. FINER FUELS
SUCH AS PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID
AND INTENSE FIRE GROWTH.

THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...REMAIN UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINER FUELS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL. FUEL
LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO
12 HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-
102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 310104
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE
RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON TO EXPIRE AT
7PM. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...LIMITED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DIURNALLY
COOLING TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP INTO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL NOT LIKELY PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE RECOVERY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT ON THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING SUPPORT THIS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
WEDNESDAY...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HATCH

&&

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

A LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH. NO SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAIN ABSENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FLIGHT HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE TENDS TO DECOUPLE. AT THAT
TIME...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME LIKELY AS STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45KT REMAIN ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

KARDELL

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD ONLY RECOVER INTO
THE 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE REGION...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES...WILL ACT
TO KEEP ENHANCED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER THOSE TODAY...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. THIS INCREASE WILL
BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND WEST OF A VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE. FINER FUELS
SUCH AS PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID
AND INTENSE FIRE GROWTH.

THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...REMAIN UNDER A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINER FUELS ACROSS THE FORESTED AREAS ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL. FUEL
LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO
12 HOURS.

HATCH

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-
102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302322
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

A LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH. NO SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAIN ABSENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FLIGHT HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA AS A LEE
SIDE TROUGH INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE TENDS TO DECOUPLE. AT THAT
TIME...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME LIKELY AS STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45KT REMAIN ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

KARDELL

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 20 TO 28
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARNING HERE. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED OR BRIEFLY MET THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF 65 AND NORTH OF THE PLATEAU.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW MINOR
DIFFERENCES. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME. AM
THEREFORE EXPECTING SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY SERVICE...THE DEPARTMENT OF
CONSERVATION...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...WE DECIDED TO HOIST A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A
VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE. FINER FUELS SUCH AS
PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE
GROWTH.

THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINER FUELS ACROSS THE
FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN
AND SNOWFALL. FUEL LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-
102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 302019
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

A LARGE SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRE WEATHER WAS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION...WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME CHALLENGES FOR TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS CELSIUS...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE FOR
HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD COME UP A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AS
BETTER MOISTURE SLOWLY ADVECTS NORTH. NO SHOT AT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS LIFTING MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAIN ABSENT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...A 45 - 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ASSUME A
POSITION DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS. MEANWHILE...NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 20 TO 28
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING MET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARNING HERE. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE APPROACHED OR BRIEFLY MET THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF 65 AND NORTH OF THE PLATEAU.

CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW MINOR
DIFFERENCES. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INCREASE A FEW DEGREES OVER
THOSE OF TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME. AM
THEREFORE EXPECTING SIMILAR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS. THIS
INCREASE WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE FORESTRY SERVICE...THE DEPARTMENT OF
CONSERVATION...AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS...WE DECIDED TO HOIST A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A
VERSAILLES TO BUFFALO TO ANDERSON LINE. FINER FUELS SUCH AS
PRAIRIE GRASSES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE
GROWTH.

THE REST OF THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FINER FUELS ACROSS THE
FORESTED AREAS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DAMP DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN
AND SNOWFALL. FUEL LEVELS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THESE AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ057-058-070-071-081-082-091-092-095>097-
102>105.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055-056-
066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094-101.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301855
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..LONG TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE...

UPDATE...

NUDGED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND MORNING RAOB. DESPITE FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVING LITTLE PROBLEM CLIMBING GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HOURLY DEW POINT AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY GRIDS AS AREA SOUNDINGS...KSGF...KOUN...KTOP...KSHV...ALL
INDICATE QUITE A DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE DECK. THIS WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON FIRE WEATHER. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. FINALLY...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ABOUT 5 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

LONG TERM (FRIDAY - TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION BY FRIDAY. THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND HAVE LEANED
OUR FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECWMF. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING...SLOWLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OZARKS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF QUALITY GULF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY MODEST...WITH MODELS
PRELIMINARILY ONLY SHOWING LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE
RETURN...MODELS DEVELOP QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN MISSOURI
REGION. HAVE PLACED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THESE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. THEREFORE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S...AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.

CRAMER

&&

AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...A 45 - 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ASSUME A
POSITION DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS. MEANWHILE...NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE AT THE NOON HOUR. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT WEDNESDAY FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION/UPGRADE OF
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301714
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..AVIATION UPDATE...

UPDATE...

NUDGED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND MORNING RAOB. DESPITE FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVING LITTLE PROBLEM CLIMBING GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HOURLY DEW POINT AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY GRIDS AS AREA SOUNDINGS...KSGF...KOUN...KTOP...KSHV...ALL
INDICATE QUITE A DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE DECK. THIS WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON FIRE WEATHER. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. FINALLY...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ABOUT 5 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...A 45 - 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ASSUME A
POSITION DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY...WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASING WINDS. MEANWHILE...NO LOW CEILINGS OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CRAMER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE AT THE NOON HOUR. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT WEDNESDAY FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION/UPGRADE OF
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301706
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER...

UPDATE...

NUDGED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY BASED ON SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND MORNING RAOB. DESPITE FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE HAVING LITTLE PROBLEM CLIMBING GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED HOURLY DEW POINT AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY GRIDS AS AREA SOUNDINGS...KSGF...KOUN...KTOP...KSHV...ALL
INDICATE QUITE A DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE DECK. THIS WILL HAVE BIG
IMPACTS ON FIRE WEATHER. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. FINALLY...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ABOUT 5 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SCHAUMANN

&&

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE
CIRRUS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA VARY A BIT...WITH SHELTERED AREAS DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND AREAS RECEIVING WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SPLENDID WEATHER IS ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS WE WILL FINALLY ENJOY MORE THAN TWO DAYS OF
SPRING LIKE TEMPS IN SUCCESSION. UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY. THE BREEZIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED/THU. 925/850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS CORRELATES TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 80S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE
PLATEAU WED/THUR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
BOTTOM LINE IS BREEZY AND WARM FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z SUITE OF MODEL
OUTPUT CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SFC FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH (MID 50S) TO AID IN SUSTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE MODE
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE GIVEN NIGHTTIME TIMING...
WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...GIVE OR TAKE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO NEAR 55
KNOTS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANGLE

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE AT THE NOON HOUR. SUSTAINED WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT WEDNESDAY FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION/UPGRADE OF
CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>079-088>090-093>095-101>103.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 301154
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
654 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE
CIRRUS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA VARY A BIT...WITH SHELTERED AREAS DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND AREAS RECEIVING WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SPLENDID WEATHER IS ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS WE WILL FINALLY ENJOY MORE THAN TWO DAYS OF
SPRING LIKE TEMPS IN SUCCESSION. UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY. THE BREEZIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED/THU. 925/850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS CORRELATES TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 80S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE
PLATEAU WED/THUR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
BOTTOM LINE IS BREEZY AND WARM FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z SUITE OF MODEL
OUTPUT CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SFC FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH (MID 50S) TO AID IN SUSTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE MODE
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE GIVEN NIGHTTIME TIMING...
WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...GIVE OR TAKE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO NEAR 55
KNOTS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANGLE

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO OVERDO DEWPOINT VALUES AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME CASES. AS PREV FORECASTER INDICATED...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ARE MARGINAL AND LOOK TO ONLY BE MET
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FROM ANY HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FORECAST 20 FT WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FUEL MOISTURE DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT
YESTERDAY...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY SEEN SO FAR THIS MORNING. GIVEN
WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS...THESE VALUES SHOULD LOWER EVEN FURTHER
TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH PRAIRIE GRASSES
IN THE OSAGE PLAINS. INTERAGENCY COORDINATION WILL TAKE PLACE
TODAY TO ADDRESS THE STATE OF THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. WILL ALLOW
THIS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION TO DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT WILL KICK UP WORDING IN THE FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS. EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THAT A RED FLAG WATCH OR
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ066-067-077-078-088-089-093-094.

KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300832
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

CURRENTLY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS SHIFTING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
TIGHTENING WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE SKY HAS BEEN CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A LITTLE
CIRRUS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA VARY A BIT...WITH SHELTERED AREAS DIPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S AND AREAS RECEIVING WINDS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SPLENDID WEATHER IS ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS WE WILL FINALLY ENJOY MORE THAN TWO DAYS OF
SPRING LIKE TEMPS IN SUCCESSION. UPPER RIDGING WILL HAVE FIRM
CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER REGIME WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY GUSTY. THE BREEZIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE WED/THU. 925/850
MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS CORRELATES TO
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY...WITH 80S POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE
PLATEAU WED/THUR. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WHICH ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
BOTTOM LINE IS BREEZY AND WARM FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z SUITE OF MODEL
OUTPUT CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SFC FRONT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH (MID 50S) TO AID IN SUSTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND DECENT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS. AT THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE MODE
LOOKS TO BE LINEAR IN NATURE. DECENT SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE LACKING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE MEAGER SIDE GIVEN NIGHTTIME TIMING...
WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...GIVE OR TAKE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND WE SHOULD SALVAGE THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S.

GAGAN

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20
KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE
JOPLIN TERMINAL TONIGHT AND ALL AREA TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

FOSTER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO OVERDO DEWPOINT VALUES AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY
SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME CASES. AS PREV FORECASTER INDICATED...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR TODAY ARE MARGINAL AND LOOK TO ONLY BE MET
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY MARGINAL SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FROM ANY HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DIFFERENT STORY.
FORECAST 20 FT WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FUEL MOISTURE DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT
YESTERDAY...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY SEEN SO FAR THIS MORNING. GIVEN
WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS...THESE VALUES SHOULD LOWER EVEN FURTHER
TODAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH PRAIRIE GRASSES
IN THE OSAGE PLAINS. INTERAGENCY COORDINATION WILL TAKE PLACE
TODAY TO ADDRESS THE STATE OF THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. WILL ALLOW
THIS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION TO DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT WILL KICK UP WORDING IN THE FWF AND HWO
PRODUCTS. EXPECTATIONS CONTINUE TO BE THAT A RED FLAG WATCH OR
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Monday, March 29, 2010

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 300449
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FEATURE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON FIRE WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE ALREADY
HAVING AN IMPACT IN THE LOW LEVELS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS NOTED
INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CRANK UP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL ONLY INCREASE AND SPREAD
EAST AS WE GET TOWARDS MIDWEEK. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND. MODELS PROG 925 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE TEENS
CELSIUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PLATEAU. MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE. BUOYS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE LOWER 40 DEW POINTS WITH A
HOWLING NORTHWEST WIND. THUS THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SLUG
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IS THE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WE
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE DRY DAY THIS WEEKEND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS WILL EXCEED 20
KTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT THE
JOPLIN TERMINAL TONIGHT AND ALL AREA TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.

FOSTER

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN STARTING TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR. MODELS SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW
POINTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THIS AREA...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SECOND...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE MET FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AT BEST. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BIGGER DAY.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRAIRIE
GRASS. 10 HOUR FUEL STICKS EVEN TODAY ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS OVER
MANY AREAS. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...AN EVENTUAL WATCH AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292336
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FEATURE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON FIRE WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE ALREADY
HAVING AN IMPACT IN THE LOW LEVELS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS NOTED
INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CRANK UP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL ONLY INCREASE AND SPREAD
EAST AS WE GET TOWARDS MIDWEEK. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND. MODELS PROG 925 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE TEENS
CELSIUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PLATEAU. MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE. BUOYS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE LOWER 40 DEW POINTS WITH A
HOWLING NORTHWEST WIND. THUS THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SLUG
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IS THE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WE
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE DRY DAY THIS WEEKEND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A CLEAR SKY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
REGION IN VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS...GUSTING TO
30MPH AT TIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT TAF FORECAST.

HATCH

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN STARTING TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR. MODELS SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW
POINTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THIS AREA...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SECOND...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE MET FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AT BEST. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BIGGER DAY.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRAIRIE
GRASS. 10 HOUR FUEL STICKS EVEN TODAY ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS OVER
MANY AREAS. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...AN EVENTUAL WATCH AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 292014
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL FEATURE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WAS ON FIRE WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AS
A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE ALREADY
HAVING AN IMPACT IN THE LOW LEVELS. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH GOOD PRESSURE FALLS NOTED
INTO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CRANK UP ACROSS THIS REGION...AND WILL ONLY INCREASE AND SPREAD
EAST AS WE GET TOWARDS MIDWEEK. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE A SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING TREND. MODELS PROG 925 MB TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE TEENS
CELSIUS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
PLATEAU. MODELS ARE TOO QUICK TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE. BUOYS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE LOWER 40 DEW POINTS WITH A
HOWLING NORTHWEST WIND. THUS THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...WHICH CAN BE VIEWED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT SLUG
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
CONSENSUS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT IS THE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO WE
MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT ONE DRY DAY THIS WEEKEND.

SCHAUMANN

&&

AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING RIDGE WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST IS THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR LATER ON TUESDAY. WHILE
SHEAR VALUES MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP NEARING 18Z AT JLN...THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IMPACT LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

CCC

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN STARTING TUESDAY WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT 20 FOOT WINDS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 71
CORRIDOR. MODELS SEEM TOO AGGRESSIVE RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH...SO HAVE UNDERCUT ALL FORMS OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO DEW
POINTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THIS AREA...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
FIRST...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
SECOND...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE MET FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AT BEST. FINALLY...WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH BIGGER DAY.

AS FOR WEDNESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRAIRIE
GRASS. 10 HOUR FUEL STICKS EVEN TODAY ARE IN THE LOWER TEENS OVER
MANY AREAS. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...AN EVENTUAL WATCH AND/OR
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

SCHAUMANN

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Area Forecast Discussion - South Central/Southwest Missouri

FXUS63 KSGF 291722
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010

..UPDATE TO AVIATION...

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEALS WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO A STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...LEAVING
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARDS THE AREA BUT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S EAST TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK...WHEN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN POSSIBLY THE LOW
80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE...AND WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL
OUTPUT WITH REGARDS TO NEXT WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING
IS BETTER AGREED UPON. STILL PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

WISE

&&

AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING RIDGE WILL ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST IS THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR LATER ON TUESDAY. WHILE
SHEAR VALUES MAY BEGIN TO PICK UP NEARING 18Z AT JLN...THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH IMPACT LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.

CCC

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$


Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 291532
FTMSGF
Message Date: Mar 29 2010 15:32:22

KSGF RADAR IS OPERATIONAL. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Radar Notification Message - Springfield

NOUS63 KSGF 291420
FTMSGF
Message Date: Mar 29 2010 14:20:28

KSGF RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE UNTIL 1030 CDT. ÿÿ

Weather Information from www.artmorris.com

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Great week ahead

Won't have to post much this coming week.
Great, calm weather ahead. Highs in the 70's several days this week.
No rain in the forecast, until possibly Saturday.
We'll see.
Art

Saturday, March 27, 2010

600pm weather update

600pm - Looks like most of the heavy weather is east and south of us.  However, there are a couple of decent t-storms in the area.  Everything continues moving  towards the northeast.

Significant weather alert until 515pm

This alert is for a small storm moving toward Wentworth.  Should continue moving NE.  SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...  AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RITCHEY...OR 12 MILES EAST OF NEOSHO... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE WENTWORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF  NEWTON COUNTY.  INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32 AND 50 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

Hail at Seneca

WEATHER: Hail reported at 2:55pm at Seneca in Newton county.  Development continues, but no warnings.

Potential for severe weather this afternoon

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...    A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF   PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH   AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.    AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING...    STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREA AND TIMING...ALONG AND WEST   OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO SPRINGFIELD TO GAINESVILLE BETWEEN   3 PM AND 9 PM.    FLOODING TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND   OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.    DISCUSSION...    A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH   CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO   THE OZARKS TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND   SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THIS   AFTERNOON...THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE   OVER THE REGION. IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUFFICIENTLY   BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES...THE STORMS WILL HAVE AN   INCREASING CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE.    THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE   MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.   HOWEVER...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS   THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AS SOILS   REMAIN SATURATED FROM RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. A FLOOD WATCH   REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA INTO SUNDAY   MORNING.

Saturday Morning forecast discussion

Early Saturday morning, here's the forecast discussion from the National
Weather Service:
Art


A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TODAY THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE
RETURN. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT REALLY ANY DEEP RICH GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AS THE GULF IS PRETTY SCOURED OUT FROM THE LAST SYSTEM
THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE CLOSE TO VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT DOES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A COLD CORE ALOFT. THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AND THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR WILL BE
QUITE STRONG GIVEN THE LOCATION TO THE LOW. THERE WILL DEFINITELY
BE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF GOOD
MOISTURE...STORM BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH LIMITING ANY TORNADO
THREAT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS EVENING...A LINE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE NEARING THE MO/AR
BORDER...WHERE A SEVERE WIND THREAT COULD OCCUR. FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

AN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF
INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED FROM THE
RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE AFFECTED THE REGION. THEREFORE...FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT WILL TAKE LITTLE RUNOFF TO HAVE RISES ON
AREA STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME AND COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE.

Friday, March 26, 2010

Election preview

The Aurora Advertiser has several stories outlining the candidates for
the April 6th School Board and City elections. Click below to read.
http://www.auroraadvertiser.net/

Forecast Discussion

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OZARKS FROM 1 PM SATURDAY
THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL
WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE REGION.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BE AVAILABLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Weekend storms?

Most of the forecasters, including the National Weather Service think the next storm this weekend might be strong enough to produce some severe weather, especially hail.  So, we’ll keep an eye on the forecast.  Friday looks really nice.  Rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Then, next week, there’s at least two days with 70’s. 

Next storm coming this weekend.

Today's storm is moving out.
Looking forward to the weekend, there's another chance of storms.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR FLOODING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL.

Flash Flood Warning - Stone & Taney counties

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1028 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL STONE INTO
WESTERN TANEY COUNTY. WITH ALREADY MOIST SOIL
CONDITIONS...THIS RAIN WILL GO INTO RUNOFF QUICKLY CAUSING THE
FLOODING OF LOW WATER AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR OVER THE NUMEROUS LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN THE
WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

Flash Flood Warning for Barry County

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 932 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE WARNING AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY AN
INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 1 PM. THE SATURATED GROUND
FROM RECENT RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION TO
GO INTO RUNOFF CAUSING RAPID RISES ON CREEKS WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO FLOOD LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW WATER AREAS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CASSVILLE...MONETT...EXETER...PURDY...SELIGMAN...WASHBURN...
WHEATON...TABLE ROCK LAKE...ROARING RIVER STATE PARK...HIGHWAY 39
AT FLAT CREEK NEAR JENKINS...HIGHWAY 39 AT FLAT CREEK SOUTH OF
JENKINS...HIGHWAY 76 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF CASSVILLE...ROUTE C JUST
SOUTH OF MCDOWELL...ROUTE U...1 MILE EAST OF BUTTERFIELD...ROUTE
U...8 MILES EAST OF PURDY AND ROUTE Y AT FLAT CREEK JUST NORTHEAST
OF CASSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

Pouring buckets

It's pouring buckets here in Aurora. I was just down at Journagan's
hardware, where they're mopping up the rain pouring in the front door.
Flash Flood Warnings still in effects for Barton, Jasper and Newton
counties. They just added McDonald county to the Flash Flood Wanring.
wouldn't be surprised to see them extend those warnings into Lawrence
and Barry counties soon.
Art

Art's Thought- pouring down rain

800am - I've been watching the radar for a couple of hours. Moderate to
heavy rain continues across much of southwest Missouri.
Flash Flood warnings have been posted for Jasper, Newton and part of
Barton counties in Missouri and Crawford & Cherokee counties in Kansas.
Those areas are outlined in green on the radar map. Movement of the
rain is very slow, so expect the rain to last for a while.
Art

Hazardous weather outlook

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALIZED
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
44 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT FOR FLOODING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY ALSO EXIST FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.